Del Mar Futurity Odds: Bet the Baffert; Analysis, Picks

Sunday’s $300,000 Del Mar Futurity (G1) marks closing day feature of the prestigious summer racing season at Del Mar, but before heading back North to Santa Anita Park (and some to Los Alamitos), six juveniles will square off over seven furlongs in an attempt to claim the title as the West Coast’s leading 2-year-old heading toward the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) – and eventually the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Desert Gate. Benoit Photo.

Hall of Famer Bob Baffert owns this race, having saddled 18 winners since his first in 1996 (1997 Kentucky Derby winner Silver Charm) and won seven consecutive editions from that first victory through 2002 and the last four years in a row. This year he sends out four of the six set to head postward, exponentially increasing his chances of returning to the winner’s circle a 19th time.

Since it was first contested in 1948 some exceptionally good horses have reached the winner’s circle after capturing the Del Mar Futurity, but the event rose to national prominence in the late 1970s when Flying Paster won just a few months before his standout 3-year-old campaign, which included a runner-up finish to Spectacular Bid in the Kentucky Derby. Since then, some of the more recognizable Futurity winners include Kentucky Derby winners, champions and grade 1 heroes like Gato Del Sol, Saratoga Six, Tasso, Best Pal, Bertrando, the aforementioned Silver Charm, Officer, Declan’s Moon, Stevie Wonderboy, Lookin at Lucky, Nyquist, Bolt d’Oro, Game Winner and Gaming a year ago. 

Bill Shoemaker still owns the most wins as a jockey with six, his first in 1954 and his last in 1974. He retired from the saddle in 1990 and passed away in 2003, his record in this race still standing more than 20 years after his passing. 

Jay Em Ess’s champion Declan’s Moon still owns the stakes record, 21 years after he posted a final time of 1:21.29.

A Field Featuring Future Stars

Zedan Racing’s Brant is a the $3 million 2-year-old in training who broke his maiden at first ask in July, producing some huge speed and class figures, including speed numbers eons better than any other juvenile this year. He’s been working strongly and consistently since that eye-popping debut over the track since, and the Gun Runner colt is absolutely bred to love the extra distance, though eventually he’ll be more suited to two turns. His off-the-pace running style in an event with a lot of speed makes him extra dangerous and he’ll be bet heavily, but he’s on paper the most likely candidate for a win. Eclipse Award winner Flavien Prat is back aboard after a successful summer in Saratoga.

Undefeated Desert Gate is back after winning the Best Pal Stakes (G2) by a widening 8 ¾ lengths last out. The Three Amigos colorbearer (Pegram, Watson and Weitman) has had a couple of impressive works since, including a bullet six furlongs in 1:12.60 on Sunday, so fitness for the extra distance shouldn’t be a huge issue. He will likely either be part of a hot early pace or sit behind it and his best makes him dangerous for a win under jockey Juan Hernandez. 

Balboa was third behind Brant in his first start and came back to win a nice maiden event by a wideneing 7 ¾ lengths in a hand ride three weeks ago. He has some powerful connections (SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madakat Racing, et al) and could benefit here from his extra experience. The $875,000 son of Not This Time is not a huge morning glory compared to many of his stablemats, but his breezes are strong and workmanlike. He is speedy and will surely be part of the early pace jockey Kazushi Kimura hoping his speed will carry him to the wire in front.

Litmus Test, an $875,000 yearling also owned by SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madakat Racing, et al. won impressively first time out 2 ½ weeks ago earning some impressive debut numbers suggesting this jump into stakes company is warranted. He’s got a stalker running style that benefits him here and the Nyquist colt certainly will like the extra 1 ½ furlongs in distance. Tyler Gaffalione is in town from his East Coast base for the mount, a rare Baffert-Gaffalione combo.

Trainer Doug O’Neill sends out the other two runners in here – the maidens Brigante and Civil Liberty. Stranger things have happened and O’Neill has won many of the world’s biggest races so it’s hard to question intent, but both of these runners seem to be just a cut below Baffert’s quartet.

The Del Mar Futurity is the afternoon’s 4th race with a post time of 3:00 p.m. PT.

It’s hard to bet against Baffert here, so we just won’t. He’s sure to earn his 19th victory and likely pull down the superfecta, not to mention the exacta and trifecta.

The picks: 1 Brant 2 Desert Gate 3 Balboa

The field for the $300,000 Del Mar Futurity, from the rail out, with jockeytrainer:

1 Brigante (Hector Barrios, Doug O’Neill)
2 Brant (Flavien Prat, Bob Baffert)
3 Balboa (Kazushi Kimura, Bob Baffert)
4 Civil Liberty (Antonio Fresu, Doug O’Nell)
5 Desert Gate (Juan Hernandez, Bob Baffert)
6 Litmus Test (Tyler Gaffalione, Bob Baffert)

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