Two years ago, Mystik Dan and Brian Hernandez, Jr. stayed on the rail throughout an eight-length runaway in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park. Three months later, they used the same tactics, saving every inch of ground to take the Kentucky Derby (G1) at odds of 18-1 in a three-horse photo with Sierra Leone and Forever Young.
Mystik Dan was the first to hit the Southwest-Derby double since future Hall of Famer Smarty Jones did it in 2004. The 2021 Belmont Stakes (G1) hero Essential Quality is the only other Southwest winner to earn a trophy in a Triple Crown race.
Oaklawn will run the 1 1/16-mile Southwest on Friday, six days after it was postponed by inclement weather. It goes as the 11th race, with post time 5:40 p.m. ET. The first five finishers will receive Derby qualifying points on a 20-10-6-4-2 sliding scale. But if the past is prologue, and it often is, think twice about making a Derby future bet on its winner.
This edition of the Southwest has 13 runners, amplifying the chaos factor in the handicapping equation. Eliminating the no-hopers is the first step in solving a challenging puzzle.
Toss 30-1 shots Reclamation, Spirit of Royal, and Circle Tap, recent maiden winners making the ultimate class jump. I’ll also throw out Rancho Santa Fe (15-1), who ran poorly last out in a weak renewal of the Smarty Jones Stakes. Other rejects are Silent Tactic (20-1) and Baytown Dreamer (30-1), a distant second and third, respectively, in that race. Neither has won on dirt. Sleepingonfreedom (30-1, post 14) was fourth in the Smarty Jones. No chance.
There’s a lot of speed in the Southwest, with wild card D’code (3-1) perhaps the fastest. He has the field’s top Beyer Speed Figure (99), but expecting him to wire the Southwest in his second career start is a huge ask. The morning line screams underlay. Bricklin (20-1) and Soldier N Diplomat (post 13, 12-1) have early speed and could be pace casualties.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has won the Southwest six times. He scratched 5-2 morning-line favorite Litmus Test but still has a solid contender in Buetane (4-1). The son of Tiz the Law never has tried two turns but was second to 2-year-old champion Ted Noffey in the 7-furlong Hopeful Stakes (G1) and to So Happy in the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2). He’s a stalker with good tactical speed and will appreciate the class relief.
Strategic Risk (9-2) dominated the Smarty Jones Stakes by 4½ lengths after an easy trip, tracking a soft pace before drawing clear. As a course-and-distance winner who crushed weaker fields in his last two by a total of 13½ lengths, he’ll be overbet for white-hot trainer Mark Casse. I won’t be putting any money on him.
Closer Liberty National (10-1) surged late for second after encountering trouble in the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner Stakes at the Fair Grounds. A solid pace would help him, a must-use in trifectas and superfectas.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
