Rodriguez' past performances, jockey, trainer, Belmont Stakes odds and full analysis heading into the third leg of the Triple Crown.
“Fresh horses win the Belmont” has become a popular mantra—and while there’s truth to it, Rodriguez is testing the limits of that theory with 6/1 Belmont Stakes odds, he is not the favorite. The front-running colt hasn’t raced since wiring a soft field in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct back on April 5. That gives him a lengthy nine-week layoff heading into the Belmont Stakes, much longer than what most winners of this race have had in recent history. Then again, few trainers manage layoffs like Bob Baffert.
Initially pointed toward the Kentucky Derby, Rodriguez was withdrawn due to a minor foot bruise. The team then pivoted toward the Preakness, but Baffert later decided that the turnaround time wasn't sufficient to get the colt ready. Instead, he’s been working steadily at Santa Anita, where his most notable breeze came on May 23—seven furlongs in a sharp 1:24.80. That effort gave Baffert the green light.
“He looked great,” Baffert told DRF. “We’ll see how he comes out of the work, but unless something changes, he’s going to the Belmont.”
A son of Authentic, the 2020 Horse of the Year, Rodriguez brings pure speed to this year’s field. He’s a one-run type who thrives when he can grab the early lead and control the tempo. On paper, he’s likely the lone true pacesetter in the race. If Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith can ration out that speed—setting comfortable fractions—Rodriguez could be the one they all have to catch turning for home.
But with Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza all looming with late kicks, Rodriguez will need more than just a clean break. He’ll need to conserve just enough to fend off a wall of closers in the Saratoga stretch.
Rodriguez never has run farther than 1 1/8 miles and never beat horses as talented as Sovereignty, Journalism or Baeza. Toss this likely pace casualty.
Notes: Baffert owns the Preakness (record eight wins) and the Derby (record-tying six victories) but hasn't dominated the Belmont Stakes. He's won it three times, with Point Given (2001) and Triple Crown heroes American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018). Smith, a 59-year-old Hall of Famer, won on Justify, Drosselmeyer (2010) and Palace Malice (2013). “Going in the wrong direction”: The 1921 Belmont was the first to be run counterclockwise.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
