Bet the Pennsylvania Derby, Cotillion Stakes: Analysis, Live Longshot Picks
A breakthrough Grade 1 victory is in the cards for all 10 horses entered in the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (G1) on Saturday at Parx, the racetrack just outside Philadelphia.
Some familiar names from the Triple Crown trail, including Baeza and Gosger, are among the top betting choices in the race for 3-year-old that comes six weeks before the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) on Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
The 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby is the main attraction in racing on Saturday, a day that also includes the co-featured $1 million Cotillion Stakes (G1) for 3-year-old fillies as well as $200,000 Princess Rooney Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida.
PENNSYLVANIA DERBY ODDS: Baeza, Goal Oriented, Gosger top field
Baeza, the 2-1 morning-line favorite for trainer John Shirreffs, finished second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), third in the Kentucky Derby (G1), third in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and second in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2). He was beaten in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) by Journalism, who went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and the Haskell Stakes (G1), and by Sovereignty in the Derby, Belmont and Jim Dandy (Journalism was second in the Derby and Belmont).
Since Sovereignty and Journalism are not running, Baeza is the legitimate favorite, and is likely to finish in the top 3 no matter how the race unfolds as the colt is most comfortable running off the pace.
“This would be a great race to win,” Shirreffs said. “Grade 1. A million dollars. There is a lot on the line.”
However, there’s the likes of Gosger (4-1), Goal Oriented (5-2) and Magnitude (6-1).
Gosger looked like the Preakness winner back on May 17, but Journalism bulled his way between horses, ran down Gosger in deep stretch and beat the Brendan Walsh-trained colt by a half-length. A similar race scenario occurred two months later in the Haskell at Monmouth Park, with Journalism prevailing by the same margin.
Walsh is hoping for that breakthrough win.
“At this stage I’d say he probably deserves to get one,” the trainer said. “He’s run two really, really good races. He’s done nothing wrong since he started. He’s only run what, five times now, and hasn’t been worse than second. This race sets up good for him. Plenty of speed in there. It looks like a similar setup to the Haskell.”
Goal Oriented, fourth in the Preakness and third in the Haskell, is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, seeking a fifth Pennsylvania Derby win. Top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., who recently moved his tack to Kentucky from New York, will be at Parx to ride Goal Oriented.
Magnitude is a question. He won the Risen Star Stakes (G2), a top Derby prep, but was sidelined for the Triple Crown races with an injured. He returned with a nearly 10-length win in the Iowa Derby but was never in the picture in the Travers Stakes (G1), finished third behind Sovereignty and Brack Buster, nearly 21 lengths back.
Is Mo Plex a Legitimate Longshot?
While these top four seem like the best bets, if you’re looking for a longshot, consider New York-bred Mo Plex at 12-1. The colt trained by Jeremiah Englehart finished in the top 3 in his first five starts, including wins in the Ohio Derby (G3) and the Bay Shore Stakes before stumbling at the start of the Jim Dandy and finishing fourth.
“The only thing that makes him a New York-bred is that there is a NY after his name,” Englehart said. “This race is obviously going to be a tough test, but he has had plenty of time to come into this race the right way.”
Joe Ramos, who rode Mo Plex for the first time in the Ohio Derby, has the call on Saturday.
COTILLION STAKES ODDS: Will Scottish Lassie be the favorite
Good Cheer looks to ger her Grade 1 groove back in the 1 1/16-mile Cotillion, where for the first time in her career she might not be the favorite.
Trained by Brad Cox, Good Cheer is 5-2 on the morning line in a field of eight, with Scottish Lassie the 2-1 top choice. That could change by the time the race goes off.
Good Cheer won her first seven races, including the Kentucky Oaks, her first Grade 1 win after three consecutive Grade 2 victories in the Golden Rod, the Rachel Alexandra and the Fair Grounds Oaks. In her last two starts, though, the filly finished a surprising fifth in the Acorn Stakes (G1) and a solid second to Nitrogen in the Alabama Stakes (G1).
“For us, right now, we’re in the mix, we’re not in the lead,” Cox said in discussing the top 3-year-old fillies. “If we could get another victory, a Grade 1 on the dirt, it would definitely put us back toward the top ... We would have to see how things go, but I think it would get us back where we need to be and we give us some confidence moving forward to the Breeders’ Cup.”
The Cotillion also includes La Cara (7-2), winner of the Acorn and fourth in the Alabama, as well as Scottish Lassie, third in the Acorn before a dazzling 15 ½-length romp on the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1).
Trainer Jorge Abreu, who trains Scottish Lassie, is a bit anxious but believes his filly will show up.
Scottish Lassie. Parx Photo.
“There’s a lot of pressure and a lot of nerves,” Abreu said. “Every time I try this filly in a Grade 1, she shows up. Nothing bothers her.”
As for La Cara, trainer Mark Casse expects a top effort after the filly seemed out of sorts in running a dull fourth in the Alabama on Aug. 16 at Saratoga.
“She trained good going into the Alabama, but not great. That was the bad news,’’ Casse said of La Cara, who missed a scheduled start in the Coaching Club American Oaks on July 19 due to a barn quarantine.
“The good news is that the light is back on. She is training extremely well. She is going to be a lot better filly for (the Cotillion) than she was for the Alabama.”
Looking For a Longshot? Try Dry Powder at 10-1
Never out of the top 3 in five career starts, the Gun Runner filly may just be starting to pay off after being purchased for $525,000 and not running as a 2-year-old.
On Aug. 19, Dry Powder won the listed Cathryn Sophia Stakes at Parx as a tune up for the Cotillion, improving to 5-2-2-1.
“She finally got ridden the way I wanted her to in the Cathryn Sophia,” Summers said of the filly’s stalking style that led to a 4 ¼-length win with Luis Saez aboard for the first time. “We came to that race with the Cotillion in mind. This was the race we targeted all year. This was the race we circled.
“I thought with her running style and the way that she is that she would love Parx and the way that the track plays. Obviously, the water is much deeper than it was last time, but I thought she was visually impressive. She needs to take another step forward, but she came out of that last race well and had two really good works by design. She’s happy going into this race.”
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