Gun Runner Stakes Betting, Odds, Analysis, Picks; Bet Untapable Stakes

Gun Runner Stakes Odds

Steve Asmussen trained three Horses of the Year – Curlin (2007, 2008), Rachel Alexandra (2009), and Gun Runner (2017). On Saturday, the Fair Grounds will run the fifth edition of the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner Stakes, an early prep for the May 2 Kentucky Derby (G1).

The ungraded, $100,000 race offers Derby qualifying points on a sliding scale of 10-5-3-2-1 to the first five finishers.

Those points won’t matter much, if at all, when the Derby field is assembled in late April, but the Gun Runner is a good place for Triple Crown hopefuls to start.

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Kentucky Derby Contenders in Gun Runner

In 2021, Asmussen won his first running with Epicenter, who ran second in the Derby and the Preakness Stakes (G1) before taking the Travers Stakes (G1) on the way to the 3-year-old championship.

Like most late-season races for 2-year-olds, there’s not much form to go on and no standout to tout confidently. The morning-line odds tell you that, because six of the eight runners are clustered between 7-2 lukewarm favorite Liberty National and 6-1 Mister Punch. Post time for the Gun Runner is 6:45 p.m. ET.

Asmussen trains Chip Honcho (9-2), who looks like the probable frontrunner in a race without much pace. The addition of blinkers and picking up speed by rider Paco Lopez are other factors in his favor. Expect Lopez to send him from post 2 and try to wire the field. The son of Connect ran well in his first two starts, finishing second despite early trouble in his 7-furlong debut before leading all the way in a one-turn mile in the mud at Churchill Downs.

Chip Honcho’s main rival appears to be Liberty National, trained by Kenny McPeek and ridden by Brian Hernandez, Jr., who teamed to upset the 2024 Derby with Mystik Dan. Liberty National and Chip Honcho faced each other in their debuts in October at Keeneland. Liberty National never got involved and plodded in sixth, 8¼ lengths behind runner-up Chip Honcho.

Liberty National, a son of hot sire Maxfield, rebounded dramatically in his next race, closing powerfully to win by 4¼ lengths. If speedy Ohio-bred Crown the Buckeye can put pace pressure on Chip Honcho, Liberty National could be ready to pounce.

McPeek likes his chances.

“I think Liberty National is sitting on a big race,” McPeek said. “I think the timing’s ideal. We’re just kind of firing away with him. He’s rocket-ship fast.”

Crown the Buckeye, trained by Mike Maker, is 2-for-3 at minor tracks on the Ohio circuit – Belterra Park, Thistledown, and Mahoning Valley. He dominated an Ohio-bred stakes last time out, going 1 1/16 miles after wiring a sprint by 12 lengths. If he handles the jump in class, he could be in the mix.

The Picks: 1 Chip Honcho, 2 Liberty National, 3 Crown the Buckeye

The Field for the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes, from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

  1. Mesquite (José Ortiz, Cherie DeVaux), 9-2
  2. Chip Honcho (Paco Lopez, Steve Asmussen), 9-2
  3. Liberty National (Brian Hernandez, Jr., Kenny McPeek), 7-2
  4. Quality Mischief (Marcelino Pedroza, Brad Cox), 5-1
  5. Crown the Buckeye (Jareth Loveberry, Mike, Maker), 5-1
  6. Arabia White (Axel Concepcion, Brad Cox), 8-1
  7. Very Connected (Colby Hernandez, Kenny McPeek), 9-2
  8. Mister Punch (Luis Saez, Brad Cox), 6-1
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$100,000 Untapable Stakes Odds

Also on Saturday’s card is the $100,000 Untapable Stakes, an early prep for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) offering qualifying points of 10-5-3-2-1 to the first five finishers.

Hit Parade, trained by Brad Cox, is the 5-2 slight favorite in a field of eight 2-year-old fillies going a mile and 70 yards. Miss Call, trained by Kenny McPeek, is the 3-1, second choice.

Hit Parade is 2-for-3, having won twice at Churchill Downs after a third-place finish in her career debut. One of her victories, on Oct. 31, was a half-length score over Miss Call.

Pashmina, 5-1 for trainer Rob Atras, comes into the race off an impressive 10 ¾-length first career win at the Fair Grounds on Oct. 18, going 1 1/16 miles. Ben Curtis has the call from post 7.

Post time for the Untapable in race 10 is 6:15 p.m. ET.

The Picks: 1 Miss Call, 2 Pashmina, 3 Hit Parade

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