With the new year upon us, and 2-year-olds turning 3 on Jan. 1, the Road to the Kentucky Derby is ready to turn a bit more serious.
For bettors analyzing promising prospects to Run for the Rose on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs, a few new names popped into the picture over the weekend
On Saturday (Dec. 20), Chip Honcho ($9.80) won the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes at the Fair Grounds for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, while later in the evening at Remington Park in Oklahoma City, 34-1 longshot Express Kid ($71) won the $300,000 Springboard Mile by 6 ¼ lengths.
Each race awarded 10 Derby qualifying points to the winner and likely had their trainers mapping out paths to the Derby.
Asmussen, who is 0-for-28 in the Derby, also had three entries in the Springboard, but they ran fifth, ninth, and 11th. Meanwhile, Express Kid was purchased for $2,000 at auction in Arizona and gave trainer Wade Rarick the biggest win of his career – so far.
“I don't have a lot of this kind,’’ Rarick said after his colt went gate-to-wire under Jose Alvaraz. “He is eligible for a lot of things in Arizona, but I think we might go a different direction with him now.”
All 11 Derby preps for 2-year-olds in the United States have been contested, and 10 of the races awarded qualify points of 10-5-3-2-1 to the top five finishers. The other race was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), which awarded 30-15-9-6-3 points to the top five finishers.
And that leads us to Ted Noffey, the BC Juvenile winner, undefeated at 4-0, including three Grade 1 races, and the early Derby favorite for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. He’ll likely be voted an Eclipse Award as the 2-year-old male champion next month.
Ted Noffey is the 7-1 individual betting favorite in Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which closed on Dec. 3. Pool 3 wagering opens Jan. 16 with three more pools to follow leading up to the 152nd edition of the Derby. The gray son of Into Mischief also sits atop the Derby points leaderboard with 40, already enough to make the field limited to 20 starters.
With Pletcher now based in Florida, Ted Noffey’s 3-year-old debut is likely to be at Gulfstream Park, with the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) on Jan. 31 possible or the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) on Feb. 28.
For those in the Ted Noffey camp, get those early wagers in now because the belief is he’s the real deal, will come off the Florida road to the Derby, and be among the favorites at much shorter than 7-1.
Of course, there’s always this: Only two BC Juvenile winners have gone on to capture the Derby – Street Sense and Nyquist.
In the second year of his Derby return following a three-year suspension by Churchill Downs, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has his usual arsenal of talented 2-year-olds.
On the Derby leaderboard, he has five in top 25 – No. 2 Litmus Test (19 points), winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), No. 13 Brant (9 points), third in the BC Juvenile, No. 16 Desert Gate (5 points), second in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), No. 21 Blacksmith (5 points), second in the Los Alamitos Futurity and No. 24 Plutarch (3 points), third in the American Pharoah.
Baffert is tied for the most Derby wins with six. In 2021, Medina Spirit finished first for Baffert but was later disqualified for a race-day overage of a medication, thus denying him a record-breaking seventh Derby victory.
Over the past few days, it was learned that Mr. A.P., second to Ted Noffey in the BC Juvenile, is off the Derby trail with an undisclosed injury sustained during training, his trainer, Vladimir Cerin, said.
Here are the other early contenders (with future wager odds included), all with 10 or more qualifying points.
Intrepido (13 points, 74-1), winner of the Street Sense Stakes (G3) for trainer Jeff Mullins.
Universe (13 points, 32-1), third in the Champagne Stakes and second in the Kentucky Jockey Club for trainer Kenny McPeek.
Spice Runner (11 points, 35-1), winner of the Iroquois Stakes (G3), but 11th and last in the Springboard Mile last out.
Napoleon Solo (10 points, 21-1), winner of the Champagne for trainer Chad Summers.
Further Ado (10 points, 13-1), winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club for trainer Brad Cox.
Express Kid (10 points, 2-1), surprise winner of the Springboard Mile for trainer Ward Rarick. List at 2-1 as part of all other foals from the 2023 foal crop
Paladin (10 points, 22-1), winner of the Remsen Stakes (Gx) for trainer Chad Brown.
Incredibolt (10 points, 28-1), winner of the Street Sense for trainer Riley Mott, the son of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.
Chip Honcho (10 points, 112-1), winner of the Gun Runner Stakes for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who is seeking his first Derby win (he’s 0-for-28).
These are just the 2-year-olds who came up with victories in the early stages of the Derby prep campaign. So, stay on top of things as more and more contenders pop up while others may regress as the race distances increase, and trainers get a better idea of what their newly turned 3-year-olds can handle.
The 1-mile Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct and the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 3 are the opening Derby preps for 3-year-olds.
The points awarded remain at 10-5-3-2-1 for the top five finishers for these two, and then things get more interesting. The following eight preps award 20-10-6-4-2 points to the top five finishers, followed by seven preps at 50-25-15-10-5 points, and seven preps at 100-50-25-15-10 points. A final prep, the Lexington Stakes (G3), run on April 11, could give contenders close to cracking the top 20 a final chance with points awarded at 20-10-6-4-2.
Richard Rosenblatt is an award-winning journalist and former Associated Press Horse Racing Editor. Currently, he serves as the news editor at US Racing, overseeing exclusive content from contributors worldwide.
