Tampa Bay Downs has been running the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) since 1981. Although none of its 45 winners won the Kentucky Derby (G1), a few distinguished themselves in Grade 1 races as 3-year-olds.
Bluegrass Cat (2006) was second in the Derby and the Belmont Stakes (G1). Any Given Saturday (2007) stunned Curlin in the Haskell Stakes (G1), and General Quarters upset the 2009 Blue Grass. Destin (2016) took the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) before getting nosed out in the Belmont.
Still, it’s impossible to ignore 0-for-45. Unlike Gulfstream, Santa Anita, and Oaklawn Park, which usually send multiple contenders to Churchill Downs, Derby traffic from Tampa Bay Downs is light, if not nonexistent. The track on Florida’s Gulf Coast is on a back road, not a superhighway, to Louisville.
The 46th edition of the $250,000, 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis is Saturday (race 11, post time 5:30 p.m. ET). The first five finishers will receive Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 20-10-6-4-2 sliding scale. The top five in the co-feature, the listed Suncoast Stakes for 3-year-old fillies, will be awarded the same number of points for the Kentucky Oaks (G1).
The nine-horse field includes four maidens and only three horses who have won twice. Oddly, one of the maidens, Pletcher’s 0-for-3 closer Renegade, has the best figures and shapes up as the likeliest winner. He’s the 8-5 morning-line favorite.
The royally bred son of perennial leading sire Into Mischief, out of a mare by Hall of Famer Curlin, did finish first in his second start but was disqualified. His runner-up effort last time in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes (G2) against the promising Paladin showed improvement and an aptitude for longer distances. Another plus: Pletcher has won this race seven times.
If Renegade doesn’t move forward, Cox’s Confessional (2-1) could capitalize. He comes in off a second, going 7 furlongs behind Pletcher’s Nearly, who crushed the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) in his next race. Confessional tries stakes company and two turns for the first time. However, his early speed and bloodlines (by Essential Quality out of an American Pharoah mare) are major positives.
Dr. Kapur is also speedy and could put pressure on Confessional, which would improve Renegade’s chances.
Todd Pletcher’s Demoiselle Stakes (G2) heroine Zany tops the 1 1/16-mile, $125,000 Suncoast, whose winner has yet to win the Oaks. But two years ago, Pletcher’s Nest was the runner-up in the fillies’ Derby counterpart before coming in second in the Belmont behind stablemate Mo Donegal.
Zany is 2-for-2 by a total of 15 lengths, including an 8½-length demolition of the 1 1/8-mile Demoiselle. Life of Joy, a daughter of Gun Runner trained by Brad Cox, has a good chance to complete a small exacta. Zany is the 2-5 morning-line favorite.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
