As usual, storylines for a Triple Crown race are plentiful and the $2 million Belmont Stakes (G1) is no exception, even without a chance at racing immortality on the line.
Sovereignty won the Kentucky Derby (G1), the first leg of the Triple Crown, then skipped the second leg, the Preakness Stakes (G1), and Derby runner-up Journalism won it.
On Saturday, we reach the end of the Triple Crown season in the 157th edition of the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course – and it’s looking like a rainy rematch five weeks after Sovereignty outdueled Journalism over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs on May 3.
Rain and thunderstorms began Friday, and the forecast for Saturday is the same but ending minutes before the Belmont Stakes post time of 7:04 p.m. ET. The Belmont will be broadcast by FOX Sports.
Belmont Stakes betting will need some fine-tuning as horses running well on a dry or fast track may not run so well over a muddy or wet surface.
This could be more than just a two-horse race in a field of eight 3-year-olds going 1 ¼ miles, not the traditional 1 ½ miles as Belmont Park is being rebuilt and the Spa’s track configuration does not work for the longer distance.
While the Preakness and Derby winners are the favorites (Journalism, 8-5; Sovereignty 2-1), Baeza (4-1) is a threat after finishing strongly for third in the Derby, just behind Journalism, He, too, obviously liked the wet track.
There’s also trainer Bob Baffert’s Rodriguez (6-1), who missed the Derby and the Preakness with a foot issue, and likely will try for the lead and go gate-to-wire. No matter what, it’s always tough to bet against a Hall of Famer – with Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith aboard, no less – who has won a record 17 Triple Crown races (six Derbys, eight Preakness, three Belmonts), including two Triple Crowns (American Pharoah, 2015; Justify, 2018).
Perhaps overlooked is Hill Road, who won the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct for trainer Chad Brown. For those who bet horse racing, he may be worth a wager at 10-1.
Brash New York billionaire Mike Repole is in the mix, too, sending out previously all-but-unknown Uncaged (30-1) to run in his first stakes race. Trained by four-time Belmont Stakes winner Todd Pletcher, Uncaged doesn’t seem to have the credentials to be a serious contender. However, he’s won twice, both over muddy tracks, including his career debut at Saratoga.
Last week, when it looked like the field would be six horses, Repole posted on X: “Could be a 6 horse field. 5 vet scratches away from winning the Belmont Stakes!!!!! Should we run Uncaged in the Belmont Stakes???”
Pletcher also sends out Crudo (15-1), co-owned by celebrity chef Bobby Flay. This colt won the Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico on the Preakness undercard and is making just his fourth start.
Finally, there’s Heart of Honor (30-1), an England-bred who finished sixth in the Preakness after coming over from his home base in Dubai, where he ran second to Admire Daytona, who ran in the Derby and finished last of 19.
Sovereignty, seeking to pull off a Derby-Belmont double for the first time since Thunder Gulch in 1995, is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott.
“He's improved -- as many of these horses have,’’ Mott said this week. “This entire group, if you look at their form and the way they've developed over the course of this year, I think they've made steady progress. It should be an interesting race on Saturday.”
While Sovereignty comes into the Belmont off a five-week break in racing, Journalism comes in off a three-week break after just a two-week break between the Derby and Preakness. Will that make a difference?
“Sometimes, you don't know how much has been taken out of them until they're actually in the running,’’ Journalism’s trainer Michael McCarthy said. “But he seems like he is full of vigor, eating, doing great -- basically all the cliches that we say about horses. It's right there, right in front of us, so I'm excited to lead him over on Saturday."
The Belmont Stakes is the showcase event at the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival that features 27 stakes races worth $11,275,000 over five days, June 4-8.
Among other Grade 1 stakes on Saturday’s 14-race Belmont blockbuster card:
Fierceness, the 2023 2-year-old champion and winner of the Alysheba Stakes (G2) on May 2, is the even-money favorite in a five-horse field. Top challengers are White Abarrio, the 2023 BC Classic winner and 2-for-2 this year, the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and the Ghostzapper Stakes (G3); Just a Touch (winner of his last two for trainer Brad Cox); and Raging Torrent (Godolphin Mile winner).
The winner earns an automatic berth to the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) in November as part of the “Win and You’re In’’ series.
$500,000 Jaipur Stakes (post time 4:08 p.m., race 9)
Think Big tops the field of 11 for this 5 ½-furlong sprint, a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In’’ race to the BC Turf Sprint (G1).
$500,000 Woody Stephens Stakes (post time 5:28 p.m., race 11)
Chancer McPatrick is the 4-1 favorite Baffert’s Citizen Bull, the 2024 2-year-old champion who finished 15th in the Kentucky Derby after breaking from the rail. Also running is Neoequos, 13th in the Derby, and Madaket Road, second in the Pat Day Mile (G2).
$1 million Manhattan Stakes (post time 6:09 p.m., race 12)
A field of 11 goes 1 3/16 miles on the turf, with Spirit of St Louis the slight 5-2 favorite over 3-1 Far Bridge, one of two entries for trainer Miguel Clement, the son of renowned trainer Christophe Clement, who recently passed away. Miguel Clement also saddles 9-2 Deterministic and 12-1 Carson’s Run.
Spirit of St Louis won the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs on May 3 for trainer Chad Brown.
