The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival is a treat and a challenge for horseplayers, with 17 graded stakes spread over four days at Saratoga. Next year, it's back to the recreated Belmont Park for this extravaganza that blends quality and quantity.
Just as it did the past two years, it will draw many of North America's top horses to compete for purses exceeding $9.5 million. As an appetizer, Wednesday's card features six $200,000 stakes for New York-breds and a steeplechase, and the 17-course banquet begins the next day.
I took a look at the festival's winners in 2024 and 2025, and the following chart shows their odds and how they got there first. Did lone speed dominate? Was stalking the best path to the winner's circle? And how did the closers do?
Early speed is the universal track bias, and since the Eighties, it's been dominant at the Spa, particularly on the main track. Saratoga's two turf courses have been kinder to come-from-behind horses. Here's a winner's book of 30 graded stakes run at the festival in 2024 and 2025, followed by a breakdown of which running styles were favored and how the favorites did. Study it. Maybe it will provide money-making insights.
| 2026 Belmont Stakes Fair Odds | ||
| Official post positions, contenders and odds will be published following the post-position draw on Monday, June 1, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. ET. | ||
| PP | Horse / Trainer | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|
| TBD | RenegadeTBD · T. Pletcher | 9/5 |
| TBD | Golden TempoTBD · C. DeVaux | 9/2 |
| TBD | Chief WallabeeTBD · W. Mott | 5/1 |
| TBD | Vitruvian ManTBD · D. O'Neill | 20/1 |
| TBD | CommandmentTBD · B. Cox | 5/1 |
| TBD | PowershiftTBD · T. Pletcher | 20/1 |
| TBD | Emerging MarketTBD · C. Brown | 7/1 |
| TBD | Growth EquityTBD · C. Brown | 14/1 |
| TBD | OcelliTBD · W. Beckman | 20/1 |
| TBD | OttinhoTBD · C. Brown | 25/1 |
Last Updated on 05/29/2026
So, exactly what happened?
On the dirt, predictably, if you weren't on or near the lead, you were in trouble. Of the 14 main-track winners, four led all the way, and eight stalkers won. Only two closers finished first, and one of them was Horse of the Year Sovereignty in the Belmont.
Conclusion: Think twice before betting on a dirt horse that comes from behind.
In the 16 turf races, no running style had an edge. Six stalkers won, along with five frontrunners and five closers.
Conclusion: Depending on pace flow and racing luck, the winner can lead throughout, stalk, or surge from the back of the pack.
As for prices, longshot players enjoyed themselves. Only four odds-on horses won, while 13 out of 30 winners returned $12 or more -- one at 5-1, two at 6-1, two at 7-1, two at 8-1, two at 9-1, two at 10-1, one at 17-1 (Dornoch in the 2024 Belmont), and one at 24-1.
Conclusion: Don't be shy about challenging the chalk. If you like a price horse, take a shot.
And good luck. You can't win without it.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
