The opening weekend of 2026 boosted the Kentucky Derby (G1) chances for prospects trained by Mark Casse and Brad Cox as a few of their newly-turned 3-year-olds came through with promising efforts in races in Arkansas, Florida, and New York.
The results saw Casse colts finish 1-2 in the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, colts from Cox’s barn won the $175,000 Mucho Man Stakes on Friday at Gulfstream Park, and the $150,000 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday.
Strategic Risk ($7) and Silent Tactic gave Casse two new colts on the road to the Derby to go along with the promising Ewing, 2-for-2 and winner of the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2).
Strategic Risk, ridden by Hall of Famer Javier Castellano, pulled away for a 4 ½-length win over Silent Tactic in the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones, the first of four Kentucky Derby prep races at Oaklawn Park.
“I told him (Castellano), looking at everything, I said: ‘I don’t think they can beat him,’ ‘’ Casse said in relating his pre-race conversation with the jockey. “We felt pretty confident going in.”
Casse was also impressed with Silent Tactic, who was bothered along the backstretch but “he came running.
“That was his first dirt race, so I think he’ll move forward as well,’’ Casse added.
Strategic Risk will remain with Casse’s string of horses in Oaklawn and train for the $1 million Southwest Stakes (G3) on Jan. 31. An allowance race is likely next for Silent Tactic.
On Friday (Jan. 2), Cox-trained Commandment came rolling into the stretch and pulled away from the field for 6 ¾-length win the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park. A day later at Aqueduct, My World ($7.24) posted a two-length victory over 7-10 favorite Balboa in the Jerome Stakes.
With Derby qualifying points of 10-5-3-2-1 to the top five finishers in the Smarty Jones and Jerome (which could be reduced to 75% of those totals due to five or less runner), My World is currently No. 10 on the Derby points leaderboard and Strategic Risk at No. 11. Silent Tactic earned 5 points for his runner-up finish. The Mucho Macho Man was not a Derby prep, but a stepping stone to the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) on Jan. 31.
With 13 Derby preps concluded and 23 more to go before the Run for the Roses on May 2, Ted Noffey is No. 1 on the Kentucky Derby prep races leaderboard with 40 points.
The unbeaten colt (4-0) trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher has won three straight Grade 1s, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar on Nov. 1. He’s a lock to be voted an Eclipse Award as the 2-year-old male champion when the winners are announced on Jan. 22.
Ted Noffey is training in Florida for his 3-year-old debut, which could come in the Holy Bull at the end of the month.
At No. 2 is Litmus Test, trained by six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert. The $875,000 colt won the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) last month and has 19 points.
With Jaime Rodriguez aboard, My World took the lead from 7-10 favorite Balboa late and won by two lengths in a field of four after Mailata was scratched.
With four horses in this Derby prep, the points awarded become 50% of the original total of 10-5-3-2-1.
My World improved to 3-for-4 with his third win in a row. He won the Nashua Stakes at the Big A in November in his previous start, with Cox opting to skip the Remsen Stakes (G2).
“We skipped the Remsen for this one to give him more time,” said Dustin Dugas, Cox’s Belmont Park-based assistant. “He's a smaller horse and the other race was a mile and an eighth, so this gives him another mile race under his belt and then maybe we can step forward with some more distance. He's really improving -- mentally more so than anything.”
A bit under the radar Saturday at the Big A, the $175,000 Busanda Stakes for 3-year-old fillies was a big step forward for qualifying for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) on May 1.
Dazzling Dame, the 2-1 second betting choice in a field of five fillies, went to the front early under Jevian Toledo and cruised to victory by 11 11 ¼ lengths.
It was the fourth win in five starts for the 3-year-old filly trained by Maryland-based Brittany Russell.
The 1-mile race offered Oaks qualifying points of 20-10-6-4-2 to the top five finishers, but those numbers will change – if a race has a five-horse field, only 75% of the standard points are awarded.
Nonetheless, it’s onward on the Oaks trail. Upcoming Oaks preps on the East Coast include the 1 1/16-mile Virginia Oaks on March 14 at Colonial Downs (50-25-15-10-5 points) and the 1 1/8-mile Gazelle Stakes (G3) on April 4 at the Big A (100-50-25-15-10 points).
“I think we'd be silly not to try,” Russell said. “There's also the Colonial way to it. It might be interesting for us from where we are. We'll keep all options on the table.”
Commandment ($3) was dominant in his 6 ¾-length romp in the Mucho Macho Man, going a mile. No Derby points in this one, but the impressive showing puts him on the Florida path to the Derby, with three preps offering qualifying points at Gulfstream.
“Big performance,” Cox said of the colt who has won two of three starts. “I started him off three-quarters, and we thought that he would stretch out off his first run with the big gallop out in his race. We brought him along step by step – I guess furlong by furlong – and he’s responded well.
The next Florida preps are the Holy Bull at the end of the month and the Fountain of Youth (G2) in February. Irad Ortiz, Jr., was aboard for the win.
“We’ll talk it over with the (owners) and come up with a
plan, but it will definitely be around two turns,” Cox said. “We have to give him that shot. He acts like he’s going to be able to do it. Irad seemed pretty confident after the race, so we’ll see where we are.”
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
