The autumn leaves change color and the Breeders’ Cup dust settles, signaling a crucial pivot in the horse racing calendar: the official launch of the early Kentucky Derby prep season. This three-month stretch, spanning November, December, and January, transforms the landscape from juvenile supremacy into sophomore potential. Smart horseplayers and dedicated fans know these races define the initial leaderboard, offering the first essential qualifying points necessary to secure a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. We dissect the most significant early contests, reveal what they tell us about a colt’s actual Kentucky Derby chances, and explain precisely why you must start setting your Kentucky Derby betting strategies now.
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The late days of November immediately thrust the two-year-olds into serious Derby consideration, demanding they stretch out in distance for the first time while facing stiffer competition. These races, the Kentucky Jockey Club and the Remsen Stakes, each award 10-5-3-2-1 points to the top five finishers, making a win here an early gold ticket.
Securing these first ten points offers trainers flexibility and a cushion as they plan their high-stakes campaigns for the 50- and 100-point races next spring. Savvy bettors watch the running styles in these early tests closely, knowing they provide critical data for future Kentucky Derby odds.
Held annually at Churchill Downs, the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes demands immediate respect because it forces young horses to win over the very same track they must eventually conquer in May. This 1 1/16-mile contest serves as an invaluable gauge for a juvenile’s ability to handle the deep, demanding Louisville surface, which often throws a curveball at horses shipping in from faster tracks. We assess how a colt navigates the twin spires, the tight turn, and the long stretch, and evaluate its ability to carry its speed over the two-turn distance.
Notable winners include Breeders' Cup Juvenile participants and future stars who utilize this race to solidify their position near the top of the Kentucky Derby odds boards before the winter break. Handicappers who want to bet on Kentucky Derby contenders must prioritize performance here, giving maximum weight to any colt that demonstrates grit on the historic dirt.
New York racing shifts gears dramatically in early December, delivering the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack, a race that truly separates the precocious juveniles from the legitimate Kentucky Derby contenders.
Running over the deepest dirt surface in North America and contested at nine furlongs, the Remsen asks more of a young horse’s stamina than almost any other early prep. Colossal challenges await horses inexperienced with the distance, punishing those lacking the pedigree or mental fortitude to maintain a sustained run through the stretch.
Success in the Remsen usually means the colt possesses the genuine two-turn ability and closing speed necessary to contend with the intense competition that will dominate the later stages of the Road to the Derby. This event frequently impacts future Kentucky Derby betting pools as winners often move south to Florida or west to California for their subsequent three-year-old campaigns.
December brings a trio of stakes races across the United States, giving trainers specific targets depending on their geographical base and their horse’s running style. The action moves from the deep Eastern tracks to the tighter ovals of the West Coast and Midwest, each presenting unique challenges that clarify the initial picture of the 20-horse field.
These late-year contests, including the Los Alamitos Futurity and the Springboard Mile, offer a final chance to snag 10-5-3-2-1 points before the calendar turns and the point values begin to double in January. Horsemen utilize this period either to bank points or to give their colts a valuable experience-builder at a distance before a brief winter hiatus.
The Los Alamitos Futurity, run over 1 1/16 miles in Southern California, typically serves as a key indicator of West Coast dominance in the three-year-old division. The tighter configuration of the Los Alamitos main track favors horses with sharp tactical speed and the ability to handle a quick, challenging turn.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert historically treats this race as his primary December target, using it as a springboard for many of his eventual Triple Crown starters. Although the point structure remains 10-5-3-2-1, the race's inherent quality and its traditional connection to top-level training operations often cause significant fluctuation in the national Kentucky Derby odds. Sharp observers who closely track the West Coast action will bet on Kentucky Derby prospects emerging from this field, regardless of the overall point totals, due to the high caliber of the competition.
Remington Park in Oklahoma City hosts the Springboard Mile, a one-turn mile contest that offers a vital 10-point bounty to horses based in the heartland circuits. While sometimes overlooked by the dominant coastal stables, this race plays a crucial role for trainers seeking to avoid the competitive traffic of the East and West coasts.
The Springboard Mile often attracts horses that excel at single-turn speed, forcing us to evaluate whether their brilliance translates to success around two turns, a mandatory skill for the Kentucky Derby distance. Victors here often proceed directly to major 20-point races at Oaklawn Park, making the Springboard Mile a key precursor for future analysis and a defining moment for mid-tier runners attempting to cement their standing in the Kentucky Derby betting hierarchy.
The Kentucky Derby landscape explodes in January when the qualifying points double, increasing the pressure and the importance of every stride. This pivotal month includes the Jerome Stakes, the Holy Bull Stakes, the Lecomte Stakes, and the Southwest Stakes, making a definitive statement about who belongs in the elite division. The point distribution for the majority of these races—20-10-6-4-2—gives winners a significant leg up, virtually guaranteeing them a spot on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard and fundamentally shifting the current Kentucky Derby odds. Now, horses must not only show talent but also demonstrate durability and the ability to win over deeper, stronger fields.
Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans hosts the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile contest that officially marks the start of the second, more lucrative tier of qualifying races. Historically, the Lecomte provides key insights into horses that thrive in distance racing, often favoring closers due to the long, sweeping stretch at Fair Grounds.
The 20-point winner immediately establishes a strong claim to a Derby starting spot, allowing connections to relax slightly and plan a less strenuous schedule moving toward the 100-point races. Smart players understand that the quality of the competition here dramatically affects the future of Kentucky Derby betting markets, as Fair Grounds boasts a proven record of producing serious Derby contenders who thrive on the New Orleans circuit.
Gulfstream Park, the winter headquarters for many top East Coast stables, launches its Kentucky Derby prep season with the Holy Bull Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile race that showcases speed and stamina on its lightning-fast surface.
This race consistently attracts runners from premier barns like those of Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown, instantly raising the quality of the field and providing a true test of a colt’s three-year-old progression. The 20 points awarded ensure that the winner becomes a household name, prominently featured in all discussions regarding the current Kentucky Derby odds. We always pay close attention to the pace dynamics here, noting which horses can sit just off a hot pace and still finish powerfully, a necessary skill to bet on Kentucky Derby glory successfully.
Oaklawn Park in Arkansas enters the Derby picture in late January with the Southwest Stakes. This 1 1/16-mile contest often features a massive purse and draws high-quality horses from both the Midwest and Southern California circuits.
Known for producing tough, battle-tested runners, the Southwest tests a colt’s sheer determination over the robust Oaklawn strip. The 20-10-6-4-2 point structure ensures that the top finishers leapfrog many of the earlier 10-point earners on the leaderboard, compelling trainers to target this race aggressively. This race serves as a reliable harbinger of the ensuing Oaklawn prep series, giving us vital information we use to calculate the ever-changing Kentucky Derby betting valuations.
The New York circuit kicks off its three-year-old campaign with the Jerome Stakes, run at the one-mile distance at Aqueduct. This race usually offers a 10-5-3-2-1 point distribution, placing it in the first tier of the points series.
While the mile distance sometimes favors pure speed over the sustained stamina required for the Derby’s 10 furlongs, the Jerome successfully identifies sharp runners who emerge ready to compete after the winter break. We carefully observe how the winner handles the stretch-out from juvenile sprints and consider whether its pedigree truly supports the added distance it must face in later preps. The Jerome winner immediately gains attention and sees a favorable adjustment in the Kentucky Derby odds marketplace.
November, December, and January lay the necessary foundation for the entire Road to the Kentucky Derby, generating the first critical points and revealing the true athletes who successfully transition from juvenile prospects to legitimate three-year-old contenders.
These early contests, ranging from the deep, grueling conditions of the Remsen to the tactical speed needed at Los Alamitos, offer serious handicappers an essential head start. You must recognize the shift in point values and understand that every horse that scores in these initial races moves one step closer to the ultimate goal.
Don’t wait until the 100-point races begin in spring; the time to analyze form, study pedigree, and establish your initial positions on the Kentucky Derby odds is right now. Secure your account and bet on Kentucky Derby contenders today, capitalizing on the value before the rest of the world catches on.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
