Stephen Foster, one of America’s greatest songwriters, born on July 4, 1826, became quite familiar with this country’s first national sport, horse racing.
In 1850, he produced “Camptown Races,” whose catchy melody and clever lyrics made it wildly popular. It still is, because, according to Genius.com, it has received more than 926,000 internet page views. Three years later, he had another hit with “My Old Kentucky Home,’’ the Kentucky Derby’s sentimental anthem, and in 1982, Churchill Downs named a race for him.
On Saturday, the 1 1/8-mile, $1 million Stephen Foster Stakes (G1) will award the winner a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) on Nov. 1 at Del Mar. This renewal of the Foster may be its best, featuring four Grade 1 winners, including Mystik Dan (Kentucky Derby), Sierra Leone (Classic), and Hit Show (Dubai World Cup).
Black Tie Affair (1991), Saint Liam (2005), Curlin (2007), and Gun Runner (2017) won the Stephen Foster and the Classic. Will there be a fifth sweep this fall?
Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. For those who bet on horse racing, here are a few tips that might help identify Saturday’s winner.
The field from the rail out, with trainer, jockey, and odds in parentheses:
Lightly raced 5-year-old (six wins in only 12 starts) is 0-for-3 in Grade 1s, a major negative in this loaded field. Likes the track and distance, and Cox owns Churchill, but 5-1 odds say underlay. Positive: Should be near the lead for pace-conscious Saez. Even with four stakes wins and a $2 million bankroll, he seems outclassed.
Only “disappointments” in six races were strong seconds in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and Haskell Stakes (G1) in third and fourth starts. Has unlimited potential and the most upside in the field. Good tactical speed but showed grit and versatility coming from far back to take a 7-furlong Grade 1 on the Kentucky Derby undercard. That should be a good setup for 9 furlongs, and he’s training steadily.
This 6-year-old warrior is easy to read. Unless it’s a Grade 1, where he’s 0-for-10, he’s a standout (11-for-22). Five wins at 1 1/8 miles, and if this were Grade 2 or Grade 3, he’d probably be the pick. Unfortunately, it’s not. Likely to go for the lead, but can’t see him lasting for more than a mile. Ran third in last year’s subpar Foster; just doesn’t class up.
The deserving favorite was in the money in all 10 lifetime starts. Deep closer is always pace dependent, and plodding third as a 1-5 favorite in season debut at Fair Grounds may be a cause for concern. Two wins at 9 furlongs, but he’s better at 10 – won the Classic, lost the Derby by a nose. As classy as they get, and unless the fractions are sluggish, he’ll be surging late.
Surprise hero of 2024 Derby broke a five-race losing streak last month in a second-rate Grade 3. That made him 3-for-4 at Churchill, but speed figures are weak, and he needs a perfect trip to beat top competition. Hernandez’s brilliant, ground-saving rides keyed this colt’s three stakes victories. Logic says don’t count on another, and even that might not be enough to win this.
6 HIT SHOW (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 9-2)
Shock the world is a sports cliché, but Hit Show’s 41-1 upset of odds-on Forever Young in the Dubai World Cup (G1) really did. Hit Show had just finished a distant third in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). The trip to Dubai seemed ill-advised until Hit Show came flying from far back to score by half a length. He’s 9-for-18, 4-for-9 at 1 1/8 miles and 2-for-5 at Churchill. Won’t win but could rally to be a non-threatening third.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
7 ASHCROFT (Sebastian Nicholl, Julian Leparoux, 30-1)
The illness-induced retirement of all-time great D. Wayne Lukas was a jolt to racing. “The Coach” never shied from taking shots in stakes with horses who, on paper, didn’t belong, and Ashcroft is in that category. He’s 2-for-12, with his career best in a $50,000 claimer, but he’ll be a sentimental favorite in his debut for Nicholl, Lukas’ longtime assistant.
Betting verdict: Toss
