Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager gave bettors their latest early look at the 2026 Kentucky Derby picture, and the message was clear: the pari-mutuel field of “All Other Foals from the 2023 Foal Crop” remains the benchmark, but Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Ted Noffey has emerged as the horse everyone must go through. The four-day Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool, which ran from Thursday through Sunday ahead of Derby 152, saw “All Others” close as the 2-1 favorite, while Ted Noffey finished as the 7-1 second choice among individual interests.
For fans who take Kentucky Derby betting seriously, Pool 2 is usually the first time the market starts to lock in around a small group of realistic contenders. With the Derby still roughly 22 weeks away, it is early, but not so early that the board is guessing blindly.
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As in most recent years, the “All Others” option dominated Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, closing at 2-1. That price reflects both the depth of the 2023 foal crop and the uncertainty that always surrounds 2-year-olds on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Injuries, distance limitations, and late-developing rivals all make it risky to anchor too heavily to a single colt this far out.
From a Kentucky Derby odds standpoint, a 2-1 favorite on “All Others” is a reminder of how wide open this race usually is at this stage. In practical terms, bettors are saying the most likely winner of the Derby is still someone not named among the 39 individual interests in the pool. That is hardly surprising in a landscape where talented maiden winners can surface in December, January, or even later and still make it into the Derby starting gate.
The pricing on “All Others” also signals that the market respects the strength of several barns and sire lines, not just the headline names already on the points leaderboard. Trainers known for developing late-blooming classic types, plus stallions whose offspring tend to improve with distance and maturity, are all implicitly baked into that 2-1 number.
Sitting just behind the field, Ted Noffey closed at 7-1, making him the strongest single horse on the board in Pool 2. That move from his earlier 6-1 morning line into a solid single-digit closing price reflects real confidence from the public.
The Spendthrift Farm colt, trained by Todd Pletcher and sired by Into Mischief, checked almost every “classic prospect” box before Pool 2 even opened. He is unbeaten, boasts a Grade 1 résumé that includes the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and sits atop the Road to the Kentucky Derby points standings. When those credentials meet a powerful ownership group and a Hall of Fame trainer, the market tends to respond quickly.
Ted Noffey’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory at Del Mar was not a fluke. He stalked the pace and won with authority, pairing high-level speed figures with a professional running style that should translate well to longer distances. His tactical speed allows him to secure position, while his finishing kick has held up against some of the best of his crop.
Pedigree-wise, he is exactly the kind of horse that draws early Kentucky Derby betting interest. Into Mischief has already sired multiple Derby winners and classic performers, and Ted Noffey’s dam, Streak of Luck, brings both stamina and class to the page. Combine that with a trainer who has already won the Derby multiple times, and you have a colt who will attract serious money in every future pool unless something goes wrong.
While “All Others” and Ted Noffey dominated the headlines, a handful of other names shaped the Pool 2 Kentucky Derby odds picture. Kentucky Jockey Club winner Further Ado closed at 13-1, making him the only other individual wagering interest to finish below 20-1. His strong prep win and improving profile clearly resonated with bettors looking for a slightly bigger price than Ted Noffey but more security than the rest of the field offered.
Behind them, horses such as Napoleon Solo and several other promising juveniles hovered in the 20-1 to 30-1 range, suggesting that bettors see a second tier of live but less proven prospects. In most years, at least one future Derby winner has passed through this “respectable but not hyped” price band during the futures season.
Running parallel to the main Pool 2, the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager once again highlighted Into Mischief, who attracted heavy support as the favorite among stallions. Between Sovereignty’s classic campaign and Ted Noffey’s juvenile dominance, bettors have every reason to believe the Into Mischief pipeline could produce yet another Derby hero.
For anyone following Kentucky Derby betting year-round, Pool 2 is less about “picking the winner now” and more about understanding how the market is forming. Several key takeaways stand out.
First, the short price on “All Others” confirms that the 2026 Derby remains wide open. Even with a standout juvenile like Ted Noffey, bettors are not willing to abandon the idea that a relatively under-the-radar runner can jump into the conversation between January and April. Historically, that caution has been justified; a long grind of preps, travel, and adversity often reshuffles the deck.
Second, Ted Noffey’s 7-1 closing price tells us that the market considers him the most likely individual winner right now, but not an overwhelming one. A single-digit quote in November is strong, yet it still reflects significant risk: six months is a long time in this game. Any setback, poor prep race, or new breakout star could erode his futures value.
Third, Pool 2 confirms that value hunters will likely need to dig into the middle prices. The line between “legit contender” and “overbet hype” can be thin, especially as public money clusters around the most obvious names. Horses like Further Ado, who combine improving form with double-digit futures odds, are exactly the type that seasoned players track through the winter.
From a strategy standpoint, Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is a reference point for the rest of the prep season. Bettors who backed Ted Noffey at 7-1 are effectively betting that his Kentucky Derby odds on the first Saturday in May will be shorter than that price, and that he actually makes the gate in good shape. Those are both realistic, but far from guaranteed, assumptions.
Players who sat out Ted Noffey in Pool 2 can still use these results to guide future decisions. If his form holds and he shortens to something like 3-1 or 4-1 by Derby week, Pool 2 bettors will have locked in meaningful value. If he stumbles in a prep and drifts back out, the rest of the market may open for latecomers looking for fresh angles.
For now, the main lesson from Pool 2 is simple: the early Kentucky Derby betting market is starting to crystallize around a small group of serious contenders, led by an unbeaten champion in Ted Noffey, but the 2-1 “All Others” price is a constant reminder that the Derby trail is unpredictable.
As the prep races intensify after the New Year and additional Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools open, bettors will have more chances to adjust, hedge, or double down. Pool 2 will stand as the first real snapshot of how the industry views this crop: a strong, deep group where one high-profile star has emerged, but the field still looms large.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
