Now it gets serious on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. There are three pivotal Derby prep races this weekend, all offering qualifying points on a sliding scale of 50-25-15-10-5 to the top five finishers.
On Saturday, the $425,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) tops the Gulfstream Park card, packed with eight graded stakes, and the $300,000 Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct is the headline event.
On Sunday, the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park features current top Derby contenders Silent Tactic, Strategic Risk, Soldier N Diplomat, Blackout Time, and possibly Litmus Test.
A win in any of these races and your 3-year-old clinches a spot in the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs on May 2. Even a second-place finish could put as many as a half-dozen horses into the field based on the history of points needed to be included in the Derby field, limited to 20 starters.
This adds an intriguing element for bettors to consider: Does your pick have to win, or is a solid runner-up or even a third-place effort good enough that trainers may be planning on another prep when the points soar to 100-50-25-15-10? Exotic wagers are likely the best way to cover all possibilities.
With that in mind, this week’s US Racing Kentucky Derby Top 10 Contenders underwent little change from a week ago.
Holy Bull Stakes (G3) winner Nearly is still No. 1 as he prepares for the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28, and Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner Paladin stays at No. 2, with his next start now set for the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on April 4. Further Ado has yet to make his 3-year-old debut and drops a notch to No. 4.
Huge changes are in the cards for next week, with three of our Top 10 contenders in action, and several others on the verge of cracking the Top 10.
Silent Tactic, now No. 3, and Litmus Test, No. 6, are both entered in the Rebel, but trainer Bob Baffert could opt to scratch Litmus Test in favor of the San Felipe Stakes (G2) on March 7.
Napoleon Solo, No. 7 this week, is the one to beat in the Fountain of Youth, with top challengers including Commandment and Talkin.
Last week, Great White won the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes to move onto the Derby trail, while the Euro/Mideast Road to the Derby saw Brotherly Love win the Dubai Road to the Kentucky Derby Stakes and Lucky Kid win the Hyacinth Stakes on the Japan Road to the Derby.
Worked 4 furlongs in leisurely 50.98 seconds at Palm Beach Downs on Feb. 20, his second work since winning Holy Bull on Jan. 31 ... Won’t race again until the end of March, but upcoming preps could rearrange current rankings ... Winner of three straight after career debut sixth back in October ... Owner: Donald Little’s Centennial Farm ... Purchased for $350,000 at 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale ... Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 28 ... No. 11 on Derby points leaderboard (20). Derby future wager odds (pool 4): 10-1
Unbeaten in three starts after Risen Star win on Feb. 14 ... Won’t run again until April as a final prep, but already has enough qualifying points to run for the roses on May 2 ... Gaffalione was aboard in Risen Star for first time, and seems likely to retain the mount ... Owners: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, Brook Smith, Summer Wind Equine ... Pedigree: Gun Runner-Secret Sigh, by Tapit ... Purchased for $1.9 million at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale 2024 ... Next start: Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland, April 4 ... No. 1 on Derby points leaderboard (60). Derby future wager odds: 14-1
Southwest Stakes winner on Feb. 6 is only third betting choice in stacked Rebel field (which also includes stablemate Strategic Risk) ... Owner: John Oxley ... Pedigree: Tacitus-Magical Sign, by Gun Runner ... Purchased for $500,000 at Ocala Breeders’ Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training 2025 ... Next start: Rebel Stales, Oaklawn Park, March 1 ... No. 4 on Derby points leaderboard (25). Derby future wager odds: 19-1
Another solid workout at Payson Park on Feb. 21 – 5 furlongs in 1:01, fastest of 28 at the distance – as he prepares for 3-year-old debut ... ... Has a maiden win by 20 lengths and a last time out win in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs on Nov. 28 ... Owner: Spendthrift Farm ... Pedigree: Gun Runner-Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa ... Purchased for $510,000 at Ocala Breeders’ Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training ... Next start: Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay Downs, March 7 ...... No. 19 on Derby points leaderboard (10). Derby future wager odds: 24-1.
Impressive late rally for third in Risen Star on Feb. 14 keeps colt in the Derby mix ... Won Lecomte Stakes over same Fair Grounds track to go 2-0 before first loss ... A top five finish in next start would give colt enough points to make the Derby field ... Owners: Phipps Stable, St. Elias Stable ... Pedigree: Curlin-Carrumba, by Bernadini ... Next start: Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, March 21 ... No. 3 on Derby points leaderboard (35). Derby future wager odds: 32-1
Baffert is an eight-time winner of the Rebel, and Litmus Test makes 3-year-old debut that could result in No. 9 for Hall of Fame trainer ... Worked 4 furlongs in 47.80 at Santa Anita on Feb. 14 ... Won Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 13 following a fourth-place finish in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Oct. 31 ... Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan ... Pedigree: Nyquist-Study Hard, by Malibu Moon ... Purchased for $875,000 at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale 2024 ... Next race: Rebel Stakes, Oaklawn Park, March 1 ... No. 14 on Derby points leaderboard (19). Derby future wager odds: 38-1.
The Champagne Stakes winner on Oct. 4 and 2-0, prepping for 3-year-old debut; worked 4 furlongs in 48.45 at Palm Meadows Training Center, fourth fastest of 48 at the distance ... Owner: Gold Square (Al Gold) ... Pedigree: Liam’s Map-Atomic Blonde, by Scat Daddy ... Purchased for $40,000 at Keeneland September Yearling Sale 2024 ... Next race: Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream Park, Feb. 28 ... No. 18 on Derby points leaderboard (10). Derby future wager odds: 30-1.
Renegade worked 4 furlongs in leisurely 50.80 on Feb. 20 at Palm Beach Downs after winning Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 7 ... Previous two races: finished first in a maiden race but was DQ’d (Paladin was elevated to first) at Aqueduct on Oct. 17, finished second in the Remsen ... Owners: Robert Low, Lawana Low, Repole Stable ... Pedigree: Into Mischief-Spice is Nice, by Curlin ... Purchased for $975,000 at Keeneland September Yearling Sale 2024 ... Next race: Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay Downs, March 3 ... No. 5 on Derby points leaderboard (25). Derby future wage odds: 16-1
Gives Baffert another “legit’’ Derby contender after impressive win in Robert B. Lewis on Feb. 7 (Baffert has several others in Boyd, Brant and Buetane) ... Needed five starts for first career win, but previously ran second in Del Mar Juvenile Turf and third in the American Pharoah ... Owners: Mrs. John Magnier, Derrick Smith, Michael Tabor ... Pedigree: Into Mischief-Stellar Wind, by Curlin ... Purchase price unavailable ... Next race: San Felipe, March 7 or Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita, April 4 ... No. 8 on Derby points leaderboard (23). Derby future wager odds: 27-1
Worked 4 furlongs in 48.80 on Feb. 21 at Santa Anita under Berrios ... Owns win over Plutarch in American Pharoah, then was beaten three-quarters of a length by him in Robert B. Lewis ... Owner: Dutch Girl Holdings, Irving Ventures ... Pedigree: Maximus Mischief-Overly Indulgent, by Pleasantly Perfect ... Purchased for $385,000 at Ocala Breeders’ Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training 2025 ... Next race: San Felipe, Santa Anita, March 7 or Santa Anita Derby, April 4 ... No. 6 on Derby points leaderboard (23). Derby future wager odds: 82-1
Richard Rosenblatt is an award-winning journalist and former Associated Press Horse Racing Editor. Currently, he serves as the news editor at US Racing, overseeing exclusive content from contributors worldwide.
