Gulfstream Park comes to mind when most bettors and fans think of winter racing in Florida.
The Hallandale Beach track attracts many of the top horses, trainers, and jockeys from the East Coast for a stakes-laden Championship Meet that sets the stage for the year ahead.
However, there is a Florida alternative on the west coast of the state: Tampa Bay Downs.
While Tampa Bay Downs lacks the prestige of Gulfstream, the cozy track offers several advantages. It is friendlier and more customer-oriented. It has a fresh turf course and a relaxed atmosphere.
In short, it’s more fun.
Tampa Bay, celebrating its 100th season, kicked off the annual November-to-early-May meet this week.
Let’s look at some of the angles for horseplayers looking for action at Florida’s “other track.”
For starters, consider the jockeys.
Rising star Samuel Marin leads the pack in his bid for a second straight Tampa Bay Downs title.
Step by step, the 24-year-old is on a trajectory for bigger and better things. He was second to Paco Lopez this summer at Monmouth Park and rode briefly at Aqueduct this fall.
Marin seriously considered wintering in New York before opting for another winter in the Florida sunshine.
“New York is the place everyone wants to be, and a lot of New York trainers helped me out at Monmouth. So, for a little while, I thought I would do it," Marin said.
After consulting with agent Mike Moran, a former jockey, Marin decided to head back to Tampa.
“We did great here last year and I had a lot of fun,” Marin said.
That’s great, but how can the horseplayers join in?
Let’s look at the numbers for clues.
Marin will ride a lot of favorites. Nothing surprising there. Leading riders at every track often wind up on the best horses.
The key to success: don’t chase the chalk. Marin had 116 wins from 558 mounts during the previous meet. He won 21% of his rides, meaning 79% of the time his horse lost.
Those numbers work against betting short-priced favorites. Patience is the key. Avoid Marin on the heavy chalk. Pay attention when you can catch him at 4-1 or higher.
For exotic players, Marin is always a factor. His mounts hit the board at a 57% clip last meet, so ignore him at your peril on exacta and trifecta tickets.
Marin should get off to a fast start. Samy Camacho, a five-time Tampa Bay Downs champion and runner-up to Marin the last meet with 105 wins, starts the new season serving a suspension until Dec. 10. That leaves the door wide open for Marin to fire up an early lead in the standings.
Who else should players note?
Antonio Gallardo quietly had an excellent winter last time, bagging 43 winners at a 16% clip.
Daniel Centeno knows how to ride this track, having won six riding titles here. The colony also includes a Kentucky Derby (G1) winner: Sonny Leon (Rich Strike, 2022).
Drilling a little deeper, let's look at some of the important categories, starting with turf races. Here’s where Camacho shines. He was the top grass rider last meet with 39 wins on the lawn to 35 for Marin.
It’s impressive to note Camacho had 47 fewer grass mounts than Marin, meaning he won at a 25% clip. That’s a fancy strike rate at any meet.
Camacho’s success rate was even more impressive aboard first-time runners. He was 10-for-34 last meet (29%). Keep that in mind when studying maiden races. Marin was second with seven wins among first-timers.
On the trainer side, Kathy O’Connell, a four-time leader here, is back to defend her title. A career winner of over 2,500 races, O’Connell is one of the most successful female trainers in the history of the sport.
O’Connell seemingly has a horse for every category in the condition book. That’s how you win titles. She had 251 starts last meet, almost 100 more than Juan Arriagada, who was second in the standings.
“We have a bunch of useful horses, and we’ll run them where they belong,” O’Connell said. “It’s like playing poker – you have to know how to play the cards and when to play them.”
While O’Connell will be prominent and usually well bet, there are opportunities for lower-profile barns like Juan Carlos Avila (21% winners last meet) and Reynaldo Yanez (23%) to produce some nice-priced winners.
When it comes to the turf, Chad Brown is king at Tampa. Shipping in horses from his base in South Florida, Brown was the leading grass trainer last meet with 21 wins from only 68 starts, a sensational 31% success rate.
Here's a bit of advice … you won’t make money chasing Brown turf horses at Tampa Bay Downs. They usually get crushed in the wagering.
Dig a little deeper, and you see that Arriagada was 7-for-25 on the grass (28%) that was comparable to Brown's but from a much smaller sample.
And look out for Dennis Ward, who won five turf races from only 11 starters.
They’re off and running once again at Tampa Bay Downs. Good luck and good wagering at Florida’s other racetrack!
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
