Here is brief analysis of Baeza's past performances, jockey, trainer, Belmont Stakes odds and full analysis heading into the third leg of the Triple Crown.
It’s not often that a colt with just one win in five starts captures the attention of the racing world—but Baeza has managed to do just that. After barely making it into the Kentucky Derby field from the also-eligible list, the lightly raced closer made the most of his chance, surging late to finish a strong third. While he never looked like he’d catch Sovereignty, he was closing fast on Journalism, who would go on to win the Preakness Stakes.
Baeza didn’t have an easy journey in Louisville, either. He was wide early, buried in 15th after a half mile, then steadied and bumped on the turn before swinging out eight-wide in the stretch. Even with all that adversity, he showed he belonged—his final burst of speed was enough to validate the pre-race buzz. Not bad for a colt still eligible for a first-level allowance.
Before his Derby heroics, Baeza flew under the radar. He needed three tries to break his maiden and entered the Santa Anita Derby as a 14-1 outsider. Yet he outran expectations again, finishing second to Journalism by three-quarters of a length. Just a few weeks later at Churchill Downs, Baeza, at 13-1, was only a neck behind that same rival. It’s clear there’s not much separating them.
But it’s not just his performances that have people paying attention—his pedigree is exceptional. Baeza is a half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes champion Dornoch. All are out of Puca, a daughter of 2008 Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown. With those bloodlines, his days of long odds are likely behind him.
Trainer John Shirreffs decided to skip the Preakness and aim directly for the Belmont Stakes, giving his colt extra time to develop and recover.
“Baeza is what you dream about when you think of a thoroughbred,” Shirreffs said on May 24. “He’s very light on his feet and has an impeccable pedigree. He is very classy.”
Baeza doesn’t have to improve much to win the 1¼-mile Belmont, where he’s a serious contender.
Notes: For most trainers, the pinnacle of their career is a Kentucky Derby victory, but not for Shirreffs, an 80-year-old Vietnam War veteran who won it in 2005 with longshot Giacomo. His greatest success came with 2010 Horse of the Year Zenyatta, whose 19-for-20 career sent her to the Hall of Fame. Baeza is named for 85-year-old Braulio Baeza, a Panamanian who rode three Belmont winners and entered the Hall of Fame in 1976. His four-legged namesake worked 6 furlongs in 1:12.40 handily May 23 at Santa Anita.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
