As the winter chill settles over the horse racing world, the heat is just beginning to rise on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. For horse racing enthusiasts and seasoned handicappers alike, this is the most electrifying time of the year. We are witnessing the emergence of the next generation of superstars, each vying for a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs. The recent weekend of racing has significantly shifted the landscape, proving once again that longshots can disrupt the narrative at any moment. As we look at the current Kentucky Derby odds, it is clear that the path to Louisville is paved with both expectation and surprise.
In a sport defined by its unpredictability, the Remington Mile provided a moment that will be talked about for months. Express Kid, overlooked by the betting public, delivered a performance that transcended his price tag. Entering the gate at staggering 34-1 odds, the colt showcased a level of grit and stamina that few anticipated. By securing the victory, "Express Kid won the Remington Springboard Mile at 34-1 odds, putting him at no. 9 in the standings." This win wasn't just about the immediate payout for his backers; it was a statement of intent that he belongs among the elite three-year-olds of his crop.
Fair Grounds has always been a proving ground for Derby contenders, and the Gun Runner Stakes lived up to its reputation. Chip Honcho entered the fray with a growing reputation, but he needed a signature win to solidify his standing on the leaderboard. He did precisely that, grinding out a victory that demonstrated his tactical speed and ability to handle the distance. Following the official update, "Chip Honcho is at no. 12 after his score in the Gun Runner." His ascent provides a new angle for those looking at Kentucky Derby betting markets, as his style suggests he will only improve as the distances get longer.
While new names are climbing the ranks, the view from the top remains unchanged. Ted Noffey remains the benchmark for this generation, maintaining a firm grip on the lead. His resume is nothing short of historic for this stage of the season. "Ted Noffey, undefeated in four starts, remains at no. 1 with 40 points." When a horse enters his three-year-old season with this much momentum, the pressure is immense. However, his pedigree and past performances suggest he is a "freak" of nature capable of sustaining this brilliance all the way to the first Saturday in May.
Success in the Kentucky Derby is rarely an accident; it is the result of meticulous planning and elite training. Ted Noffey has the advantage of being in the barn of a Hall of Famer. "Trained by Todd Pletcher, three of his wins were in Grade 1s: the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Breeders' Futurity, and Hopeful Stakes." This trifecta of top-level victories is an incredible foundation. Pletcher knows exactly how to peak a horse for the spring, and having the current leaderboard topper allows him the luxury of picking his spots carefully. Many fans looking to bet on Kentucky Derby futures are already circling Ted Noffey as the "lock" of the season.
The leaderboard is a living document, influenced by every furlong run in designated prep races. With 10 points now credited to both Express Kid and Chip Honcho, the bubble for the Top 20 is already becoming competitive. These early points are often the difference between making the field and being an also-eligible. For bettors, tracking these points is essential for long-term value. When you evaluate the Kentucky Derby odds, you aren't just betting on speed; you are betting on the probability of a horse actually qualifying for the race.
| Position | Horse | Trainer | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ted Noffey | Todd A. Pletcher | 40 |
| 2 | Accelerize | Todd A. Pletcher | 20 |
| 3 | Litmus Test | Bob Baffert | 19 |
| 4 | Mr. A.P. | Vladimir Cerin | 15 |
| 5 | Universe | Kenneth G. McPeek | 13 |
| 6 | Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 13 |
| 7 | Spice Runner | Steven M. Asmussen | 11 |
| 8 | Paladin | Chad C. Brown | 10 |
| 9 | Further Ado | Brad H. Cox | 10 |
| 10 | Incredibolt | Riley Mott | 10 |
| 11 | Napoleon Solo | Chad Summers | 10 |
| 12 | Express Kid | Wade Rarick | 10 |
| 13 | Chip Honcho | Steven M. Asmussen | 10 |
| 14 | My World | Brad H. Cox | 10 |
| 15 | Strategic Risk | Mark E. Casse | 10 |
| 16 | Just A Touch | Brad H. Cox | 10 |
| 17 | Brant | Bob Baffert | 9 |
| 18 | Balboa | Brittany T. Russell | 9 |
| 19 | Very Connected | Kenneth G. McPeek | 6 |
| 20 | Cadet Corps | Kelly J. Breen | 6 |
Last Updated on 01/19/2026
After the excitement of the Remington Mile and the Gun Runner, the racing schedule offers a brief reprieve. "The road to the Kentucky Derby takes a break this weekend and resumes Jan. 3 with two preps." This hiatus is vital for trainers to assess their colts' physical condition and map out their next moves. For the fans, it is a time to review the tapes, study the speed figures, and refine their strategies for the upcoming stakes. The quiet before the storm is the perfect time to deepen your knowledge of the field.
The action returns with a bang in the Northeast. The Jerome Stakes, contested at a mile over the often-grueling Aqueduct surface, serves as a bridge from the juvenile season to the sophomore campaign. This race historically favors horses who can handle moisture and cold weather, traits that are often necessary on Derby day itself. "The Jerome going one mile at Aqueduct" is the first opportunity of 2026 for a new contender to burst onto the scene. Points awarded here can catapult a regional star into national conversations overnight.
While New York offers one path, Hot Springs, Arkansas, offers another. The Smarty Jones Stakes is the opening salvo of the highly lucrative Oaklawn Park series. "The Smarty Jones at 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn" is particularly significant because of the distance. Moving from one mile to 1 1/16 miles is the first real test of a young horse's endurance. "Both offer 10-5-3-2-1 points to the top five finishers," meaning even a minor placing can provide a crucial foundation for a horse's Derby dreams.
As January progresses, competition intensity increases significantly. We transition from the "discovery" phase to the "validation" phase. "The points pace picks up after that, as the next eight preps offer 20-10-6-4-2 points." This doubling of available points means that a single win can move a horse from the bottom of the rankings to a guaranteed spot in the starting gate. For those engaging in Kentucky Derby betting, this is the window where "value" begins to disappear as the public identifies the true Kentucky Derby contenders.
The Fair Grounds circuit remains one of the most productive paths to Churchill Downs. On January 17, the eyes of the racing world will return to New Orleans. "They begin with the Lecomte Stakes (G3) on Jan. 17," a race that has historically produced horses who thrive at the classic distances. The 20 points awarded to the winner here almost ensure a spot in the later 100-point preps, making the Lecomte a high-stakes chess match for trainers. It is a race where tactical speed is often put to the ultimate test on a long home stretch.
Mark your calendars, because the final Saturday of January is set to be a blockbuster. The distribution of talent will be spread across the country, offering insights into multiple regional divisions. "The Lecomte is followed by the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), Southwest Stakes (G3), and the Withers Stakes on Jan. 31." With three major races occurring on the same day, we will see a massive reshuffling of the leaderboard. This is a prime opportunity to identify Kentucky Derby odds that may be mispriced due to regional biases.
Gulfstream Park’s "Holy Bull" is often where the fastest horses in the country congregate. The speed-favoring surface in Florida demands a horse that can break cleanly and maintain a high cruising speed. Winning the Holy Bull requires a combination of raw talent and professional maturity. Many champions have used this race as a springboard to glory, and the 20 points on offer this year will undoubtedly attract a field full of Grade 1 talent. It is a vital stop for anyone looking to bet on Kentucky Derby futures.
Back at Oaklawn, the Southwest Stakes provides a different kind of challenge. Often run over a "heavy" or "sloppy" track, the Southwest is for the grinders. It rewards horses that don't mind getting dirt in their faces and who can sustain a long, sustained drive. The points earned here attest to a horse's physical durability. As we track the Kentucky Derby betting trends, pay close attention to the horses that exit the Southwest with their heads held high, as they often possess the "bottom" needed for the 1 1/4 mile Derby distance.
The Withers Stakes at Aqueduct is one of the oldest races in the country and remains a cornerstone of the New York path. Running at 1 1/8 miles so early in the year is a massive "ask" for a three-year-old. It effectively separates sprinters from true routers. A horse that wins the Withers is declaring themselves a distance specialist. For analysts, the Withers is the ultimate data point for stamina, and its 20-point reward is a significant incentive for trainers to test their colts' limits.
Understanding the points system is the key to success for the horseplayer. A horse like Express Kid, with his 10 points, is now in a position where he doesn't need to win his next race to stay relevant; he just needs to stay "in the money." This affects how he will be ridden and how his trainer will prepare him. When looking at Kentucky Derby odds, always cross-reference the price with the horse’s current leaderboard position. A "safe" horse with 40 points might be overvalued, while a 10-point horse with a huge upward trajectory could be the steal of the century.
As we analyze horses such as Ted Noffey, Express Kid, and Chip Honcho, pedigree is the silent driver of success. We are looking for sires who have "been there and done that." A son of Into Mischief or Curlin brings a level of expectation that a smaller-market sire does not. However, the 34-1 upset by Express Kid reminds us that talent can come from anywhere. Deep-diving into the "dosage" and sire stamina ratings is a crucial part of our analysis as we move closer to the spring.
Serious bettors don't just pick one horse in January; they build a portfolio. By spreading your Kentucky Derby betting across several different paths, the Florida path, the New York path, and the Fair Grounds path, you insulate yourself against the inevitable injuries and "off" days that plague the road to the Derby. Right now, Ted Noffey is the foundation, but horses like Chip Honcho are the high-upside additions that could make your season.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is still months away, but the foundation is being laid right now. Every point earned, every upset delivered, and every workout recorded is a piece of the puzzle. Whether you are following the leaderboard for the pure love of the sport or looking for the best Kentucky Derby odds to maximize your return, this is the time to stay engaged. The Road to the Derby is long, winding, and full of surprises, and we wouldn't have it any other way. Keep your eyes on the standings, your mind on the data, and your heart on the track.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
