The road to the 152nd Run for the Roses took a sharp, dusty turn in New Mexico this past weekend. Pavlovian, a gritty gray colt trained by the legendary Doug O’Neill, just injected a massive dose of adrenaline into the 2026 Kentucky Derby betting markets. Carrying the iconic white and purple silks of Reddam Racing, Pavlovian didn't just win the $500,000 Sunland Derby; he survived a brutal, lung-searing stretch duel that left the odds-on favorite, Express Kid, a mere nose short at the wire. This victory secures 20 critical points on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard and forces every serious handicapper to re-evaluate their longshot portfolio.
We have seen this movie before, and it usually ends with a blanket of roses in Kentucky. Doug O’Neill possesses an uncanny ability to identify Southern California talent that thrives in the high-desert air of Sunland Park. History tells us that an O’Neill runner winning in New Mexico is a flashing red light for anyone looking at 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds. Look back at the 2022 season when O’Neill sent Slow Down Andy to Sunland to secure his spot in Louisville. O’Neill understands that the Sunland surface prepares a horse for the physical demands of Churchill Downs, and in Pavlovian, he might have found his most resilient "sneak attack" yet.
Speed figures only tell half the story in horse racing; heart narrates the rest. Pavlovian stopped the clock for the 1 1/16 miles in :1:42.22, but the raw time pales in comparison to his competitive spirit. After Express Kid appeared to shake loose at the top of the stretch, Pavlovian refused to yield. Under a relentless drive by jockey Edwin Maldonado, the colt re-engaged, found another gear, and thrust his head forward in the final jump. This "nose-on-the-wire" tenacity defines winning Kentucky Derby contenders. When you bet on Kentucky Derby online, you look for horses that can handle the 20-horse traffic jam of the first Saturday in May. Pavlovian proved he has the tactical speed to stay clear and the mental toughness to finish the job.
Doubters will point to Pavlovian’s sire, Pavel, and wonder if the stamina holds up for a mile and a quarter. However, Pavel himself was a globetrotting Grade 1 winner who thrived in deep, demanding stretches. Pavlovian is a California-bred homebred out of the Bellamy Road mare Mandy’s Grace, a lineage that screams "classic distance." The Bellamy Road influence adds a layer of cruising speed, allowing Pavlovian to sit just off the lead without wasting energy. This efficiency is why many analysts now view him as one of the most intriguing Kentucky Derby futures options currently available.
Before the Sunland Derby gates opened, Pavlovian was a blip on the radar, largely ignored in national circles. Following his victory, the offshore and domestic markets moved quickly, yet you can still find him hovering around 40/1 in various pools. Compared to the 8/1 or 10/1 prices on horses like Paladin or Nearly, Pavlovian offers massive value. The 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds often overvalue the winners of the Florida Derby or the Blue Grass Stakes while overlooking the blue-collar winners of the "secondary" Kentucky Derby prep races. Getting 40/1 on a two-time Derby-winning trainer's top prospect is a mathematical gift for any value-oriented bettor.
With 20 points now in the bag, Pavlovian officially sits inside the top 20 of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. This ranking virtually guarantees him a spot in the starting gate, provided he stays healthy. Unlike other trainers who feel the pressure to "point hunt" in March, O’Neill can now focus purely on the horse’s fitness. He doesn't need to over-race Pavlovian to get into the field. This luxury allows for a much more deliberate training schedule, peaking exactly when the sirens blare at Churchill Downs.
O’Neill’s championship pedigree is undeniable. He conquered the Derby with I’ll Have Another in 2012 and the undefeated Nyquist in 2016. While Pavlovian isn't undefeated like Nyquist, he shares the same tactical versatility as I’ll Have Another. He doesn't need the lead to win, but he is fast enough to take it if the pace is soft. This flexibility is the hallmark of O’Neill’s successful Derby campaigns. When looking at the current crop of Kentucky Derby contenders, few possess the combination of experience and upward trajectory that Pavlovian displayed this weekend.
Savvy bettors know that the Sunland Derby often produces horses that outrun their odds in Kentucky. The track at Sunland Park is known for being fast and demanding, frequently mimicking the "tight" turns and firm dirt found at Churchill Downs. Pavlovian’s performance on this surface suggests he will relish the transition to Kentucky’s clay-based soil. As you prepare for your 2026 Kentucky Derby betting strategy, don't let the "listed stakes" status of the Sunland Derby fool you. The quality of the field he defeated, including a high-priced sale horse like Express Kid, confirms that Pavlovian belongs in the elite tier of his generation.
Where will we see the gray ghost next? O’Neill has several options, including the Santa Anita Derby or perhaps a return to the Midwest for the Blue Grass Stakes. Regardless of the destination, Pavlovian’s next start will be one of the most-watched Kentucky Derby prep races of the season. If he can replicate his Sunland performance against a Grade 1 field in California or Kentucky, those 40/1 odds will vanish instantly, likely crashing down to 12/1 or lower. Locking in your position now on the 2026 Kentucky Derby betting markets is the only way to capitalize on this temporary price discrepancy.
The Kentucky Derby is often won or lost in the first quarter-mile. Horses that lack tactical speed get shuffled back and trapped behind tiring longshots. Pavlovian showed in the Sunland Derby that he can break alertly and secure a "clean air" position. Edwin Maldonado noted that the horse is still learning, which is a frightening prospect for his rivals. If Pavlovian is this good while still "green," imagine his potential when he fully understands his job. This upside makes him a standout among the current Kentucky Derby futures selections.
International specialists and off-track betting (OTB) pros are already hammering Pavlovian in the early books. They see a horse that has survived the "filter" of a tough prep race and emerged with a higher Beyer Speed Figure than many of his peers in New York or Florida. When you bet on Kentucky Derby online, you are essentially betting on which horse has the most "room to grow" between February and May. Pavlovian is currently on a steep upward curve, making him the quintessential "wise guy" horse for the 2026 cycle.
The Sunland Derby gave us more than just a photo finish; it gave us a legitimate contender for the roses. Pavlovian possesses the trainer, the pedigree, and the grit required to win the world's most famous horse race. The 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds will not stay at 40/1 for long. As the Kentucky Derby leaderboard continues to solidify, the window to grab elite value on this Doug O’Neill "sneak attack" is closing rapidly.
Are you ready to turn a 40/1 sleeper into a massive payday? Don't wait for the hype train to leave the station. Stay tuned to US Racing, access our exclusive betting tools, and place your bets on Pavlovian before the rest of the world catches on. The road to the winner's circle starts right here; secure your 2026 Kentucky Derby position now.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
