Bet on the Robert J. Frankel Stakes: Analysis, Picks

Bet on Robert J Frankel Stakes

The Robert J. Frankel Stakes (G3), postponed on New Year’s Eve at Santa Anita due to rain now set for Thursday, traces its origins to its inauguration as the San Gorgonio Handicap in 1968.

It was initially run as a sprint over approximately 6 1/2 furlongs on the downhill turf course, and a horse named Tumble Wind, trained by the legend Charlie Whittingham, was the first winner.

The race lasted as a downhill sprint for exactly one year and shifted in 1969 to a 1 1/8-mile turf feature as the San Gorgonio Claiming Stakes, then was not held in 1970.

By 1976, it reverted to the San Gorgonio Handicap and became a handicap exclusively for fillies and mares, highlighted that year by the Chilean-bred Tizna’s narrow win while carrying a record 132 pounds as the favorite, a number that still stands as the highest impost carried by a female in Santa Anita history.

Scheduling quirks led to the race being run twice in 1977 (January and December) and skipped in 1978, before it stabilized as an annual January fixture until moving to late December in recent decades.

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The San Gorgonio earned Grade 3 classification in 1983 and was elevated to Grade 2 in 1985, though it has occasionally been taken off the turf due to weather, including a dirt running in 2016 that resulted in a temporary loss of graded status. In 2010, following the passing of Hall of Fame trainer Robert J. Frankel, who saddled a record eight winners of the race – 1973, Extra Hand; 1996, Wandesta; 1997, Sixieme Sens; 1999, See You Soon; 2001, Uncharted Haven); 2003, Tates Creek; 2004, Megahertz; and 2007, Citronnade – Santa Anita renamed it the Robert J. Frankel Stakes to honor his legacy. It was downgraded to Grade 3 in 2012 and currently carries a $100,000 purse.

Over its history, the race has featured numerous standout performers, including Paseana in 1992, the Argentine-bred Eclipse Award-winning older female who triumphed under trainer Ron McAnally; Wait a While in 2008, who achieved the event’s highest Equibase Speed Figure of 121 under Todd Pletcher; and Tout Charmant in 2002, a sentimental favorite ridden by Chris McCarron in one of his final major wins in his Hall of Fame career.

Other notable winners include Track Robbery (1982), the older female champion that year; Queens Court Queen (1995), who upset the field off the turf; and more recent stars like Mucho Unusual (2020), Queen Goddess (2022), Angel Nadeshiko (2023) and Mrs. Astor (2024), who won by a nose under Frankie Dettori for trainer Jonathan Thomas, a year ago.

Frankel Stakes Odds: Public Assembly 9-5 favorite in field of eight

This will be the first graded stakes race of the year in California, and it’s race 7 on the card.

This year’s renewal, which has been carded as the afternoon’s seventh race, shapes up as an intriguing contest with a field of eight following a redraw. There are three new entries, while two original starters were not re-entered, increasing betting options and angles for everyone.

Public Assembly (9-5)

Public Assembly is trained by Phil D’Amato with Umberto Rispoli in the saddle, leaving from gate 1. The More Than Ready mare boasts a strong runner-up finish at two furlongs farther in her last outing, the Red Carpet Stakes (G3) at Del Mar. The rail isn’t a terrible coming out of the turf chute at Santa Anita, though she’ll need to overcome traffic when potentially getting buried along the inside if she makes it to her preferred spot stalking the pace. She won the Royal Heroine Stakes (G3) last spring at a furlong shorter here, so she definitely has an affinity for the course. She has some strong speed and late pace figures, which can only help her chances, and she has a string of recent near-misses, which suggest she’s peaking into top form.

Paradise Lake (2-1)

Paradise Lake, for trainer Peter Eurton and jockey Juan Hernandez, will break from post 5 and returns off a third-place finish in the Red Carpet. The Uncle Mo mare owns three turf wins at Santa Anita already, including at this distance in allowance company, and she could pose the primary challenge if she replicates her consistent closing kick on what her connections hope will be firm ground. This race is definitely a step up in class, but she’s earned her shot here.

Willa T (8-1)

Willa T enters on a hot streak, having won her last three races, all on turf at one mile. She’s shown marked improvement since dropping into claiming ranks in mid-2025, graduating from maiden claimers and progressing through allowance and starter optional claiming levels in her most recent start. Her speed figures have climbed steadily, indicating she’s peaking at the right time. The Oscar Performance mare was supplemented into this race, which suggests confidence from the barn despite the class jump. She’s versatile, too, but has been forwardly placed lately, and since this field lacks obvious pace except for one confirmed frontrunning rival, she’ll likely be the pacesetter or dueling early, which could play to her advantage. Tim Yakteen is the trainer, with Hector Barrios aboard.

Watchtower (9-2)

Watchtower, trained by Richard Baltas with Mirco Demuro up from post 8, brings in a win over the course at this distance, suggesting she could rebound if the turf plays to her advantage, with stalking tendencies. She was a DNF in the Rodeo Drive in October, but the saddle slipped and forced her to be pulled up. Though she’ll have to improve on her dull sixth in the Swingtime Stakes in her most recent start, she is capable of being part of the exotics if not pulling an upset.

Hannah Buckle (10-1)

Ireland-bred Hannah Buckle has shown steady improvement since being imported to the U.S. in 2024, breaking her maiden on her second stateside try and stepping up to allowance company, where, after a couple of near-misses, she earned her first level win over the summer. She’s raced exclusively on turf at Del Mar and Santa Anita, with distances ranging from 6 furlongs to a mile, and she’s certainly bred for the 9 furlongs here. She has no graded stakes experience but is in good hands with trainer Leonard Powell and jockey Armando Ayuso.

Starry Night (15-1)

Starry Night has exclusively raced on turf, showing significant improvement after switching barns from Kevin Attard in Canada to Jonathan Thomas while on the East Coast. Her maiden score came at Colonial Downs wearing a $40,000 price tag. It was a sneaky move, nobody haltered here, and she progressed to capture a starter allowance impressively last out three months ago. Both wins came at this distance, and her speed figures have improved steadily, indicating she’s peaking at the right time. Justify progeny often excel at classic distances and on the turf, and her dam’s side (a mare by Discreet Cat influence) adds stamina for turf routes. This is a major step up, though.

Son Of Hill (12-1)

The D’Amato barn doubles up with Sun Of Hill, piloted by Kazushi Kimura from post 6. Her form and Brazilian breeding hint at untapped potential on U.S. turf, but she hasn’t shown it yet in 11 North American starts, so she’ll need improvement to factor prominently.

Ima Joker (15-1)

The outsider Ima Joker, for trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Emisael Jaramillo, breaks from post 3 and owns two wins on the Santa Anita turf (one was on the downhill), but her speed figures overall suggest she might struggle against this caliber.

Overall, the race—even redrawn with new shooters—appears to hinge on pace dynamics, with Public Assembly and Paradise Lake likely dueling for favoritism in a field where course specialists hold a clear edge.

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The Picks: 1 Public Assembly, 2 Paradise Lake, 3 Willa T

The Field for the $100,000 Robert J. Frankel Stakes (G3), with jockey, trainer, odds:

  1. Public Assembly (Umberto Rispoli, Phil D’Amato), 9-5
  2. Willa T (Hector Barrios, Tim Yakteen), 8-1
  3. Ima Joker (Emisael Jaramillo, Doug O’Neill), 15-1
  4. Hannah Buckle (Armando Ayuso, Leonard Powell) 10-1
  5. Paradise Lake (Juan Hernandez, Peter Eurton), 2-1
  6. Sun Of Hill (Kazushi Kimura, Phil D’Amato), 12-1
  7. Starry Night (Ricardo Gonzalez, Jonathan Thomas), 15-1
  8. Watchtower (Mirco Dimuro, Richard Baltas), 9-2
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