2026 Kentucky Derby: An Early Look at Promising Contenders

As most horseplayers know, the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) usually comes away with an Eclipse Award as the 2-year-old male champion and earns the role as the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

It’s played out that way for 33 of the first 41 Breeders’ Cup Juveniles, and the victory by Ted Noffey in Juvenile No. 42 last Friday (Oct. 31) will make it 34 early next year when the Eclipse Award winners are announced. Going on to win the Derby, though, is a different story.

Ted Noffey came through with an impressive victory over Brant to complete a 4-for-4 season that included three Grade 1 stakes at three different tracks for more than $1.6 million in earnings.

A Lock for the Eclipse? Yes. How about the Derby?

First, the 2026 Kentucky Derby is six months away, and it only takes one awkward step, a slight fever, a minor injury, or any other pause in training that would likely sidetrack any contender on the road to Churchill Downs for the first Saturday in May. 

Juvenile-Derby is rare

The Juvenile-Derby double is rare -- Street Sense came through in the 2007 Derby and ended the “Juvenile Jinx,” and Nyquist prevailed in 2016. That’s it – two of 41 Juvenile-Derby winners.

Not to say other runners in the Juvenile haven’t gone on to win the Derby. In an eight-year span, from 1985 to 2003, Spend a Buck (1985), Alysheba (1987), and Sea Hero (1993) were all beaten in the Juvenile the previous year but went on to win the Derby.

And to top it all off ... Midshipman won the Juvenile in 2008, and the last-place finisher was a gelding named Mine That Bird. Six months later, 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird pulled off his stunning Derby victory.

What does the Future Hold for Ted Noffey?

A son of top sire Into Mischief, trained and ridden by Hall of Famers, Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez, respectively, and owned by Spendthrift Farms, the colt is in capable hands.

After his Juvenile win at Del Mar, Ted Noffey was being shipped to Pletcher’s winter training headquarters at Palm Beach Downs. Pletcher, a two-time Derby winner, said the early plan is to point toward the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park on March 28, with a prep race before that (possibly the Fountain of Youth Stakes on Feb. 28).

“We will get him back to our winter base and go from there,’’ Pletcher said.

The road to the Derby has been underway since September, with six point-qualifying races in the books, including the Juvenile.

While there’s no way to predict what will unfold as the Derby trail picks up steam, here’s a look at some of the promising 2-year-olds:

Kentucky Derby Early Contenders

• Ted Noffey: Winner of three Grade 1 stakes, the Hopeful, the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
• Brant: Winner of the Del Mar Futurity (G1), third in the BC Juvenile, trained by six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert.
• Spice Runner: Iroquois Stakes (G3) winner trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, and a son of top sire Gun Runner.
• Mr. A. P.: A maiden winner who closed for second in the BC Juvenile, and a son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Trained by Vladimir Cerin.
• Intrepido: Won the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) and was fifth of six in the BC Juvenile for trainer Jeff Mullins.
• Blackout Time: Trained by 2024 Derby winner Kenny McPeek, the colt was a day scratch from the BC Juvenile. A maiden winner; ran second in the Breeders’ Futurity to Ted Noffey.
• Napoleon Solo: Won the Champagne Stakes (G1) following a career debut victory for trainer Chad Summers.
• Incredibolt: Winner of the Street Sense Stakes (G3) for trainer Riley Mott, the son of Hall of Famer Bill Mott. Dad’s Sovereignty won the Street Sense on his road to winning the Derby.
• Litmus Test: Trained by Baffert, this maiden winner has already run in three Grade 1s – fourth in the Del Mar Futurity, third in the Breeders’ Futurity, and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
• Desert Gate: Another colt trained by Baffert. Won the Best Pal Stakes (G3), ran second in the Del Mar Futurity, and second in the American Pharoah.
• Universe: A maiden winner at first asking, the colt trained by McPeek finished third in the Champagne and second in the Street Sense.

Upcoming Kentucky Derby Point-Qualifiers

Churchill Downs, home of the Derby, is the next track to host a Derby prep race – the $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) on Nov. 29, offering 10-5-3-2-1 points to the top five finishers.

Next up will be the $250,000 Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct on Dec. 6 (points: 10-5-3-2-1), followed by $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) on Dec. 13 at Los Alamitos (points: 10-5-3-2-1).

US Racing Team

The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.