The 152nd Kentucky Derby trail officially enters its most critical phase this weekend at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans. Fans across the globe eagerly anticipate the 2026 Risen Star Stakes, which serves as the centerpiece of a massive 14-race program on Saturday, February 14, 2026. This Grade 2 event anchors a day known as "Louisiana Derby Preview Day," featuring six major stakes races. To catch the action live, viewers should tune into the BUSR Experience platform, which provides wall-to-wall coverage of the New Orleans circuit. The official post time for the Risen Star Stakes is currently scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (5:30 p.m. CT). For those who prefer digital access, most major online racebook platforms offer high-definition streaming for active account holders.
Meteorological reports for New Orleans on February 14 suggest a classic winter afternoon in the Big Easy. We expect temperatures to hover around a comfortable 65 degrees Fahrenheit during the early part of the card, though humidity levels in Louisiana always play a role in track consistency. The current forecast indicates a 20% chance of isolated showers, which could potentially shift the track from "Fast" to "Good" or even "Sloppy" if the rain intensifies. Handicappers must monitor these changes closely, as a wet surface at Fair Grounds often favors horses with tactical speed who can stay clear of the kickback. Historically, the dirt at this venue has been among the fairest in North America, but moisture can create a bias toward the rail or the outside paths, depending on how the maintenance crew handles the "seal."
The Saturday program at Fair Grounds features a wagering menu that rivals that of any major racing festival in the country. Beyond the main event, the Fasig-Tipton Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) provides 3-year-old fillies a golden opportunity to earn Kentucky Oaks points. The undercard also includes the Mineshaft Stakes (G3) for older horses and the Fair Grounds Stakes (G3) on the turf. Sharp players often look for "horizontal" betting opportunities like the Late Pick 5 or the Pick 6, which usually feature massive pools on Risen Star day. Because the field sizes remain large for these stakes-heavy cards, the payouts for exotic wagers frequently reach five or six figures. You should analyze the entire card to find the best spots to bet on Risen Star Stakes and maximize your return on investment throughout the afternoon.
History tells us that the winner of this race often becomes a household name by the first Saturday in May. While no horse has completed the Risen Star-Kentucky Derby double since the race was renamed, champions like Gun Runner (2016), Epicenter (2022), and Sierra Leone (2024) used this New Orleans platform to launch legendary careers. Last year, Magnitude shocked the world with a front-running victory at 44-1, setting a new stakes record of 1:48.85 for the 1 1/8-mile distance. The race provides 50 qualifying points to the winner, which essentially guarantees a spot in the Churchill Downs starting gate. When you look at the Risen Star Stakes odds, you are looking at more than just a single race result; you are witnessing the birth of a Triple Crown contender.
| Year | Winner | Jockey | Trainer | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Paladin | Tyler Gaffalione | Chad C. Brown | 1:49.14 |
| 2025 | Magnitude | Ben Curtis | Steven M. Asmussen | 1:48.85 |
| 2024 | Sierra Leone | Tyler Gaffalione | Chad C. Brown | 1:52.13 |
| 2023 | Angel of Empire | Luis Saez | Brad H. Cox | 1:51.47 |
| 2022 | Epicenter | Joel Rosario | Steven M. Asmussen | 1:49.30 |
| 2021 | Mandaloun | Florent Geroux | Brad H. Cox | 1:50.39 |
| 2020 | Modernist | Junior Alvarado | William I. Mott | 1:50.43 |
Before we dive into the athletes' profiles, we must understand the tactical complexity of this year's lineup. The 2026 edition features a diverse mix of proven Grade 1 winners, undefeated local heroes, and high-priced acquisitions making their seasonal debuts. Handicappers face the difficult task of weighing the "home-field" advantage of New Orleans regulars against the raw class of the New York and Florida shippers. This field features several running styles, from pure speedsters to patient closers, ensuring a fair yet furious contest over the 1 1/8-mile distance. Below, we provide an exhaustive breakdown of each horse to help you refine your wagering strategy and find the best Risen Star Stakes odds.
Kenny McPeek sends out Universe, a bay son of Global Campaign, seeking a massive rebound after a disappointing seventh-place finish in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Despite that poor showing, his 2025 form suggests he belongs with this group, having placed in the Champagne Stakes and the Kentucky Jockey Club. Christopher Elliott retains the mount and will likely try to utilize the colt’s natural stalking ability to find a clean trip from the inside post. With Risen Star Stakes odds of 8/1, Universe represents a high-ceiling value play for those who believe his last race was merely a "bounce" on a different surface. McPeek often excels at bringing horses back from a layoff or a poor effort to peak in high-stakes environments.
Golden Tempo enters the 2026 Risen Star Stakes as one of the most exciting locally based prospects. Trained by Cherie DeVaux and ridden by Jose Ortiz, this colt is currently unbeaten in two starts over the Fair Grounds main track. His victory in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) displayed a devastating turn of foot, as he inhaled the field in the final furlong. He holds official odds of 3/1, making him a major focus for anyone involved in Risen Star Stakes betting. His pedigree suggests he will thrive at the nine-furlong distance, and his familiarity with the long Fair Grounds stretch gives him a distinct home-field advantage over the shippers. Expect Ortiz to keep him tucked away in the middle of the pack before launching a wide, sweeping move at the top of the lane.
Brendan Walsh brings Carson Street back to the Fair Grounds after a gritty third-place effort in the Lecomte. Ben Curtis takes the reins on this son of Street Sense, who has shown a penchant for pressing the pace. Carson Street lacks the flashy speed figures of some of his rivals, but his consistency makes him a must-use in all underneath slots for trifecta and superfecta wagers. At 8/1 on the morning line, he provides the tactical versatility to sit just off the lead or take control if the front-runners falter. Walsh has a reputation for developing stayers, and the extra half-furlong of the Risen Star could be exactly what this colt needs to turn the tables on Golden Tempo.
The heavy favorite for the 2026 renewal is undoubtedly Paladin, the pride of the Chad Brown barn. After a dominant score in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct, Paladin enters this race with a perfect 2-for-2 record and the highest speed figures in the field. Tyler Gaffalione travels to New Orleans to ride the colt, who carries the burden of 8/5 Risen Star Stakes odds. Paladin possesses the rare combination of tactical speed and a high cruising gear that allows him to put away rivals early in the stretch. Brown has carefully managed his schedule to ensure he arrives in Louisiana fresh and ready for his three-year-old debut. Most analysts expect Paladin to be the primary target for everyone else in the field.
Steve Asmussen is the all-time leading trainer in Risen Star history, and he looks to add a fifth trophy to his mantle with Chip Honcho. This colt won the Gun Runner Stakes earlier in the meet but regressed slightly to finish fourth in the Lecomte. Luis Saez gets the call, and you can bet that Asmussen will have this horse sharp and ready for a front-running effort. With odds of 6/1, Chip Honcho is the most likely candidate to lead the field through the opening quarters. If Saez can slow the pace down and get a breather on the backstretch, Chip Honcho has the grit to dig in and refuse to let rivals past in the final yards. His Risen Star Stakes betting interest remains high among those who follow the "Asmussen at Fair Grounds" angle.
The ultimate longshot in the 2026 field is Colt Forty Seven, trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by James Graham. At 20/1, this colt faces a massive step up in class after competing primarily in Indiana and smaller circuits. Desormeaux is known for being a giant-killer in Derby preps, but Colt Forty Seven will need to find at least 10 lengths of improvement to compete with the likes of Paladin. He typically runs as a deep closer, which could be problematic if the pace is slow. However, if a speed duel develops between Chip Honcho and others, Colt Forty Seven could pick up the pieces and land a piece of the purse at a massive price.
Todd Pletcher rarely ships a horse to New Orleans unless he believes he has a winner, and Courting fits that profile perfectly. A $5 million auction purchase, Courting has yet to fully live up to his price tag, but Pletcher is adding blinkers for the first time in this start. John Velazquez takes the mount on this son of Curlin, who is bred to run all day. His 6/1 odds reflect his immense potential despite some greenness in his previous starts. If the blinkers focus his energy, Courting could easily become the Risen Star Stakes odds sleeper that wins the race and becomes the new Derby favorite. Pletcher’s success rate with first-time blinkers in stakes races is a statistic that savvy bettors never ignore.
Brad Cox, another New Orleans mainstay, enters Quality Mischief at 10/1 odds with Florent Geroux in the irons. While he has struggled to find the winner's circle in his last two prep attempts, Cox has been training him aggressively in the mornings. Quality Mischief represents the elite Into Mischief bloodline, known for both speed and versatility. Geroux is a master at navigating the Fair Grounds oval, having won this race three times previously. If Quality Mischief can sit a "trip" behind the leaders and find a gap on the rail, he could provide a lucrative payout for those who bet on Risen Star Stakes exotic combinations.
Analyzing the pace of the 2026 Risen Star requires looking at the intentions of Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox. Chip Honcho will almost certainly gun for the lead from post 5, while Quality Mischief and Carson Street will likely track him closely. The real drama begins at the three-eighths pole when Tyler Gaffalione asks Paladin for his run. If Paladin is as good as his Remsen win suggests, he should be able to overpower the leaders by mid-stretch. However, the deep closers like Golden Tempo and the rejuvenated Courting will be flying on the outside. The long Fair Grounds stretch is notorious for breaking the hearts of front-runners who haven't fully developed their stamina.
To find success in Risen Star Stakes betting, one must balance the obvious class of Paladin with the value of the improving local horses. A smart strategy is to use Paladin on top of "Exacta" and "Trifecta" tickets, with Golden Tempo and Courting in the second and third positions. For those looking for a bigger score, a "Win" bet on Courting at 6/1 offers a great risk-to-reward ratio, especially with the equipment change and the Pletcher-Velazquez connection. Always check the final Risen Star Stakes odds before post time to see if any late money flows toward the longshots, which often indicates "inside" confidence from the backside.
The 2026 Risen Star Stakes is not just a horse race; it is the moment where pretenders are separated from legends under the bright lights of New Orleans. Whether you are backing the powerhouse Paladin or looking for a longshot miracle with Colt Forty Seven, the drama at Fair Grounds is guaranteed to be electric. This Saturday, millions of dollars and a trip to the Kentucky Derby are on the line, so grab your mint julep, finalize your tickets, and witness history in the making.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
