The roar of the Kentucky Derby crowd feels distant, but the true battle for the Run for the Roses unfolds right now in the quiet, chilly mornings across America’s premier training facilities. Top trainers meticulously design winter regimens, transforming raw talent into the staying power necessary to navigate the grueling mile-and-a-quarter on the first Saturday in May.
This period marks the critical juncture where mere prospects become legitimate Kentucky Derby contenders. For the astute bettor, this unseen work is pure gold, providing the most reliable, early indicators of a horse’s true potential before the points races kick into high gear. We delve deep inside the barns of Churchill Downs, Palm Meadows, and Santa Anita to show you exactly how this conditioning process shapes the current Kentucky Derby Odds and why studying these subtle changes helps you bet on Kentucky Derby futures with confidence. This is where you separate the pretenders from the genuine Triple Crown threats.
The Florida circuit, anchored by Hall of Fame trainer Todd A. Pletcher, is synonymous with meticulous conditioning and structured workouts. Pletcher's charges often follow a rigorous but predictable schedule, designed to peak exactly on the first Saturday in May. Top contender Ted Noffey, currently atop the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with a commanding 40 points, executes his works here.
Pletcher, along with Chad Brown (who conditions top-10 horse Paladin), favors long, stamina-building works over deep tracks. This approach focuses on conditioning the horse to handle the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance, prioritizing endurance and lung capacity over blazing speed figures in January. The goal is to build a deep foundation that can withstand the demanding three-race sequence of the Triple Crown prep races.
The West Coast, centered at Santa Anita Park, typically sees a different approach. Training here often emphasizes sharper, quicker speed to prepare horses for the fast pace and shorter stretch runs found in the California prep races.
We see horses like Mr. A.P. (trained by Vladimir Cerin, 15 points) and Intrepido (Jeff Mullins, 13 points) focusing on sharp, seven-furlong drills, often designed to mimic the acceleration needed coming into the stretch. The presence of powerful stables like Bob Baffert, who trains multiple contenders including Litmus Test, Brant, and Desert Gate, ensures intense morning competition. Mr. A.P.'s recent prominence, likely due to a strong winter performance, directly correlates with his sequence of blistering but shorter works.
The Mid-South circuit, which includes Oaklawn Park in Arkansas and Fair Grounds in Louisiana, offers a blend of East and West Coast styles. These tracks are often used by trainers like Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox, who prefer to keep their horses closer to their ultimate destination, Churchill Downs.
Horses like Spice Runner, trained by Steve Asmussen and sitting on 11 points on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, conduct their training here. The tracks can be demanding due to variable winter weather, often requiring workouts to be shifted or delayed.
This unpredictable element requires a highly adaptable training plan, which often breeds tough, durable horses. Brad Cox's Further Ado (10 points) is another key runner from this region, benefiting from the region's focus on grinding, long-distance training works.
| Position | Horse | Trainer | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ted Noffey | Todd A. Pletcher | 40 |
| 2 | Litmus Test | Bob Baffert | 19 |
| 3 | Mr. A.P. | Vladimir Cerin | 15 |
| 4 | Universe | Kenneth G. McPeek | 13 |
| 5 | Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 13 |
| 6 | Spice Runner | Steven M. Asmussen | 11 |
| 7 | Paladin | Chad C. Brown | 10 |
| 8 | Further Ado | Brad H. Cox | 10 |
| 9 | Incredibolt | Riley Mott | 10 |
| 10 | Napoleon Solo | Chad Summers | 10 |
| 11 | Express Kid | Wade Rarick | 10 |
| 12 | Chip Honcho | Steven M. Asmussen | 10 |
| 13 | My World | Brad H. Cox | 10 |
| 14 | Strategic Risk | Mark E. Casse | 10 |
| 15 | Brant | Bob Baffert | 9 |
| 16 | Balboa | Brittany T. Russell | 9 |
| 17 | Very Connected | Kenneth G. McPeek | 6 |
| 18 | Renegade | Todd A. Pletcher | 5 |
| 19 | Comport | Eddie Kenneally | 5 |
| 20 | Silent Tactic | Mark E. Casse | 5 |
Last Updated on 01/05/2026
The new leaderboard presents a fascinating picture of the current class:
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While the leaderboard gives us a points total, the futures market responds immediately to morning reports. Training reports can dramatically alter betting odds before a horse even runs in a primary stakes race.
For example, a horse like Paladin (trained by Chad Brown) was recently clocked with an incredible five-furlong work in 58.5 seconds at Palm Meadows. This display of raw speed immediately slashed his future odds from 40-1 down to 20-1, illustrating how morning works directly influence the betting public’s perception of potential. Keep an eye on the Baffert runners, like Litmus Test and Desert Gate, as their odds will be monitored closely despite their current points being relatively low.
The winter training months are all about building a foundation, and right now, the Florida-based horses, led by Ted Noffey, have a clear advantage in points, suggesting Pletcher's strategy has been executed to perfection.
However, the depth of talent, particularly from the fast-working California contingent like Mr. A.P., means the points standings are highly volatile. The real test begins when the 50-point races start in February. We'll be watching to see if the durability bred by the Mid-South's demanding weather can overcome the speed and class of the coastal circuits.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
