Update 5/1/2025 5:37PM ET: Rodriguez scratched from Kentucky Derby, allowing Baeza to move into the 20-horse field
With the 151st Kentucky Derby (G1) set to go, horseplayers are dissecting the odds and post positions before placing their bets to cash on the Run for the Roses.
The field of 20 3-year-olds have completed their final workouts at Churchill Downs with owners and trainers ever optimistic about their chances of making Derby history.
From 3-1 favorite Journalism to a slew of 30-1 longshots, among them Chunk of Gold, Final Gambit, Flying Mohawk, Publisher, and Owen Almighty, the 1 ¼-mile race has boiled down to this: Will speed prevail or will closers run them down in the stretch?
Journalism, trained by Michael McCarthy, comes into the Derby on a four-race win streak, including the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5. Given his consistent form and dominance in the West Coast prep circuit, it's no surprise that six-time Derby winning rival trainer Bob Baffert says Journalism is a deserving favorite. Baffert has to Derby starters in Citizen Bull (20-1) and Rodriguez (12-1).
While Journalism commands top billing, the speedy Rodriguez and closers Sandman (6-1) and Sovereignty (5-1) are certain to attract considerable wagering interest.
Sandman displayed his closing prowess with a late run to win the Arkansas Derby (G1) for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse. His standout gray coat, plus some pop-culture relevance—thanks in part to co-owner and social media influencer Griffin Johnson—make him an attractive pick to beat the favorite.
Sovereignty, trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott and runner-up in the Florida Derby (G1), has established himself as a consistent performer with Churchill Downs experience on his resume. Mott is optimistic about his chances with his colt breaking from the No. 18 post.
Meanwhile, Rodriguez comes into the Derby off a gate-to-wire Wood Memorial (G2) victory. He brings early speed to the table out of post 4 and will be ridden by Hall of Famer Mike Smith, a two-time Derby winner. Along with several other speed horses, including stablemate Citizen Bull, he could help set a pace that could prove pivotal in deciding whether the front-runners can hold their own against closers in the stretch of a race longer than they’ve ever run before.
Grande comes into the Derby at 20-1 for the Hall of Fame tram of trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez. He ran a solid second in the Wood Memorial to gain late entry into the Derby. He’s improved in all three of his races and will be a wise-guy longshot for bettors.
International flair arrives in Luxor Cafe (15-1), one of two horses seeking to give Japan its first Derby victory (Admire Daytona is the other). Like Journalism, Luxor Cafe boasts a four-race win streak, including a win over UAE Derby (G2) Admire Daytona in a race in Japan. Luxor Cafe’s romp in the Fukuryu Stakes reinforces Japan’s growing influence on the international racing scene.
Beyond the top tier, several longshots round out the field. Flying Mohawk, runner-up in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), brings local interest thanks to his Louisville-based trainer (Whit Beckman) and co-owner Jayson Werth, a former Major League Baseball star.
Meanwhile, Owen Almighty, sixth in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), could generate a lot of interest despite 30-1 odds on the morning line. Getting the 1 ¼-mile Derby distance is a concern for everyone, especially for Owen Almighty’s trainer Brian Lynch, who at first opted for the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the Derby undercard but changed course after the Blue Grass.
Looking Ahead: Let the betting begin
Now that the betting is open and the post positions set, it’ll will be interesting to see how the final odds turn out when the horses leave the starting gate on Saturday – post time 6:57 p.m. ET.
Some post-position history: Sandman has the No. 17 post – horses leaving from that post are 0-for-42 in the Derby (the only post without a winner).
Many of the speed horses drew inside posts, including Citizen Bull, Neoequos, Rodriguez, and Luxor Cafe – good spots if they can break cleanly and get to the lead – while closers such as Sandman and Sovereignty drew outside posts – good spots for them as they can drop back a bit, avoid traffic, and then make a final push in the stretch,
Observers of the 2024 Derby will recall Mystik Dan’s victory from post No. 3 -- a reminder of how a good draw can make all the difference.
Leading the Kentucky Derby qualifying leaderboard with 130 points is Burnham Square (12-1), trained by Ian Wilkes. His decisive win in the Blue Grass Stakes his place in the gate and pushed his career tally to three wins in six starts. Though he’s not garnering the same attention as Journalism or Sandman, Burnham Square's consistency and late-season form cannot be overlooked.
With some long odds, perhaps longer by post time, Burnham Square is a compelling option to the favorites.
However, topping the leaderboard does not make a Derby winner all the time.
The last Derby winner that finished first on the leaderboard was California Chrome in 2014. Last year, Derby winner Mystik Dan was 17th on the final points leaderboard.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
