Updated profiles, with post positions and track odds for the 20 3-year-olds entered for the 151st running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs is Saturday (May 3).
His sire, Justify, swept the 2018 Triple Crown, and his broodmare sire, Tapit, is a world-class stamina influence. But a regal pedigree doesn't necessarily make a horse precocious, and it took six starts for American Promise to break his maiden.
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas immediately threw him into the deep end, where American Promise floundered, finishing seventh in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and fifth in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). Lukas didn't lose faith, and before the Virginia Derby, he said: “He looks like Justify. He's big and imposing with a long stride. Before he was like a big, gangly teenager, he's coming into his own and may finally know where his feet are.”
American Promise picked them up in the 1 1/8-mile stakes at Colonial Downs, running a career top and proving the 89-year-old master correct. He went wire to wire, dominating a so-so field by 7 3/4 lengths in track-record time (1:46 3/5) on a speed-favoring surface, and it was on to the Kentucky Derby.
“This last month, I thought he moved forward as well as a horse could do,” Lukas said. “He's a May foal, so he's only 2, so he's got a little room to grow and develop, and that's exactly what he's doing.”
Lukas has four Kentucky Derby wins, the last one in 1999 with 31-1 shot Charismatic. American Promise's price should be even higher, which will be fine with a Hall of Famer who's pulled so many upsets in the classics. Among his Triple Crown shockers are Oxbow (15-1, 2013 Preakness), Commendable (18-1, 2000 Belmont), and Seize the Grey (9-1, last year's Preakness). Few gave them a chance, and Lukas proved them wrong. Could he do it again? Not impossible, but it will be tough.
Unfortunately for American Promise, graded-stakes winners Rodriguez, Citizen Bull, East Avenue, and Owen Almighty are also need-to-lead types. American Promise's pedigree says he should handle 1 1/4 miles, but the prospect of a speed duel makes him a likely pace casualty. No bet.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
