With the Kentucky Derby (G1) five weeks away, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is hoping for a chance to win a record-setting seventh Run for the Roses.
On Saturday, the California-based Baffert sends out Litmus Test in a field of eight in the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1), a Kentucky Derby prep he’s won a record-tying five times – most significantly in 2015 with American Pharoah, who went on to win the Triple Crown.
Baffert’s other Arkansas Derby winners are Bodemeister in 2012, Charlatan and Nadal (2020, split divisions), and Muth in 2024. Bodemeister ran second in the Derby; the other three did not run.
Baffert’s other Derby prospect this year is Potente, winner of the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and set to run in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 4.
Baffert is taking a different approach for the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby, a race in which Renegade is the 3-2 favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher. After the son of Nyquist finished third in the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) after leading most of the race, Baffert decided to leave the horse at Oaklawn Park rather than have him return to California and be shipped back four weeks later.
In addition, local Oaklawn Park jockey Francisco Arrieta will be aboard Litmus Test (5-1) rather than Flavien Prat, and Baffert left the training to Oaklawn-based Dan Ward. Litmus Test worked twice at Oaklawn with Arrieta aboard for a 4-furlong breeze in 48.80 on March 14, followed by a 4-furlong work in 48.40 on March 21. Also, Litmus Test will race without blinkers for the first time,
“I didn’t want to bring him all the way back here and then go back again,” Baffert said. “He’s a lighter made kind of horse, and so I thought the best chance would have been for him to stay there and acclimate a little bit to that track. He’s going to have to move up. He’s got to move up. He’s got to run better than he did last time. His best chance to win was to stay there.”
Baffert said Arrieta will be riding for him for the first time. “Hear a lot of good things about him, and he knows the track,” Baffert said. “He worked the horse for me, and that’s why I thought I would use him. Last time, Prat said he had the 1 hole, and so it sort of forced his hand. He needs a target to run at. That (going to the lead) is not his style.”
Litmus Test, well-seasoned after three Grade 1 starts as a 2-year-old – fourth in the Del Mar Futurity, third in the Breeders’ Futurity, and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile -- has 34 Kentucky Derby qualifying points but will need to finish in the top 3 (maybe top 4) to claim a berth in the field.
The Arkansas Derby awards 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five finishers.
Other than Silent Tactic, the 5-2 second choice, who has 50 Derby points and enough to make a Derby field limited to 20 starters, the rest of Saturday’s field is in a situation similar to Litmus Test.
Renegade, winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), comes into the race with 25 points (19th on the Derby leaderboard); Blackout Time (6-1) has 15 points (31st); Redland Rebels (15-1) has 10 points (41st); Bricklin (20-1) has 6 points and Exosome (20-1) and Taptastic (20-1) have 0 points. In the past, 40 points could be enough to make the Derby field.
Renegade, a son of top sire Into Mischief, hasn’t run since winning the Sam F. Davis on Feb. 7. He closed his 2-year-old season with a runner-up finish in the Remsen Stakes (G2) on Dec. 6.
Silent Tactic, trained by Hall of Famer Mark Casse, ran second in the Smarty Jones Stakes, won the Southwest Stakes (G3), and ran second in the Rebel, all at Oaklawn Park.
Redlands Rebel, who ran fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), is cross-entered in Saturday’s Florida Derby. The Florida-bred gelding is a front-runner but seems outclassed wherever he runs.
The stalkers are plentiful, led by Litmus Test, who breaks from the outside post 9. Baffert usually finds the right spot for his Derby prospects, and there’s a good chance Litmus Test will come through.
One last chance for Blackout Time, who should be stalking the pace. He ran fourth in the Rebel as he was unable to rally in the stretch.
Another stalker is Taptastic, who makes just his second career start after winning in his debut three weeks ago at Oaklawn. A wildcard entry from Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.
Bricklin is set to run in this one, but will be a longshot. Watch for him to press the pace, but he is up against a tough field.
Expect Silent Tactic to be charging for the lead in his typical closing fashion. He just missed in the Rebel, narrowly losing to Class President.
Renegade could stalk the pace or settle in before closing with a rush as Pletcher looks for yet another Derby starter. He trains two top Derby contenders in Nearly (who needs a top 3 finish in the Florida Derby to qualify for the Run for the Roses) and Class President.
Exosome won an allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn last out by stalking the pace, but this race seems above and beyond even a strong effort.
| # | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | M/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redland Rebels | K J Asmussen | P L Biancone | 15/1 |
| 2 | Silent Tactic | C A Torres | M E Casse | 5/2 |
| 3 | Blackout Time | B J Hernandez, Jr. | K G McPeek | 6/1 |
| 4 | Bricklin | J A Torres | R Brisset | 20/1 |
| 5 | Taptastic | E Asmussen | S M Asmussen | 20/1 |
| 6 | Renegade | I Ortiz, Jr. | T A Pletcher | 3/2 |
| 7 | Napoleon Solo | K Carmouche | C Summers | SCR |
| 8 | Exosome | A Beschizza | K Danner | 20/1 |
| 9 | Litmus Test | F Arrieta | B Baffert | 5/1 |
Last Updated on 03/27/2026
Richard Rosenblatt is an award-winning journalist and former Associated Press Horse Racing Editor. Currently, he serves as the news editor at US Racing, overseeing exclusive content from contributors worldwide.
