Bet Santa Anita: American Pharoah, Oak Leaf, Rodeo Drive; History, Analysis, Odd, Picks
The American Pharoah Stakes (G1), Santa Anita’s fall juvenile staple and main prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) every year, was initially contested as the Norfolk Stakes beginning in 1970. It was renamed the Frontrunner Stakes in 2012 and is now named for racings 12th Triple Crown winner, who was victorious in this event in 2014 before going on to capture racing immortality the following May.
Desert Gate. Benoit Photo.
And this race will not only decide who is the top-rated juvenile on the West Coast and earn the winner a spot in the Breeders’ Cup gate via the Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win & You’re In” program, the winner will also stamp himself as one of the top candidates for next year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs.
In addition to a Triple Crown winner, other historically significant names to have won the event through the years include 2-year-old champion Game Winner and Derby winner Nyquist, as champions/millionaires Lookin at Lucky, Dixie Union, Free House, Bertrando, Best Pal, Capote, Snow Chief, Chief’s Crown and Flying Paster.
Last year’s winner Citizen Bull took home the American Pharoah trophy before going on to win the BC Juvenile at Del Mar and the Eclipse Award as 2024’s top 2-year-old for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, who leads all trainers in this race with 13 winners. He was also American Pharoah’s conditioner.
Hall of Fame jockey Alex Solis, who retired from the saddle more than eight years ago, remains the race’s winningest jockey with seven, the first in 1985 with Snow Chief and the last aboard Street Hero in 2008.
American Pharoah Odds
This year six will head to the gate, including two maidens, two facing winners for the first time off their first victories and two emerging from the Del Mar Futurity (G1) in their last starts. Four come from Baffert’s typical arsenal of talented juveniles.
Desert Gate (3-2), who leads the field to post, was second behind stablemate Brant in his Grade 1 debut last out off of two impressive wins in his first two starts. He ran what normally would be a winning effort if not for Brant, so he wouldn’t need to improve much in his first start around two turns. He’ll be close to the pace, but he doesn’t need to be on the lead to win. He won’t offer much value, but he’s definitely a must-use in all exactas and trifectas, if not key on top in these wagers.
Kristofferson (9-5), a $1.15 million yearling purchase, dazzled in his debut, earning big speed figures and a right to be in this field. He’s been working exceptionally well over the surface and as a son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist he is certainly bred to like the 1 1/16-mile distance. He’ll be heavily bet and if he gets his trip up on the lead from the outside post position, he’ll be the leading candidate to beat his stablemate.
Balboa (8-1), who broke his maiden second out by a widening 7 ½ lengths, stepped up to Grade 1 company last time and was no factor in the Del Mar Futurity. To be fair, he had a rough trip and threw in the towel when bumped hard with a rival past the five-sixteenth, so it’s easy to argue that drawing a line through that effort is fair here.
Intrepido (6-1) is coming off a flashy win in a straight maiden event at Del Mar five weeks ago. The son of Maximus Mischief has been working well since that win for trainer Jeff Mullins and is the only runner here to have successfully navigated two turns on the main track. He will surely be up on the engine, if not sitting right behind it, and at a price this colt looks like he has upset possibility.
The maiden Civil Liberty (5-1) was a respectable third in the Del Mar Futurity last out after a bit of a troubled trip down the lane. No, he would not have defeated the top two that day, but he certainly belongs with the top contenders here. A quick early pace only helps his chances.
Baffert’s fourth runner is the well-bred Plutarch (10-1) in a return to dirt off a second in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf (G3) last out. He’s a maiden still and may need a little more seasoning before having an impact at the Grade 1 level.
The American Pharoah has been carded as the day’s third race with a post time of 2:03 p.m. PT.
The field for the $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes (G1), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:
1 Desert Gate (Juan Hernandez, Bob Baffert), 3-2 2 Intrepido (Hector Barrios, Jeff Mullins), 6-1 3 Plutarch (Kazushi Kimura, Bob Baffert), 10-1 4 Civil Liberty (Antonio Fresu, Doug O’Neill), 5-1 5 Balboa (Umberto Rispoli, Bob Baffert), 8-1 6 Kristofferson (Mike Smith, Bob Baffert), 9-5
Bet Oak Leaf: Field of Six
The Oak Leaf Stakes (G1) is back for its 57th running, the name returned to the original after 12 years as the Chandelier Stakes. This race has traditionally been a showcase for some of the best fillies in history, let alone the West Coast.
Some of the most notable names on the winners’ list includes Hall of Famers, champions, Breeders’ Cup winners, millionaires and standout broodmares like It’s In The Air, Bold ‘n Determined, Landaluce, Life’s Magic, Sacahuista, Lite Light, Pleasant Stage, Phone Chatter, Serena’s Song, City Band, Excellent Meeting, Composure, Halfbridled, Sweet Catomine, Stardom Bound, Blind Luck, Songbird, Moonshine Memories, Bellafina, Bast and Princess Noor.
Trainer Bob Baffert has saddled a record 13 winners, four more than fellow Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, who hadn’t raced horses on the Southern California circuit regularly for almost two decades before he passed away over the summer. Retired jockey Chris McCarron was aboard five winners over his illustrious career and Mike Smith trails with four winners so far in his Hall of Fame career.
Explora. Benoit Photo.
This year six will head postward in hopes of earning a spot in the gate for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) since the race is a designated Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win & You’re In” event.
Explora is the 4-5 favorite off her bumpy second-place finish to stablemate Bottle of Rouge as the 3-5 favorite in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) last out. She showed a lot of courage down the lane to try to keep the winner at bay but could not last and reluctantly gave way in the last few jumps. She’s surely more fit now and had a bullet work last week. No doubt she’ll be sent right from the break to control the pace, and it won’t take much more than a clean trip for this talented daughter of Blame to emerge the winner.
Sorrento Stakes (G3) winner Himika (3-1) was a disappointing fourth in the Del Mar Debutante last out, but in her defense, she did get a bad break and had some trouble. Back now with that experience under her belt, this $900,000 Baffert-trained daughter of Curlin boasts a pair of sizzling works for this race signaling she’s more than ready.
La Ville Lumiere (12-1) is back on the dirt after a flat fifth in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf last out. She broke her maiden sprinting on the lawn over the summer, but her second-place finish in her debut was impressive enough to suggest she might have a bright dirt future. Unfortunately, it’s hard to pick her on top in this field but maybe she can be included in the exotics.
La Wally (4-1) was a nice third in the Del Mar Debutante last out and was closing well from farther back early. Extra distance will help this Constitution filly, and she may be a good price at the windows come post time.
Heaven’s Bolt (5-1) looked good breaking her maiden at first asking at Del Mar a month ago, overcoming a wide trip to get to the wire in front while holding off a late charge from rival Banzai Betty, who is also in this field at 10-1. It was a good effort, but overall, her figures seem to be a notch below the top choices here.
Banzai Betty was so close in her debut, finishing a neck behind Heaven’s Bolt in that spicy Del Mar maiden event. The daughter of Upstart clearly ran out of room and another few jumps would have made her the winner, so the extra distance here only helps her. She’s a top candidate for not only a larger share of the purse, but with her running style behind a hot pace she’s a strong candidate to break her maiden in a grade 1.
The field for the $200,000 Oak Leaf Stakes (G1), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:
1 Banzai Betty (Umberto Rispoli, George Papapadromou), 10-1 2 La Ville Lumiere (Kazushi Kimura, Michael McCarthy), 12-1 3 La Wally (Antonio Fresu, Mark Glatt), 4-1 4 Himika (Mike Smith, Bob Baffert), 3-1 5 Heaven’s Bolt (Hector Barrios, Richard Baltas), 5-1 6 Explora (Juan Hernandez, Bob Baffert), 4-5
Rodeo Drive Odds; Field Includes Top Locals, Talented Shippers
Though it was inaugurated in 1977 as the Yellow Ribbon Stakes, it’s only been since champion Estrapade won the race for the connections of Charlie Whittingham, Allen Paulson and Bill Shoemaker in 1985 that the event rose to prominence.
Some really good turf distaffers have returned the winner of the Yellow Ribbon/Rodeo Drive Stakes (G2), including Brown Bess, Kostroma, Possibly Perfect, Ryafan, Fiji, Spanish Fern, Golden Apples, Megahertz, Wait a While (twice), Nashoba’s Key, Marketing Mix, Avenge (twice), Vasilika and Going to Vegas (twice).
This year the 1 ¼-mile turf test is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win & You’re In” event for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1). Eight will head postward in the race, which has been carded as the day’s eighth with a post time of 4:38 p.m. PT.
East Coast-based Mike Maker brings in former claimer Amber Cascade (5-2) for her third start in his care. She had previously spent her entire career on the dirt and her switch to the turf seems to have made all the difference as she now has two stakes placings on the lawn, including the Flower Bowl Stakes (G2) last out. It was the Free Drop Billy mare’s best career effort and if she repeats it here, she looks like the winner. Local leading rider Juan Hernandez will be aboard.
Alpha Belle. Benoit Photo.
Don Alberto’s Alpha Belle (4-1), a daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify, joined trainer John Sadler’s stable a year ago and has had an up and down career since. She is coming off a win in the CTT and TOC Stakes at 1 3/8 miles over Del Mar’s turf six weeks ago. And while her last win before that dates back 20 months, she has picked up some decent graded stakes placings, including the Beholder Mile (G1) in the spring.
She likes to be on or near the lead, it seems, for her best trip so if jockey Hector Barrios can break fast and get to the front, she may be hard to run down.
Long Ago (3-1) is another former claimer who clearly prefers the turf. The British-bred mare was sixth in the Flower Bowl last out with no excuses, her connections – including former local conditioner Bill Morey -- confident the change of scenery to the California seaside will make the difference. She is another who will be forwardly placed early but doesn’t need the lead and is certainly more than capable of handling the distance.
Hang the Moon (8-1) won this race last year but hasn’t won since and was last in the Breeders’ Cup a year ago. This will be her third start off the layoff so she should be fit enough but it’s easy to wonder if maybe the Uncle Mo mare has lost a step.
Mission of Joy (6-1) is consistent in graded stakes company but doesn’t win often. This is only her third start for trainer Phil D’Amato in California after being transferred to his care this summer. Her best gives her a shot at a bigger piece of the pie.
Starry Heavens (10-1) is one of three for D’Amato and while clearly talented, this Irish import has yet to win in four starts in this country. She’s come close with a pair of seconds and a pair of thirds in black-type company, but will it be enough to be a factor here?
Watchtower (12-1) is another who started her career East and came West. She has been running consistently in graded stakes but hasn’t been too consistent in picking up too many checks and she hasn’t won a race or even been close in over a year. She’s probably a bit overmatched here.
Speed Shopper (15-1) returns to California after spending all of 2025 in the East with trainer Will Walden. She’s still eligible for her first allowance condition after breaking her maiden two back. She’s talented, but is she talented enough to beat the top choices here? That’s the big question about this Quality Road filly.
The picks: 1 Amber Cascade 2 Alpha Belle 3 Long Ago
The field for the $200,000 Rodeo Drive Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:
1 Watchtower (Mirco Dimuro, Richard Baltas), 12-1 2 Starry Heavens (Antonio Fresu, Phil D’Amato), 10-1 3 Speed Shopper (Kazushi Kimura, William Walden), 15-1 4 Long Ago (Mike Smith, William Morey), 3-1 5 Mission of Joy (Umberto Rispoli, Phil D’Amato), 6-1 6 Hang the Moon (Armando Ayuso, Phil D’Amato), 8-1 7 Amber Cascade (Juan Hernandez, Mike Maker), 5-2 8 Alpha Bella (Hector Barrios, John Sadler), 4-1
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