The plot lines are plentiful, the betting options bountiful, and the fashion statements bold and beautiful: Horseplayers and racing fans, it’s time for the Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs.
And what an unpredictable field! Speed horses are breaking from favorable inside posts, closers breaking from favorable outside posts, and the favorite – Journalism at 3-1 on the morning-line – leaving from near the middle out of gate 8 in a 19-horse field.
So, when 11-time Olympic medalist Simone Biles calls for ‘Riders Up!’ prior to the Derby, everyone will know that post time (6:57 p.m. ET) is not far away. Are you ready?
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is back for the first time in four years after being suspended by Churchill Downs, Inc. In his bid to become the first trainer to win the Derby seven times, the white-haired trainer sends out 20-1 Citizen Bull from the No. 1 post.
He also was set to send out Wood Memorial (G2) winner Rodriguez, but the speedy colt was scratched on Thursday with a foot bruise. Baeza, the lone eligible move, also enters the field for trainer Michael McCarthy.
“It’s good to be back on the scene,’’ said Baffert.
Journalism is all set for the 1 ¼-mile Derby as he looks to become the first favorite to win the race since Justify in 2018. The imposing colt has beaten Baffert’s best and brings a four-race winning streak to the 151st Derby.
“With a horse like him, he gives you a lot of confidence,’’ McCarthy said.
Grande, an improving colt for two-time Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher, was a vet scratch the day before the race due to a cracked heel on his right front foot.
The scratch came a day after Rodriguez was scratched, leaving the Wood Memorial.
Lonnie Briley, the 72-year-old Louisiana trainer in his first Derby, has a sentimental favorite in Coal Battle. He was among half the field entered at 30-1 odds despite winning the Smarty Jones and the Rebel Stakes (G2) and running third in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
“Never even dreamed about it, in truth,” said Briley in a recent interview. “Just didn't think I was going to get here. You watch the Derby on TV but don't think about running in it.”
There’s 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas, the Hall of Famer, seeking a fifth Derby win with American Promise (30-1). Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen is 0-for-26 in the Derby and sends out a pair: Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Tiztastic (20-1) and maiden Publisher (30-1).
Two trainers, Bill Mott and Brad Cox, have a Derby victory, but would like to feel what it’s like to cross the finish line first in front of 150,000 roaring fans. In 2019, Mott’s Country House was declared the official winner after Maximum Security was disqualified; in 2021, Cox’s Mandaloun was eventually declared the winner after Baffert’s Medina Spirit was disqualified.
Mott sends out 5-1 second choice Sovereignty with Junior Alvarado back in the irons, while Cox saddles 30-1 Final Gambit, racing for the first time on dirt.
And then there’s Japan. A year ago, Forever Young nearly gave the country its first Derby victory but finished third in a three-horse photo. On Saturday, Japan will be represented by two colts – Luxor Cafe (15-1) and Admire Daytona (30-1).
Who’s the winner? Despite the odds that there were just three horses at less than 12-1 on the morning line, this Derby will be a frontrunner versus a closer (no matter the odds). If you believe speed will carry the day over 1 ¼ miles, look to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Citizen Bull and Luxor Cafe (15-1) -- even Neoequos(30-1) -- all of whom need to break well from inside posts. Baeza, the Santa Anita Derby runner-up, also likes to run up front (he breaks from the No. 20 post).
Sovereignty, winner of the Fountain of Youth (G2) and second in the Florida Derby (G1), is sure to put in a late run from an outside post, while 6-1 third choice Sandman is an even deeper closer as seen in his Arkansas Derby win.
“He’s a big boy and he’s happy,’’ said Mark Casse, who trains Sandman. “Churchill Downs is home for him. He’s thrived since arriving. I’m expecting big things from him.”
Burnham Square leaves from the middle of the pack and displayed his closing style by winning the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). He’ll be ridden by Brian Hernandez, Jr., who won last year’s Derby aboard Mystik Dan.
Umberto Rispoli, who rides Journalism, believes he’s starting in a great spot, where he can keep tabs on the early leaders and make any adjustments needed.
“I want to get him into a good spot going into the first turn, but I don't want him to be too much in a hurry,’’ he said. “It's going to depend on the pace in front of him.
“He can be a horse near the front. If the pace is crazy fast, he can be toward the back. He has nice gate speed, which you don't see too often for a big horse like him.”
Baffert’s suspension came a week after the 2021 Derby, when his first-place finisher Medina Spirit was DQ’d for a race-day overage of a legal medication. Baffert was banned from Churchill Downs and all other tracks owned by CDI. The suspension ended in July 2024.
Most are happy to have him back, but are also looking forward to beating him.
“I’m excited to have Bob back,’’ said Casse. “We want to win, but we want to beat the best. You don’t want to win with a little asterisk.”
Now that the gang’s all here, let’s lift a Mint Julep and make some money!
