Robert J. Frankel Stakes: Betting, Analysis, Picks

The Robert J. Frankel Stakes (G3), set to be contested on New Year’s Eve at Santa Anita Park, traces its origins to its inauguration as the San Gorgonio Handicap in 1968, when it was initially run as a sprint over approximately 6 1/2 furlongs on the downhill turf course.

A field of seven is entered for Wednesday’s race, now run at 1 1/8 miles, with Public Assembly for trainer Phil D’Amato the morning-line 8-5 favorite.

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Frankel Stakes history

A horse named Tumble Wind, trained by the legend Charlie Whittingham, won that 1968 race. It lasted as a downhill sprint for exactly one running and shifted in 1969 to a 1 1/8-mile turf feature under the name San Gorgonio Claiming Stakes then was not held in 1970.

By 1976, it reverted to the San Gorgonio Handicap and became a handicap exclusively for fillies and mares, highlighted that year by the Chilean-bred Tizna’s narrow win while carrying a record 132 pounds as the favorite, a number that still stands as the highest impost carried by a female in Santa Anita history.

Scheduling quirks led to the race being run twice in 1977 (January and December) and skipped entirely in 1978, before it stabilized as an annual January fixture until moving to late December in recent decades.

The San Gorgonio earned Grade 3 classification in 1983 and was elevated to Grade 2 in 1985, though it has occasionally been taken off the turf due to weather, including a dirt running in 2016 that resulted in a temporary loss of graded status.

In 2010, following the passing of Hall of Fame trainer Robert J. (Bobby) Frankel, who saddled a record eight winners of the race – 1973, Extra Hand; 1996, Wandesta; 1997, Sixieme Sens; 1999, See You Soon; 2001, Uncharted Haven); 2003, Tates Creek; 2004, Megahertz; and 2007, Citronnade – Santa Anita renamed it the Robert J. Frankel Stakes to honor his legacy. It was downgraded to a Grade 3 in 2012 and currently carries a $100,000 purse.

Over its history, the race has featured numerous standout performers, including Paseana in 1992, the Argentine-bred Eclipse Award-winning older female who triumphed under trainer Ron McAnally; Wait a While in 2008, who achieved the event’s highest Equibase Speed Figure of 121 under Todd Pletcher; and Tout Charmant in 2002, a sentimental favorite ridden by Chris McCarron in one of his final major wins in his Hall of Fame career.

Other notable winners include Track Robbery (1982), the older female champion that year; Queens Court Queen (1995), who upset the field off the turf; and more recent stars like Mucho Unusual (2020), Queen Goddess (2022), Angel Nadeshiko (2023) and Mrs. Astor (2024), who dug in for a determined nose victory under Frankie Dettori for trainer Jonathan Thomas, a year ago.

Robert J. Frankel Stakes odds analysis

The race shapes up as an intriguing contest with a compact field of seven, topped by Public Assembly.

D’Amato will name a rider to replace the sidelined Antonio Fresu, who is out indefinitely with a broken toe, but this More Than Ready mare is still a deserving favorite. She boasts a strong runner-up finish at two furlongs farther in her last outing, the Red Carpet Stakes (G3) at Del Mar.

Drawing the rail isn’t terrible coming out the turf chute at Santa Anita, though she’ll need to overcome traffic when potentially getting buried along the inside if she makes it to her preferred spot stalking the pace. She won the Royal Heroine Stakes (G3) last spring at a furlong shorter here, so she definitely has an affinity for the course. She has some strong speed and late pace figures, which can only help her chances, and she has a string of recent near-misses, which suggest she’s peaking into top form.

Paradise Lake (2-1), trained by Peter Eurton with jockey Juan Hernandez aboard, returns off a third in the Red Carpet. The Uncle Mo filly (a filly for one more day) owns three turf wins at Santa Anita, including at this distance in allowance company, and she could pose the primary challenge if she replicates her consistent closing kick on what promises to be firm ground. This race is definitely a step up in class, but she’s earned her shot.

As Catch Can (4-1), with Umberto Rispoli aboard for Jonathan Thomas from post 4, returns off a three-day layoff after an uninvolved ninth-place finish in the American Oaks (G1), won by stablemate Ambaya, on opening day. Her top form will make her a live contender. If she shows up, she could benefit significantly from her mid-pack style in a race lacking overwhelming early speed. She owns an impressive rallying win in the Old Dominion Oaks at Colonial Downs in September and has strong prior efforts, including a second in the Honeymoon Stakes (G3) over this course. She is a big question in this quick turnaround.

Watchtower (5-1), trained by Richard Baltas with Mirco Demuro up from post 5, brings in a win over the course at this distance, suggesting she could rebound if the turf plays to her stalking tendencies. She was a DNF in the Rodeo Drive Stakes back in October, but the saddle slipped and forced her to be pulled up. Though she’ll have to improve off her dull sixth in the Swingtime Stakes in her most recent start, she is capable of being part of the exotics if not pulling an upset.

The D’Amato barn doubles up with Sun Of Hil (10-1), piloted by Kazushi Kimura from post 2. Her form and Brazilian breeding hint at untapped potential on U.S. turf, but she hasn’t shown it yet in 11 North American starts so she’ll need improvement to factor prominently.

Longshot Mahina (12-1) with Joel Rosario for Paddy Gallagher from the outside post 7, hasn’t won in 14 months, but counters with three wins over the course over her career, which helps in offering value for exotic plays if she finds her best closing gear late.

The outsider Ima Joker (30-1) for trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Emisael Jaramillo, breaks from post 3 and owns two wins on the Santa Anita turf (one was on the downhill), but her speed figures overall suggest she might struggle against this caliber unless the favorites falter.

Overall, the race appears to hinge on pace dynamics, with Public Assembly and Paradise Lake likely dueling for favoritism in a field where course specialists hold a clear edge.

The picks: 1 Public Assembly 2 Paradise Lake 3 As Catch Can

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The field for the $100,000 Robert J. Frankel Stakes (G3), with jockey, trainer, and odds:

  • 1 Public Assembly (TBD, Phil D’Amato), 8-5
  • 2 Sun Of Hill (Kazushi Kimura, Phil D’Amato), 10-1
  • 3 Ima Joker (Emisael Jaramillo, Doug O’Neill), 30-1
  • 4 As Catch Can (Umberto Rispoli, Jonathan Thomas), 4-1
  • 5 Watchtower (Mirco Dimuro, Richard Baltas), 5-1
  • 6 Paradise Lake (Juan Hernandez, Peter Eurton), 2-1
  • 7 Mahina (Joel Rosario, Paddy Gallagher), 12-1

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