San Vicente Stakes a Step Toward Kentucky Derby: Odds, Picks, Analysis

San Vicente Stakes a Step toward Kentucky Derby

Jockey Juan Hernandez is seeking a fifth consecutive victory in the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita on Saturday when the jockey climbs aboard Buetane for trainer Bob Baffert, who has won this race a record 14 times.

Buetane is the 6-5 morning-line favorite in the 7-furlong test for 3-year-olds that drew a compact field of five. Hernandez won Forbidden Kingdom (2022), Havnameltdown (2023), Muth (2024), and Barnes (2025) aboard.

The San Vicente is not a Kentucky Derby (G1) points qualifier but a stepping stone to future Kentucky Derby preps in California, including the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3), San Felipe Stakes (G2), and the Santa Anita Derby (G1). The record for most wins by a jockey is eight by Bill Shoemaker.

Also entered: Greenwich Village, also trained by Baffert, So Happy, Acknowledgemeplz, and Thirsty Rebel.

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San Vicente Stakes History

Inaugurated in 1935 during the first live meet at Santa Anita as the San Vicente Handicap for older horses, the race shifted to focus on 3-year-olds by the 1950s and became a key Kentucky Derby (G1) prep on the West Coast circuit. It was originally run at various distances, including 6 furlongs and a mile, before settling at its current distance of seven furlongs on dirt in 1955.

Graded status for the San Vicente came in the 1970s, and the purse has held steady at $200,000 since 2014. In years past, the San Vicente was considered an important stop on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Even though 2016’s winner, champion Nyquist, went on to win the Run for the Roses, the race has become Santa Anita’s forgotten sophomore feature and almost an afterthought for Derby consideration.

So maybe it's decline as being considered a legit Derby prep is because of the quality of recent runners, the 7-furlong distance, or maybe because of its date on the calendar; regardless, it’s hard to overlook the slew of good horses who have won the San Vicente in years past.

In addition to Nyquist, other notable names on the list of San Vicente winners are fellow Derby winners Hill Gail, Swaps, Lucky Debonair, Majestic Prince, and Silver Charm.

The highly regarded Nadal won in San Vicente in 2020 and went on to take the Rebel Stakes (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) before injury ended his undefeated career. Concert Tour won for owners Gary and Mary West in 2021 and then captured the Rebel Stakes and ran third in the Arkansas Derby.

Baffert has saddled five of the last six winners, including Muth in 2024 and Barnes a year ago.

San Vicente odds, horse-by-horse analysis

Let’s consider the San Vicente a solid prep for the San Felipe Stakes in March and/or the Santa Anita Derby a month later. Here’s a look at the field:

Buetane (6-5)

Buetane enters as the standout Coning off a runner-up effort in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) at Saratoga four months ago. That performance came after a sharp debut win at Del Mar, where he showed tactical speed and a strong closing kick despite some traffic issues. As a $1.15 million son of Tiz the Law owned by Zedan Racing Stables, he fits Baffert’s profile of high-class Derby hopefuls who have used this race as a launchpad to the Run for the Roses.

Juan Hernandez, aboard the last three San Vicente winners for Baffert, is likely to have Buetane stalking a moderate pace and overpowering the field late if he replicates his form. He’s the one to beat, especially on a track favoring speed.

Greenwich Village (5-1)

Also trained by Baffert, Greenwich Village is a $350,000 Quality Road colt who impressed in his debut at Los Alamitos with a 114 speed figure, drawing off by a half-length as the 7-5 second choice to his favored stablemate. Owned by a partnership including SF Racing and Starlight Racing, he doesn’t get a great draw going seven-eighths from the rail, though he could drop a bit back after the break and save ground.

While unproven against winners, his pedigree suggests upside for longer distances, and Baffert’s success with multiple entries here often leads to pace control. He’ll need to break alertly to get to the front, where he could wire the field or sit off and attempt to rate, both scenarios making him a live contender at potentially square odds.

So Happy (3-1)

So Happy steps up after a maiden-breaking win at Del Mar, earning a solid 112 speed figure while showing an impressive tactical off-the-pace turn of foot. The Mark Glatt-trained son of Runhappy, owned by Norman Stables or Saints and Sinners, gets Hall of Famer Mike Smith in the irons, which adds intrigue. However, this is a class test, and if the frontrunners fizzle, he has every opportunity to capitalize. He’s playable underneath in exotics if the top pair falters, but winning might require a perfect trip.

Acknowledgemeplz (5-2)

Acknowledgemeplz is one of two for trainer Doug O’Neill, who also trained Nyquist. He has been consistent with a second, a win, and a fourth last out in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) from three starts, but his speed figures lag behind the top choices, suggesting he might be outclassed. The Bucchero colt, owned by Purple Rein Racing, adds blinkers for this, which could sharpen his focus, and O’Neill is capable with up-and-comers. Kazushi Kimura is a strong rider, but from a near outside post, he’ll need to avoid a wide trip with speed to his inside. He’s probably best suited for the bottom of trifectas or as a longshot bomb if the pace melts down.

Thirsty Rebel (6-1)

Thirsty Rebel is O’Neill’s other runner and brings California-bred credentials with two wins from five starts, including a dominant six-length allowance romp last out against fellow Cal-breds that earned him a 106 speed figure. The Stay Thirsty gelding, owned by Mark D. Breen, has some closing ability and could benefit if the frontrunners duel early.

O’Neill’s second stringer here; he draws the far outside, which might force a wide rally, but his recent form indicates improvement. A logical exotics player, especially if the pace scenario favors closers, though beating the Baffert pair will be tough.

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The Picks 1 Buetane, 2 Greenwich Village, 3 So Happy

The field for the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2), with jockey, trainer, and odds:

  1. Greenwich Village (Hector Barrios, Bob Baffert), 5-1
  2. So Happy (Mike Smith, Mark Glatt), 3-1
  3. Buetane (Juan Hernández, Bob Baffert), 6-5
  4. Acknowledgemeplz (Kazushi Kimura, Doug O’Neill), 5-2
  5. Thirsty Rebel (Abel Lezcano, Doug O’Neill), 6-1
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