The 2026 Southwest Stakes serves as a pivotal turning point for every three-year-old with dreams of wearing the roses in Louisville. As a Grade 3 fixture with a $1 million purse, this race does more than just offer a massive payday; it distributes 42 critical qualifying points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Fans across the nation eagerly await the gates opening at Oaklawn Park, especially after winter weather forced a rare rescheduling of this iconic event. This year, the stakes feel higher than ever as a deep field of fourteen contenders prepares to battle over the one-and-one-sixteenth-mile distance. You can secure the best Southwest Stakes odds by following the movement of the morning line as the race approaches.
Mark your calendars for Friday, February 6, 2026. While the race originally occupied a Saturday slot, track officials moved the entire card to Friday to ensure the safety of the horses following a significant winter storm. Oaklawn Park remains the center of the horse racing universe this weekend, and you can catch every second of the action live. FOX Sports will broadcast the event through its "America’s Day at the Races" program, providing expert commentary and paddock views. If you prefer digital platforms, BUSR Experience offers comprehensive streaming coverage for those looking to engage in Southwest Stakes betting from their mobile devices. The projected post time for the feature race sits at approximately 4:45 PM CT, making it the centerpiece of an eleven-race card.
Mother Nature played a significant role in the lead-up to this year's event. Winter Storm Fern blanketed Hot Springs in snow and sub-freezing temperatures throughout late January, forcing the one-week delay. However, the forecast for Friday, February 6, looks promising for fans and athletes alike. Meteorologists predict a high of 60 degrees Fahrenheit with sunny skies, providing a crisp but comfortable afternoon at the track. Despite the recent thaw, the Oaklawn surface often retains moisture, potentially favoring "mudders" or horses with high-cruising speed who can skip over a "good" or "fast" surface that might still feel a bit heavy. Check the final track variant before you bet on Southwest Stakes runners, as the interior rail often plays faster during the afternoon thaw.
The Southwest Stakes isn't the only highlight of this blockbuster weekend. Due to the rescheduling, Oaklawn Park hosts a "Classic Meet" kickoff that runs from Thursday through Sunday. Saturday features the Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes, which serves as the season debut for the reigning Eclipse Award-winning filly, Nitrogen. This density of talent creates a paradise for horseplayers. The Friday card alone features several high-level allowance races and competitive maiden special weights that provide clues for future stakes winners. Analysts suggest that the track might play slightly toward speed during the early races, but the long stretch run at Oaklawn always gives closers a fair chance in the route distances.
The history of this race reads like a "Who's Who" of American Thoroughbred racing. Since its inception, the Southwest has produced legendary champions like Smarty Jones, who swept the Oaklawn series before winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes in 2024. More recently, we saw Mystik Dan utilize a win here to propel himself to a historic nose-victory in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. In 2025, Speed King shocked the crowd with a 15-1 upset, proving that the Southwest Stakes odds often hide massive value for the observant bettor. Other notable winners include Essential Quality and Arabian Knight, both of whom used this race as a launchpad for Grade 1 success later in their sophomore campaigns.
| Year | Winner | Jockey | Trainer | Owner | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Speed King | Rafael Bejarano | Ron Moquett | Triton Thoroughbreds LLC, Naber Racing LLC, Hennigan, Bryan, Rapier, Doug and Micetic, Ron | 1:45.86 |
| 2024 | Mystik Dan | Emmanuel Esquivel | Juan Sanchez | J. Patrick Lee Racing | 1:45.04 |
| 2023 | Arabian Knight | John R. Velazquez | Bob Baffert | Zedan Racing Stables. | 1:43.50 |
| 2022 | Newgrange | John R. Velazquez | Bob Baffert | SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm | 1:45.83 |
| 2021 | Essential Quality | Luis Saez | Brad H. Cox | Godolphin Racing | 1:45.48 |
| 2020 | Silver Prospector | Ricardo Santana Jr. | Steven M. Asmussen | Ed & Susie Orr | 1:43.01 |
Before we dive into the individual profiles, it is essential to understand the tactical complexity of this fourteen-horse field. Oaklawn Park’s one-and-one-sixteenth-mile configuration starts and finishes at the secondary finish line, meaning the run to the first turn is relatively short. This places a massive premium on early position and gate speed. We see a distinct split this year between the high-octane speed coming out of California and the seasoned "grinders" who have been training locally over the deep Arkansas dirt. Determining which horses can handle the transition from a one-turn sprint to a two-turn route is the key to unlocking the value in the exotic pools. Pay close attention to the paddock appearance and warm-up gallops, as the recent weather shifts may affect the temperament of these young Thoroughbreds.
Reclamation enters the fray as a longshot with a 30-1 morning line. Trainer Christopher Davis sends this son of Caracaro into the deep end following a sharp maiden victory on January 3. Jockey Ramon Vazquez takes the reins, hoping to replicate the horse's 109 speed figure.
While the talent is evident, Reclamation has never run beyond six furlongs. Jumping from a sprint to a two-turn graded stakes represents a massive challenge for any young horse. He likely attempts to use his natural speed to stay near the lead, but the final furlong will test his stamina to the limit.
D'code represents the "X-factor" of the 2026 field. With 3-1 odds, this Speightstown colt destroyed his competition in a December 14 maiden race at Oaklawn. Trainer H. Ray Ashford Jr. secured the services of superstar jockey Luis Saez, a move that signals extreme confidence.
D'code posted a massive 131 speed figure in his last start, the highest in the field. However, his pedigree leans heavily toward sprinting. If Saez can ration his speed over the mile and a sixteenth, D'code could be gone at the top of the stretch. Many experts consider him a primary target for Southwest Stakes betting.
Bob Baffert rarely ships to Oaklawn without a live chance, and Buetane fits that description perfectly. Carrying 4-1 odds, this Tiz the Law colt comes off a game second-place finish in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes. Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario flies in to ride, providing a significant boost to the horse's prospects.
Buetane possesses the tactical versatility to sit just off the lead or rally from mid-pack. Baffert has won this race a record six times, and Buetane appears to be his strongest hand in 2026. He is a logical choice for those looking to bet on Southwest Stakes favorites.
Brad Cox and Flavien Prat team up with Rancho Santa Fe, who currently sits at 15-1. This son of Tapit disappointed in the Smarty Jones Stakes, finishing a lackluster fifth. However, Cox is known for making winning adjustments between starts. Prat is arguably the best tactical rider in North America, and his presence suggests the barn expects a total reversal of form.
Rancho Santa Fe has the distance pedigree to thrive at ten furlongs eventually, so the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Southwest should suit him better than his previous efforts.
Officials have confirmed that Litmus Test is a late scratch from the 2026 Southwest Stakes. The Bob Baffert trainee was the 5-2 morning-line favorite and the highest-rated horse in the field with a 7.69. His absence completely reshapes the Southwest Stakes odds, as the bulk of the win-pool money will now migrate toward D'code and Buetane. Without the reigning Los Alamitos Futurity winner in the gate, the race becomes much more wide-open, providing a massive opportunity for the mid-tier longshots to steal a victory and the valuable Derby points.
Dallas Stewart sends out Circle Tap at 30-1. While he won his last start at Oaklawn, it took him five tries to find the winner's circle. Ricardo Santana Jr. knows the Oaklawn surface better than anyone, which provides a slight "home-field" advantage. Circle Tap showed improvement when switching to two turns, but his speed figures remain significantly lower than the top-tier contenders. He will need a total meltdown of the front-runners to pass enough horses in the stretch to hit the board.
Liberty National offers intriguing value at 10-1. Trained by Kenneth McPeek and ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr., this Maxfield colt finished a strong second in the Gun Runner Stakes. He shows a consistent upward trajectory in his speed figures and clearly enjoys the distance. McPeek won the Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan just two years ago, using a similar path. If the pace is hot, Liberty National will be the one flying late. He is a "must-use" in any Southwest Stakes betting exotic wagers like the Trifecta or Superfecta.
Another Dallas Stewart trainee, Spirit Of Royal, enters at 30-1. Francisco Arrieta takes the mount on this Global Campaign colt. He broke his maiden on January 2 at Oaklawn, but the 94 speed figure he earned doesn't inspire much confidence against this level of competition. He lacks the "early gears" to compete with D'code and doesn't seem to have the "late kick" of the Casse or McPeek runners. He faces an uphill battle in this Grade 3 spot.
Mark Casse holds a strong hand with Strategic Risk, the 9-2 second choice. Javier Castellano flies in for the mount, which is always a signal of intent. Strategic Risk won the Smarty Jones Stakes earlier this year, showing great determination to hold off his stablemate. He handles the Oaklawn surface exceptionally well and possesses the high cruising speed required to win at this distance. Many professional handicappers will bet on Southwest Stakes glory via this Florida-bred son of Noble Bird.
Bricklin (20-1) comes off a front-running allowance win on January 3 for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. Jose Torres takes the mount on this Nyquist colt. While his last win was visually impressive, he benefited from an easy lead that he almost certainly won't get today. With D'code and Reclamation in the race, Bricklin likely finds himself in a speed duel that could compromise his chances in the final quarter-mile. He needs to show he can rate behind horses to have a chance at an upset.
Silent Tactic (20-1) finished second to Strategic Risk in the Smarty Jones and looks like a prime candidate for a "reverse" result. Mark Casse also trains this son of Tacitus, and Cristian Torres retains the mount. Silent Tactic made a huge move in the stretch last time and only missed by a neck. With a faster projected pace today, his closing style should be even more effective. He is my "Live Longshot" for the afternoon and a great addition to your Southwest Stakes betting strategy.
Paul McEntee brings Baytown Dreamer at 30-1 with Orlando Bocachica riding. This Mendelssohn colt finished third in the Smarty Jones at massive odds. While he earned some Derby points that day, he never really threatened the top two. He seems to be a horse that picks up the pieces when others tire, but he lacks the brilliance needed to win a race of this magnitude. He remains a deep sleeper for the bottom of Superfecta tickets.
Steve Asmussen, the all-time winningest trainer, sends out Soldier N Diplomat at 12-1. Jose Ortiz takes the mount, creating a "dream team" pairing. This son of Army Mule finished third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club and has been training forwardly. The wide post position (13) is a concern, as he might get hung out three-wide on the first turn. However, Asmussen knows how to win at Oaklawn better than anyone in history, and you can never count him out when he targets a million-dollar race.
Rounding out the field is Sleepingonfreedom at 30-1 for Ken McPeek. Emmanuel Esquivel takes the ride from the dreaded 14-hole. This son of Independence Hall finished fourth in the Smarty Jones, but drew the worst possible starting spot for this race. He will need to work extremely hard just to get into a decent position before the first turn. Unless he takes a massive leap in talent, the outside post likely seals his fate as a non-factor.
The 2026 Southwest Stakes presents a classic confrontation between California speed and local stamina. D'code is the fastest horse on paper, but the jump to two turns is the ultimate equalizer. I expect D'code and Reclamation to set a blistering pace, which sets the table for the stalkers and closers. Buetane (3) and Strategic Risk (9) should sit the "trip of the race" just behind the leaders. However, leaning toward Silent Tactic (11) to pull the upset at 20-1. His performance in the Smarty Jones suggested he wants every bit of this distance, and the extra pace helps his cause. For those looking to bet on the Southwest Stakes, a box exacta with 3-9-11 offers excellent coverage.
The 2026 Southwest Stakes promises to be a legendary chapter in Oaklawn Park history, blending a million-dollar purse with the desperation of the Kentucky Derby trail. Whether you are backing the Baffert brilliance or searching for a Casse-trained longshot, the excitement of the "Fifth Season" in Hot Springs is truly unmatched. Prepare your bankroll, study the final odds, and get ready to witness the next great superstar emerge from the Arkansas dirt.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
