Early birds catch more than just the worm in horse racing; they catch life-changing prices. When you dive into Kentucky Derby futures, you are not just betting on a horse; you are investing in a dream before the public inflation hits. Historical data shows that the biggest windfalls come from identifying talent in December and January, months before casual fans even look at a racing program. If you wait until the first Saturday in May, you accept crumbs. If you act now, you secure the lion's share of the value. Professional bettors ignore the morning line on Derby day and focus entirely on the building momentum within the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.
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The current crop of 2026 three-year-olds shows immense depth, led by the formidable Ted Noffey. However, the true "wiseguy" money looks past the obvious favorites. While Ted Noffey sits at relatively short Kentucky Derby Odds after his Breeders' Futurity and Breeders' Cup Juvenile exploits, sharp analysts are scouring the results of the Kentucky Derby prep races for horses that finished with a flourish.
| Position | Horse | Trainer | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ted Noffey | Todd A. Pletcher | 40 |
| 2 | Litmus Test | Bob Baffert | 19 |
| 3 | Mr. A.P. | Vladimir Cerin | 15 |
| 4 | Universe | Kenneth G. McPeek | 13 |
| 5 | Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 13 |
| 6 | Spice Runner | Steven M. Asmussen | 11 |
| 7 | Paladin | Chad C. Brown | 10 |
| 8 | Further Ado | Brad H. Cox | 10 |
| 9 | Incredibolt | Riley Mott | 10 |
| 10 | Napoleon Solo | Chad Summers | 10 |
| 11 | Brant | Bob Baffert | 9 |
| 12 | Renegade | Todd A. Pletcher | 5 |
| 13 | Comport | Eddie Kenneally | 5 |
| 14 | Desert Gate | Bob Baffert | 5 |
| 15 | Blackout Time | Kenneth G. McPeek | 5 |
| 16 | Talkin | Danny Gargan | 5 |
| 17 | Blacksmith | Bob Baffert | 5 |
| 18 | Very Connected | Kenneth G. McPeek | 5 |
| 19 | Balboa | Brittany T. Russell | 4 |
| 20 | Soldier N Diplomat | Steven M. Asmussen | 3 |
Last Updated on 12/19/2025
We see a pattern in which horses like Litmus Test and Mr. A.P. demonstrate tactical versatility that mirrors that of past longshot winners. You must look for the "hidden" speed figures, those 90+ Beyers earned on deep, tiring tracks like Aqueduct or Churchill Downs, to find the next Mine That Bird or Rich Strike.
Distance remains the great equalizer at Churchill Downs. To successfully bet on Kentucky Derby winners, you must prioritize stamina-heavy bloodlines. We currently observe a fascinating trend where sons of Into Mischief, such as Ted Noffey, continue to dominate early, but the "closer" types by sires like Curlin and Gun Runner are the ones lurking at 50-1 or higher. Sires like Curlin produce late-developing runners that thrive when the distance stretches to 1 1/4 miles. If you spot a longshot from these lines finishing second or third in a one-mile prep, you have found a prime candidate for your next Kentucky Derby betting slip.
Raw speed matters, but the trajectory of that speed matters more. We call this the "Ascending Figure Pattern." When you evaluate Kentucky Derby contenders, ignore the horse that peaked with a 105 Beyer in October and has since regressed. Instead, hunt for the horse moving from an 82 to an 88 to a 94. This steady climb suggests a horse reaching physical maturity precisely when the Triple Crown trail heats up. Current data highlights several mid-tier runners in the Brad Cox and Todd Pletcher barns that fit this mold perfectly. These are the horses that will cause the Kentucky Derby Odds to plummet in April, meaning your early future ticket becomes a massive asset.
High-profile trainers like Bob Baffert and Steve Asmussen often enter multiple runners in the early Kentucky Derby prep races. The betting public gravitates toward the "A-team" runner, usually leaving the "B-team" stablemate at massive overlay prices. History tells us that these second-stringers frequently improve past their more hyped counterparts. For instance, Baffert’s Litmus Test recently validated this theory by winning the Los Alamitos Futurity, proving that his "B" runners are often better than everyone else's "A" runners. Diversifying your Kentucky Derby betting portfolio to include these overlooked stablemates is a proven path to profitability.
Not all prep races are created equal. A 95 speed rating in Southern California often looks different than a 95 earned in the winter slush of New York. Savvy bettors recognize that New York-based runners, like those competing in the Remsen Stakes or Jerome Stakes, develop a level of "bottom" or hardiness that serves them well in the 20-horse cavalry charge at Churchill Downs. When you look at the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, don't be fooled by the flashy times from Gulfstream Park's "speed highway." Instead, look for the grinders who handled adversity and kickback on the deeper tracks. These are the blue-collar longshots that fill the exacta at 80-1.
The points system changed the game, but it also created a roadmap for bettors. You should monitor the Kentucky Derby leaderboard not just to see who is on top, but to see who needs points. Horses sitting just outside the top 20 often run "big" in their final preps out of necessity. This desperation creates betting value. When a trainer ships a horse halfway across the country for a 20-point race, they are sending a signal of intent. If you ignore these signals, you miss the boat on the most lucrative Kentucky Derby betting opportunities of the season.
The most dangerous thing for a bettor is a "talking horse." Every year, a maiden winner earns a massive figure and becomes the "buzz" horse of the winter. Their Kentucky Derby Odds drop to 10-1 or 12-1 in the early pools, which is a disastrous price for a horse that hasn't faced winners. Your goal is to find the "quiet" horse, the one that won a gritty allowance race by a neck while the camera was focused elsewhere. These "subway" horses provide the 40-1 and 60-1 cushions you need to ensure a profitable season. Remember, the goal is to find the winner, not the most popular loser.
As we move closer to the spring, mental maturity becomes as crucial as lung capacity. Analysis of recent Kentucky Derby prep races shows that horses who struggle with the starting gate or become fractious in the paddock rarely handle the 150,000-person roar at Churchill Downs. We look for "professional" juveniles—horses that settle behind runners, take dirt in their faces without flinching, and explode when asked. Identifying these traits in December allows you to lock in superior value before the "professionalism" of the horse becomes common knowledge among the betting public.
The road to the 152nd Run for the Roses is paved with missed opportunities and "what-ifs." You have the data, you understand the patterns of the ascending speed figures, and you know which trainers are hiding their best weapons. Don't let another year go by where you watch a 50-1 longshot cross the finish line while you hold a losing ticket on the 2-1 favorite. The window for elite value is open right now.
The Kentucky Derby Odds will never be this high again. Every day you wait is a day the potential payout shrinks. Take the leap, apply these professional insights, and position yourself for the ultimate payday. Sign up today, deposit your bankroll, and place your Kentucky Derby futures wagers before the rest of the world catches on. This is your year to beat the closing line and master the greatest game on turf.
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The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
