Belmont Stakes Contender Profile, Odds: Rodriguez

In the days leading up to the 157th running of the $2 million Belmont Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course, the team at usracing.com is publishing profiles of the 3-year-olds in the field. Profiles will be updated with post positions and track odds following the June 2 draw. 

RODRIGUEZ

The buzz phrase is "Fresh horses win the Belmont." In recent years that's been true, but this is really pushing it. Front-running Rodriguez hasn't run since he dominated a weak field in Aqueduct's Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) on April 5. So, he'll have nine weeks off, four or five more than most Belmont winners have had in this century. Trainer Bob Baffert is masterful off layoffs, but history is against him.

Baffert scratched Rodriguez from the Kentucky Derby (G1) because of a minor foot bruise. The plan was to run him two weeks later in the Preakness Stakes (G1), but Baffert had second thoughts, saying he “didn't have enough time’’ to prepare him properly.

The son of 2020 Horse of the Year Authentic has been training well at Baffert's base in Southern California, so it looks as if Rodriguez's vacation will end June 7 in the 1 1/4-mile Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. A 7-furlong workout in 1:24.80 on May 23 at Santa Anita convinced Baffert that he's ready to return.

“Looked good, so we'll see how he comes out of the work,” Baffert told drf.com. “But from what I saw today, he's definitely coming to the Belmont unless something drastically changes.”

Rodriguez is one-dimensional, and on paper, he's the main speed in the race. If three-time Belmont Stakes winner Mike Smith can set moderate to slow fractions, he should be in front until Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza come after him, leaving the far turn and overtaking him.

Belmont Stakes Betting Advice

Rodriguez never has run farther than 1 1/8 miles and never beat horses as talented as Sovereignty, Journalism or Baeza. Toss this likely pace casualty.

BONUS Work of the Day from @santaanitapark— Rodriguez worked 7 Furlongs in 1:24.80 on May 23rd, 2025, for trainer Bob Baffert. pic.twitter.com/Zxsq6YPL77

— 1/ST TV (@Watch1ST) May 23, 2025

Contender Information Card

• Post position: 3
• Odds: 6-1
• Jockey: Mike Smith
• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Owners: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan  
• Career record: 4-2-1-1
• Career earnings: $512,200
• Last race: Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), April 5, 1st
• Top Equibase speed figure: 111
• Pedigree: Authentic-Cayala, by Cherokee Run
• Color: Dark bay
• Running style: Frontrunner
• Notes: Baffert owns the Preakness (record eight wins) and the Derby (record-tying six victories) but hasn't dominated the Belmont Stakes. He's won it three times, with Point Given (2001) and Triple Crown heroes American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) ... Smith, a 59-year-old Hall of Famer, won on Justify, Drosselmeyer (2010) and Palace Malice (2013) ... “Going in the wrong direction”: The 1921 Belmont was the first to be run counterclockwise.

US Racing Team

The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.