Derby Day will be here before you know it, the one time of the year when everybody is a horse racing fan.
It’s also the time to pull out the bankroll and peel off some serious money. We’ve been staked to $500 to invest in the 2026 Kentucky Derby, and we’ve sharpened our handicapping pencils.
Post positions are drawn, the morning line is set, jockey assignments are sorted, and most of the serious training has concluded. All that’s left is a Mint Julep (or two), a few bars of “My Old Kentucky Home” and a resolute countenance as we lay down our bets.
Let’s start the process by identifying the US Racing top contenders in ranked order with a brief note on their strengths and weaknesses.
Love that juicy morning-line on the horse to beat. He’s a winner, having captured his last four starts, including the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1). He showed class and determination, pulling out those races by a neck and a nose. Commandment started the winning streak with a maiden victory right here at Churchill Downs, so familiarity with the track will not be an issue. His stalking style should keep him in range of the leaders. He is one of a trio in here for trainer Brad Cox, who won the 2021 Derby with Mandaloun via a disqualification.
If you believe Commandment is the horse to beat, then you can’t overlook The Puma, who came up a nose short behind him in the Florida Derby. He is a key value play as the bettors haven’t warmed to him. He won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at 7-1 and offered the same price again in the Florida Derby. Gustavo Delgado has been down this road before, having won the 2023 Derby with Mage.
Renegade is the morning-line favorite; unfortunately, he drew the rail. The last Derby winner from the inside slot was Ferdinand in 1986. In a 20-horse field with everybody jockeying for position, it is hard to get a clean, clear trip from the fence. With a better post, we’d move him up in our rankings. He was the dominant winner of the Arkansas Derby (G1), so the quality is there. Todd Pletcher, his trainer, is a two-time Derby winner.
So Happy looks like the best of the West Coast contingent following his win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He has plenty of early speed to put himself in a good early spot, and his jockey, Mike Smith, certainly has a wealth of experience. Smith, a two-time Derby winner, holds the record for Derby mounts with 28. If he wins, Smith, 60, would surpass Bill Shoemaker as the oldest Derby-winning rider.
Further Ado is one of the Brad Cox-trained trio in here with Commandment and Fulleffort (20-1); this guy might be the most puzzling horse in the field. His races at Keeneland were spectacular: a 20-length maiden win and an 11-length romp in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). His other efforts never approached the Keeneland wins, but he did take the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs in late November.
Chief Wallabee will have only his fourth career start, but he is certainly progressing in the right direction. Trainer Bill Mott will add blinkers, usually added to coax more speed, to the colt who tackled Commandment in his last two outings: a neck loss in the Fountain of Youth and a half-length defeat in the Florida Derby.
We start by going old school, back to the basic straight wagers. The Derby is one of the few races each year where there is value to be had in the win-place-and-show pools.
Good Luck!
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
