The 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby just found its lightning bolt. While winter usually produces steady improvers, Todd Pletcher just unveiled a monster that threatens to rewrite the speed maps for the entire three-year-old crop. “Nearly”, a son of “Not This Time”, did not just win the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park; he systematically dismantled a field of high-level contenders with the kind of ease that sends a shiver through the betting markets.
The clock stopped in 1:44.52 for the 1 1/16 miles, but the number that really matters is the 98 Beyer Speed Figure. This figure represents the highest number earned by any three-year-old so far this season, eclipsing the previous benchmarks and firmly establishing Nearly as the horse to beat in the upcoming prep cycle. For those scouring the 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds, this performance serves as a massive wake-up call.
Todd Pletcher knows how to prepare a horse for the first Saturday in May, but Nearly looks like he is ahead of schedule. Entering the Holy Bull, many questioned if the colt could handle the two-turn stretch-out after dominating in shorter sprints. Nearly answered those doubts within the first quarter-mile. He sat comfortably outside the pacesetter, Cannoneer, through fractions of :22.82 and :45.96. These are aggressive times for a route race, yet Nearly looked like he was out for a morning jog.
When Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez shifted his weight at the quarter pole, the race ended instantly. Nearly accelerated with a devastating turn of foot, widening his margin to 5 3/4 lengths at the wire. The 98 Beyer Speed Figure confirms what the naked eye suggested: this is an elite athlete operating at a different frequency than his peers. This number places him significantly ahead of other Kentucky Derby contenders who are struggling to break into the 90s this early in the year.
To understand the gravity of this performance, we must compare Nearly to Pletcher’s recent champions. Last year, the racing world marveled at Fierceness, who posted massive figures but often struggled with consistency. Fierceness actually disappointed in the Holy Bull before finding his best form later in the spring. Nearly, conversely, seems more professional and reliable at this stage of his development.
If you look back at Pletcher’s Derby winners like Always Dreaming and Super Saver, they rarely displayed this level of raw speed in early February. Always Dreaming earned a 102 Beyer in his Florida Derby win, but he wasn’t hitting 98s in the Holy Bull. By producing this figure now, Nearly suggests a much higher ceiling. Professional bettors currently analyzing 2026 Kentucky Derby betting markets see a horse that possesses both the tactical speed of a sprinter and the lung capacity of a classic stayer.
The immediate aftermath of the Holy Bull saw a sharp adjustment in the futures market. Before the race, you could find Nearly at generous prices in the 25-1 or 30-1 range. Those days are gone. As the Kentucky Derby leaderboard updates to reflect his 20 qualifying points, his price is plummeting across all major sportsbooks. Most analysts now place him as the second choice in the overall wagering pools, trailing only the currently sidelined juvenile champion.
This creates a dilemma for those who want to bet on Kentucky Derby online. Is Nearly priced too low now? At 8-1 or 10-1 in the futures, the "value" has certainly evaporated, but the "certainty" has increased. When a horse proves he can handle the Gulfstream surface and two turns while running a 98 Beyer, he becomes a defensive necessity for any betting portfolio. You aren't just betting on a horse; you are betting on the Pletcher-Velazquez machine, which has mastered these Kentucky Derby prep races over the last two decades.
We must ask: can Nearly go faster? Historically, horses that peak too early with massive figures in January or February often "bounce" or regress when the distances reach 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles. However, Nearly’s pedigree suggests he is just getting started. His sire, Not This Time, consistently produces runners who improve with distance and age. If Nearly maintains this trajectory, we could see a triple-digit Beyer in the Florida Derby, which would make him a near-certain favorite on Derby Day.
If you are tracking 2026 Kentucky Derby odds to bet trends, watch the speed figures of the winners in the upcoming Risen Star and Rebel Stakes. If no one manages to eclipse Nearly's 98, the hype train will become a freight train. The current 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds reflect a market that is terrified of missing out on the next Triple Crown threat. Nearly hasn't just joined the conversation; he has taken the microphone and started the keynote speech.
Savvy players utilize Kentucky Derby futures to lock in prices before the final prep races. While Nearly is the "buzz" horse, his emergence actually creates value for other runners. As the public pours money into the Pletcher trainee, the odds on high-quality West Coast or Fair Grounds horses may drift upward. However, ignoring a 98 Beyer in the Holy Bull is a dangerous game. Only a handful of horses in the last decade have posted such a high figure this early and failed to make a massive impact in the Triple Crown.
When you look at the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, remember that points get you into the gate, but speed figures get you into the winner's circle. Nearly has both. He sits comfortably in the top tier of the standings, meaning Pletcher can now "bubble wrap" him and pick his spots. This luxury of choice often leads to a fresher, more dangerous horse come May. If you plan to bet on Kentucky Derby online, you must decide if you believe in the Beyer scale or if you are waiting for a blue-blood closer to emerge from the clouds.
Nearly wins because he occupies the "Goldilocks" zone of tactical positioning. He isn't a "need-the-lead" speedball that will wilt under pressure, nor is he a deep closer at the mercy of traffic and pace. He sits just off the shoulder of the leader, ready to strike. In a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field, this is the most advantageous style. It allows the jockey to avoid the chaos of the first turn while staying close enough to avoid getting stuck behind tiring horses.
The betting public is starting to realize that Nearly might be Pletcher's most "complete" prospect since Always Dreaming. His efficiency of stride and calmness under pressure in the Holy Bull suggest a horse that won't be rattled by the 150,000 fans at Churchill Downs. As you evaluate 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds, consider the mental makeup of the horse as much as the final time. Nearly looks like a professional athlete in a league of amateurs.
As we move toward the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and the eventual Grade 1 Florida Derby, Nearly remains the gold standard. The betting markets for the 2026 Kentucky Derby betting will continue to fluctuate, but the 98 Beyer is a permanent mark on his resume. Whether you are a casual fan or a professional handicapper, this horse demands your attention. He has the trainer, the jockey, the pedigree, and most importantly, the speed.
Do not wait until the odds drop to 3-1 on the first Saturday in May. The time to evaluate your position on the top Kentucky Derby contenders is now. Nearly has laid down the gauntlet. He is the king of the speed figures, the leader of the East Coast preps, and the most legitimate threat we have seen in years. The "Nearly" takeover is no longer a possibility; it is a reality that every bettor must confront.
Nearly’s performance in the Holy Bull changed the entire complexion of the Triple Crown trail. You rarely see a 98 Beyer this early in the year, and you almost never see it done with such effortless grace. If you want to capitalize on this insight, the window is closing fast. The 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds will only get shorter as Nearly continues his march toward Churchill Downs.
Are you ready to back a potential legend, or will you watch from the sidelines as the Pletcher stable collects another blanket of roses? The smart money is already moving. Position yourself for success and get skin in the game before the next big prep race. Bet on Kentucky Derby online today and secure your stake in the most exciting three-year-old campaign in recent memory. The Road to the Derby runs through Nearly; make sure you're on the right side of history.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
