Commandment and Nearly, ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the latest Kentucky Derby Top 10, square off in the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
Interestingly, neither is the favorite in this key prep, awarding 100-50-25-15-10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers. That role goes to Chief Wallabee, the 2-1 favorite for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott and a rising Derby prospect needing a top 3 finish to pick up enough points to run for the Roses on May 2.
Commandment, the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1) winner for trainer Chad Brown, has 50 Derby qualifying points, likely enough to make the field limited to 20 starters. Nearly, the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) winner trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, has 20 Derby points and needs a top 3 finish to get into the field on the first Saturday in May.
In a similar scenario, Pletcher-trainer Renegade is the 3-2 favorite over No. 5-ranked Silent Tactic in Saturday’s $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park, a race that also awards 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five finishers.
Needless to say, the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby may be the most pivotal preps on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Five of our Top 10 Derby contenders – three in the Florida Derby and two in the Arkansas Derby – are entered, meaning huge changes in next week’s rankings.
While the top 5 remain the same as the past few weeks – Commandment, Paladin, Nearly, Class President, and Silent Tactic – Chief Wallabee moves in for the first time at No. 8, while Saturday’s results move Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Emerging Market to No. 9 and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Fulleffort to No. 10.
Golden Tempo, third in the Louisiana Derby, Potente, winner of the San Felipe Stakes (G2) for six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, and The Puma, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), drop out of the Top 10.
The Puma races again in Saturday’s Florida Derby; Potente is scheduled to run in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 4.
From 1953-2025, the Florida Derby has produced 26 Kentucky Derby winners, 15 of them winning both races. Last year, Sovereignty finished second in the Florida Derby, but went on to win the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont Stakes (G1), the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2), and the Travers Stakes (G1) and was voted Horse of the Year.
The last horse to win both races was Always Dreaming, trained by Todd Pletcher, in 2017. Maximum Security finished first in both races in 2019 but was disqualified for interference in the Kentucky Derby.
Rated a top contender following his close second to Commandment in the Fountain of Youth in just his second career start, Chief Wallabee makes his first appearance in our Top 10.
Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who trains Sovereignty, has been high on his lightly raced colt, and a solid showing Saturday could send him to the Derby for a chance to make it two in a row.
Potente, who won the San Felipe Stakes, drops out of the rankings, leaving the Hall of Fame trainer without a Top 10 horse for the first time this season.
Don’t count him out, though, since he has several other contenders geared up for the final preps, including Litmus Test in the Arkansas Derby.
A win in Florida Derby against fellow top-contenders would likely send him to Churchill Downs as the betting favorite ... Worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.80 seconds on March 21 at Payson Park ... Winner of three in a row since debut fourth at Keeneland in October ... Owner: Wathnan Racing ... Purchased for $500,000 at 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale ... Breeding: Into Mischief-Sippican Harbor, by Orb ... Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 28 ... No. 11 on Derby points leaderboard (50) ... Derby future wager odds (pool 5): 12-1
Worked 4 furlongs in 49.16 at Palm Beach Downs on March 21, his sixth breeze since Holy Bull win on Jan. 31 ... May be a Derby top contender now, but must have a top 3 finish Saturday to make Derby field ... Owner: Donald Little’s Centennial Farm ... Purchased for $350,000 at 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale ... Breeding: Not This Time-IB Prospecting, by Mineshaft ... Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 28 ... No. 24 on Derby points leaderboard (20). Derby future wager odds: 12-1
Worked 4 furlongs in 49.20 seconds at Payson Park on March 21, his fourth breeze since winning Risen Star on Feb. 14 ... Sports 3-0 record – also won the Remsen Stakes at Big A on Dec. 6 ... Owners: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, Brook Smith, Summer Wind Equine ... Pedigree: Gun Runner-Secret Sigh, by Tapit ... Purchased for $1.9 million at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale 2024 ... Next start: Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland, April 4 ... No. 4 on Derby points leaderboard (60). Derby future wager odds: 8-1
Rebel winner’s next start still unknown, but colt has enough points to get into Derby without a final prep ... Worked 4 furlongs in 50.05 at Palm Beach Downs on March 20 ... Owners: WinStar Farm, First Go Racing., CHC (China Horse Club) ... Pedigree: Uncle Mo-Top Quality, by Quality Road ... Next start: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct/Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland, April 3 ... No. 9 on Derby points leaderboard (50) ... Derby future wager odds: 28-1
Rebel runner-up worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.60 at Oaklawn Park on March 19 ... Strong closer with enough points to make Derby field ... Owner: John Oxley ... Pedigree: Tacitus-Magical Sign, by Gun Runner ... Purchased for $500,000 at Ocala Breeders’ Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training 2025 ... Next start: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park, March 28 ... No. 8 on Derby points leaderboard (50). Derby future wager odds: 17-1
Headed to Louisville after strong four-length win in Virginia Derby ... Has three wins in five starts for Mott, son of Bill Mott, the Hall of Famer and trainer of 2025 Derby winner and Horse of the Year Sovereignty ... Owner: Pin Oak Stud ... Purchased for $75,000 at 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale ... Next start: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 2 ... No. 5 on Derby points leaderboard (60) ... Derby future wager odds: 16-1.
He’s the 3-2 morning-line favorite in the Arkansas Derby over the likes of Silent Tactic and Litmus Test ... Worked 4 furlongs in 49.56 seconds at Palm Beach Downs on March 21 ... Won Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 7 ... In previous two starts, finished first in maiden race but was DQ’d (Paladin was elevated to first) at Big A on Oct. 17 and ran second in Remsen ... Owners: Robert Low, Lawana Low, Repole Stable ... Pedigree: Into Mischief-Spice is Nice, by Curlin ... Purchased for $975,000 at Keeneland September Yearling Sale 2024 ... Next race: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park, March 28 ... No. 19 on Derby points leaderboard (25). Derby future wage odds: 13-1.
Moves off bubble into serious contender now that he’s the 2-1 favorite in a rugged Florida Derby (Commandment and Nearly are the next two betting choices) ... A win or runner-up finish secures his spot in the Derby, which would be just his third career start ... Would give Mott a chance to win second straight Kentucky Derby ... Owners: Michael Ball, Katherine Ball ... Pedigree: Constitution-A La Lucie, by Medaglia d’Oro ... Not sold at public auction ... Next race: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 28 ... No. 20 on Derby points leaderboard (25) ... Derby future wager odds: 8-1.
Edged longshot Pavlovian by a head to win Louisiana Derby and give Brown yet another Derby contender as trainer seeks his first win in the Run for the Roses ... Louisiana Derby was just his second career start (he’s 2-for-2) and colt earned 100 Derby qualifying points ... Owner: Klaravich Stables ... Pedigree: Candy Ride-Wild Empress, by Empire Maker ... Purchased for $185,000 at 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale ... Next race: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 2 ... No. 2 on Derby points leaderboard (100) ... Derby future wager odds: 33-1.
Pulled clear and won Jeff Ruby Steaks by 2 ½ lengths to move into the top spot on the Derby points leaderboard ... Race was run on synthetic surface (Tapeta), but it has produced Derby winners in the past including Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Rich Strike in 2022 ...Owner: St. Elias Stable, Starlight Stable ... Pedigree: Liam’s Map-Callmethesqueeze, by Awesome Again ... Purchased for $425,000 at the 2024 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale ... Next race: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 2 ... No. 1 on Derby points leaderboard (110) ... Derby future wager odds: 89-1.
Richard Rosenblatt is an award-winning journalist and former Associated Press Horse Racing Editor. Currently, he serves as the news editor at US Racing, overseeing exclusive content from contributors worldwide.
