Bob Baffert possesses a unique ability to peak his horses exactly when the Kentucky Derby prep races begin to offer meaningful points and prestige. This weekend, he sends out a formidable contingent across two states, targeting the Southwest Stakes in Arkansas and the Robert B. Lewis in California. Baffert’s dominance in the Robert B. Lewis is particularly staggering, as he has won the last seven consecutive editions of the race. This level of consistency creates a massive ripple effect in the 2026 Kentucky Derby betting markets, often forcing the odds on his runners into "odds-on" territory. When you bet on Kentucky Derby online, you must decide if you want to pay the "Baffert Tax" for a likely winner or hunt for value in the secondary markets.
The "Baffert Tax" describes the price compression that occurs when the betting public pours money into any horse carrying the Baffert brand. Because the Hall of Fame trainer wins at such a high percentage in these specific preps, bookmakers rarely offer generous prices on his top-tier talent. For example, Desert Gate enters the Robert B. Lewis as the 6-5 morning-line favorite despite a long layoff. This tax inflates the 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds for his stablemates and rivals, creating a vacuum where talented longshots offer twice the return they normally would. If you want to maximize your ROI, you must analyze whether the favorite’s probability of winning actually justifies the skinny payout.
Desert Gate represents the pinnacle of Baffert’s current West Coast arsenal and remains a focal point of Kentucky Derby futures discussions. This son of Omaha Beach showed immense talent as a juvenile, finishing a game second in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes. While he currently sits lower on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with only 5 points, his return in the Robert B. Lewis serves as a formal announcement of his Triple Crown intentions. Desert Gate possesses elite tactical speed, allowing him to sit just off the lead before pouncing at the top of the stretch. If he secures the 20 qualifying points available this Saturday, his 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds will likely plummet from 15-1 to 8-1 overnight.
While Desert Gate holds down the fort in California, Baffert sends Buetane to Oaklawn Park to test the waters in the Southwest Stakes. Buetane, a son of Tiz the Law, recently flashed brilliance with a runner-up finish in the San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs. The move to a two-turn mile in Arkansas provides the ultimate test of his stamina and maturity. Sharp bettors watching the Kentucky Derby contenders list recognize that Baffert often uses the Southwest as a launching pad for his elite "B-team" horses that eventually become "A-team" stars. Buetane’s current price in the 2026 Kentucky Derby betting pools offers slightly more breathing room than his stablemate, making him an attractive target for those who believe in the Baffert system but want a better price.
The Robert B. Lewis Stakes features a field of seven sophomores, but the shadow of the Baffert barn looms large over every entrant. Aside from Desert Gate, Baffert also saddles Plutarch, a horse that showed significant promise on the turf but now returns to the dirt surface. This internal stable competition often creates confusion for those trying to bet on Kentucky Derby online. If Desert Gate falters, Plutarch or the Jeff Mullins-trained Intrepido stand ready to capitalize. Intrepido actually defeated Desert Gate in the American Pharoah, yet he remains the second choice in many markets. This discrepancy highlights how much the Baffert name influences the current 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds.
The Southwest Stakes presents a much more chaotic betting environment compared to the California circuit. While Buetane brings the Baffert pedigree to Hot Springs, local heroes like Strategic Risk offer a compelling alternative for value seekers. Strategic Risk currently sits high on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard after a gutsy win in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Because the public focuses so heavily on the "Baffert Double," horses like Strategic Risk often fly under the radar in early February. If you are looking to diversify your 2026 Kentucky Derby betting portfolio, fading the Baffert favorite in Arkansas and backing a proven local commodity provides a high-upside strategy.
As the Kentucky Derby prep races progress, the points system creates its own market logic. Trainers with horses like Nearly (20 points) or Golden Tempo (20 points) can afford to be selective with their entries. However, Baffert’s current crop, including Desert Gate and Buetane, still needs to climb the rankings. This desperation for points often leads to "all-out" efforts in February, which savvy bettors use to their advantage. A horse with 0 or 5 points on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard will almost certainly run harder in a Grade 3 prep than a horse that has already secured its spot in the starting gate. This motivation factor is a crucial component of modern handicapping.
| Position | Horse | Points | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paladin | 60 | Chad Brown |
| 2 | Chip Honcho | 39 | Steve Asmussen |
| 3 | Golden Tempo | 35 | Cherie DeVaux |
| 4 | Silent Tactic | 25 | Mark Casse |
| 5 | Renegade | 25 | Todd Pletcher |
| 6 | Intrepido | 23 | Jeff Mullins |
| 7 | Universe | 23 | Kenny McPeek |
| 8 | Plutarch | 23 | Bob Baffert |
| 9 | Pavlovian | 20 | Doug O’Neill |
| 10 | Express Kid | 20 | Justin Evans |
| 11 | Nearly | 20 | Todd Pletcher |
| 12 | Talk to Me Jimmy | 20 | Rudy Rodriguez |
| 13 | Great White | 20 | John Ennis |
| 14 | Litmus Test | 19 | Bob Baffert |
| 15 | Soldier N Diploat | 13 | Steve Asmussen |
| 16 | Grittiness | 11 | Todd Pletcher |
| 17 | Carson Street | 11 | Brendan Walsh |
| 18 | Napoleon Solo | 10 | Chad Summers |
| 19 | Further Ado | 10 | Brad Cox |
| 20 | Strategic Risk | 10 | Mark Casse |
Last Updated on 02/24/2026
Bettors who engage with Kentucky Derby futures must look beyond the trainer’s name and focus on the bloodlines that handle the classic 1 1/4-mile distance. Desert Gate’s sire, Omaha Beach, was a Morning Line favorite for the Derby himself before an injury intervened. Buetane’s sire, Tiz the Law, won the Belmont Stakes and finished second in the Derby. These pedigrees suggest that both Baffert runners will have no trouble with the added distance as the trail moves toward the 100-point races in March and April. When you evaluate Kentucky Derby contenders, prioritize those with the physical frame and genetic stamina to thrive in the "Test of the Champion."
Successful horse racing investment requires disciplined bankroll management, especially during the volatile prep season. The 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds shift every weekend, and a single injury or poor performance can render a future ticket worthless. Experienced players often split their action between "sure things" like the Baffert favorites and "lottery tickets" on longshots that show high-speed figures. By spreading your 2026 Kentucky Derby betting across different prep paths (Florida, New York, Arkansas, and California), you insulate yourself against a single stable's collapse. This weekend’s "Baffert Double" attempt is the perfect time to practice this balanced approach.
While the headlines focus on the big barns, the "little guys" often provide the biggest payouts on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Keep a close eye on horses like Incredibolt or Cherokee Nation. These runners might not have the flashy win percentages of a Baffert trainee, but they possess the "grinder" mentality required to survive a 20-horse field at Churchill Downs. If Cherokee Nation can upset the Baffert trio in the Robert B. Lewis, his 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds will skyrocket in value. Monitoring the workout tabs and local clocker reports during these Kentucky Derby prep races can reveal which horses are physically peaking at the right moment.
The "Baffert Double" is more than just a trainer trying to win two races; it is a market-defining event that will set the tone for the entire spring. Whether you decide to back Desert Gate’s return or hunt for an upset with Buetane’s rivals, the time to act is now. As the points increase and the fields narrow, the generous prices currently available in the 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds will vanish. Don't let the "Baffert Tax" scare you away from the greatest betting opportunity in sports. Join the US Racing community of winners today, grab your specialized bonus, and place your winning wagers on the road to the roses.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
