The Road to the Kentucky Derby always captivates horse racing fans, offering an intense nine-month preview of the world’s most famous two minutes in sports. Every September, the best two-year-olds in North America embark on a journey, relentlessly pursuing a spot in the starting gate for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
We stand now, in the heart of winter, looking at a Kentucky Derby leaderboard that already defines the structure of this year’s competition, separating the early successes from the ambitious chasers. This meticulous points system, designed by Churchill Downs, forces trainers to manage their young athletes with surgical precision, ensuring only the fittest and most proven horses secure their invitations.
Analyzing these early returns gives serious horseplayers the undeniable edge they need to lock in tremendous value. If you want to stay ahead of the curve, tracking these points becomes the most critical component of successful Kentucky Derby betting.
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Churchill Downs created the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, establishing a tiered point structure that selects the field of twenty colts and geldings. This rigorous system replaced the old reliance on graded stakes earnings, forcing horses to prove their merit specifically at the classic distance.
The Prep Season, which starts in the fall of the two-year-old year, features initial races like the Iroquois Stakes and the Champagne Stakes, awarding points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale to the top five finishers. However, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile offers the most significant early haul, distributing a massive 30-15-9-6-3 split. This race instantly catapults its winner and placed horses to the top of the Kentucky Derby contenders list, providing a comfortable buffer against the intense competition that defines the spring Championship Series.
As the calendar flips to the new year, the points escalate, reaching 20-10-6-4-2 in January races and finally hitting the crucial 100-50-25-15-10 scale in the final, deciding preps like the Florida Derby and the Santa Anita Derby.
The current Kentucky Derby leaderboard clearly shows the strategic importance of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, with a handful of horses establishing substantial separation from the crowded pack. The cutoff for the top 20 currently hovers around two points, demonstrating that even a minor stakes placing keeps a horse’s dream alive, though likely needing a significant win in the spring. However, the difference between the 10th-place horse (9 points) and the 1st-place horse (40 points) underscores the dominance of the early frontrunner.
This disparity confirms how effectively the points system rewards elite performances in the Grade 1 fall stakes. Handicappers aggressively study this initial spread, calculating which bubble horses possess the necessary pedigree and speed figures to close the massive gap when the points escalate in the upcoming Kentucky Derby prep races.
| Position | Horse | Trainer | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ted Noffey | Todd A. Pletcher | 40 |
| 2 | Mr. A.P. | Vladimir Cerin | 15 |
| 3 | Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 13 |
| 4 | Universe | Kenneth G. McPeek | 13 |
| 5 | Spice Runner | Steven M. Asmussen | 11 |
| 6 | Napoleon Solo | Chad Summers | 10 |
| 7 | Incredibolt | Riley Mott | 10 |
| 8 | Further Ado | Brad H. Cox | 10 |
| 9 | Litmus Test | Bob Baffert | 9 |
| 10 | Brant | Bob Baffert | 9 |
| 11 | Comport | Eddie Kenneally | 5 |
| 12 | Desert Gate | Bob Baffert | 5 |
| 13 | Blackout Time | Kenneth G. McPeek | 5 |
| 14 | Talkin | Danny Gargan | 5 |
| 15 | Very Connected | Kenneth G. McPeek | 5 |
| 16 | Soldier N Diplomat | Steven M. Asmussen | 3 |
| 17 | Vost | William Walden | 3 |
| 18 | Plutarch | Bob Baffert | 3 |
| 19 | Diciassette | Patrick L. Biancone | 2 |
| 20 | I Did I Did | Michael Maker | 2 |
Last Updated on 12/01/2025
Ted Noffey holds a commanding lead atop the standings with 40 points, establishing himself as the early individual favorite in the Kentucky Derby odds. Trainer Todd A. Pletcher executed a masterful campaign, culminating in the gray colt’s decisive victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar, the race that delivered the massive 30-point swing.
Pletcher consistently prepares his runners to peak during the two-year-old championships, and Ted Noffey demonstrated exceptional tactical speed and devastating finishing power in his Breeders' Cup triumph. The colt, sired by the classic powerhouse Into Mischief, already displays the maturity and stamina necessary to handle the Derby distance, making him a formidable early force. Investors looking to bet on Kentucky Derby futures must regard him as the current benchmark of quality.
Mr. A. P. occupies the second position on the leaderboard with 15 points, a total he accumulated through a combination of an early stakes win and a valuable runner-up effort to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Trainer Vladimir Cerin has expertly managed this colt’s development, choosing spots that maximize both experience and point accumulation. Mr. A. P. shows a grinding durability, often hitting the board against top-tier competition, a trait essential for navigating the chaos of a 20-horse Derby field. While he currently lacks the flashy knockout speed of the leader, his consistent performances against high-level opponents justify his status as a serious threat and an appealing option in the current Kentucky Derby futures markets.
Intrepido sits tied for third with 13 points, primarily deriving his tally from winning the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita. Trainer Jeff Mullins continues preparing the colt in California, a traditional launching pad for Derby success.
Intrepido excels at running over the demanding West Coast surfaces, deploying a powerful, late-closing rally that often overwhelms tiring rivals in the stretch. His 13 points represent a combination of that Grade 1 win and a minor placing, proving he handles the rigors of stakes competition. The connections carefully choose their spots for Intrepido, targeting the large point hauls available in the Western Kentucky Derby prep races during the winter and early spring.
Universe, conditioned by the reliable Kenneth G. McPeek, also holds 13 points, showcasing impressive consistency across multiple starts. This colt has earned his points through determined placings rather than a single knockout win, notably finishing second in both the Street Sense Stakes and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs.
Accumulating points through repeated, high-level efforts validates the horse’s ability to compete at the two-turn distance. McPeek knows the Derby trail intimately and utilizes these early races to season his horses, building a foundation of fitness and experience that often pays dividends in the longer, more stressful Championship Series races. Universe offers an intriguing profile for those researching value in the early Kentucky Derby odds.
Spice Runner rounds out the top five with 11 points, highlighted by his victory in the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs, the very first stakes race on the 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen, a Hall of Famer, consistently produces top-level runners, and Spice Runner quickly announced himself as a major player.
This colt, by champion sire Gun Runner, displays the tactical speed necessary to command a favorable position in a crowded race, making a brilliant move at the sixteenth pole in the Iroquois to secure the win. His early success at Churchill Downs is especially significant, giving him a proven track record over the very surface he will need to conquer on the first Saturday in May.
We cannot discuss the current leaderboard without acknowledging the elephant in the room: the powerful contingent trained by Bob Baffert. Horses like Brant (9 points), Litmus Test (9 points), and Desert Gate (5 points) consistently deliver massive performances in key Kentucky Derby prep races.
However, due to Churchill Downs's ongoing suspension, these horses currently remain ineligible to earn points or participate in the 2026 Kentucky Derby. They represent a massive chunk of talent that, if transferred to an eligible trainer or if circumstances change, would instantly reshuffle the entire Kentucky Derby leaderboard landscape. Serious bettors must closely monitor the status of these runners, as their removal or integration could significantly shift the dynamics of Kentucky Derby betting.
Below the top tier, a dense cluster of Kentucky Derby contenders holds five points or less, creating an intense "bubble" scenario. Horses like Comport (5 points), Talkin (5 points), and Blackout Time (5 points) need a breakthrough performance in the upcoming 20-point races like the Lecomte Stakes or the Holy Bull Stakes.
These horses have displayed raw ability, but the increasing point values demand superior finishing results. These smaller point earners will target the early winter stakes to leapfrog the competition, capitalizing on the higher payouts. We advise players to focus their analysis on which of these lightly raced colts demonstrate the best potential to stretch out effectively to longer distances, a non-negotiable requirement for the coming championship-level races.
The current landscape offers discerning bettors substantial opportunities in the Kentucky Derby futures pools. While Ted Noffey sits as the likely favorite, the second tier of horses, including Mr. A. P. and Intrepido, often present more attractive Kentucky Derby Odds. Betting in the futures pools requires foresight, allowing you to secure a high payout on a horse that currently holds 15-1 odds but might shorten dramatically to 5-1 after a major win in March.
We encourage you to study the pedigrees of the current leaders, paying close attention to horses sired by proven route influences like Into Mischief or Gun Runner, as their bloodlines support the grueling 1 ¼-mile distance. Disciplined, early wagering secures the best value before the massive 100-point races eliminate the most advantageous prices.
The 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby provides high-stakes drama, demanding sharp analysis and swift action from everyone watching the trail. The current Kentucky Derby leaderboard offers only a snapshot, but it gives us the essential information we need to begin formulating our winning wagers. The gap separating the elite horses from the bubble contenders only widens with each passing week, forcing trainers to push their colts toward the decisive 50- and 100-point races coming soon.
Do not wait for the post parade in May to start your Kentucky Derby betting strategy. You have access to critical information and must act on it today to maximize your edge. Stay tuned to US Racing, we deliver real-time odds shifts, expert analysis on every major prep race, and proprietary speed figures directly to your inbox, ensuring you bet on Kentucky Derby contenders with confidence and secure the best possible payouts before the value disappears.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
