We are two weeks away from the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland, with the prep races for the season-ending championships already in the books.
While we await the big show, action continues this weekend as Keeneland shines with a pair of stakes for 3-year-olds at 7 furlongs.
Let’s start with the $400,000 Raven Run Stakes (G2) for fillies where Mashallah is the deserving 8-5 favorite in a field of 12.
She has posted three straight dominant stakes wins, with the Prioress (G3) at Saratoga most recently. Mashallah prompted the pace from the start, took command on the turn, and rolled to a five-length score as the 2-5 favorite. That victory helped Manny Franco clinch his first riding title at the Spa.
Trainer Brendan Walsh and the JR Ranch ownership team then targeted the Raven Run Stakes as Mashallah’s next race rather than press her into the Breeders’ Cup against older rivals.
Overall, Mashallah is 4-for-5 with the lone loss coming when she stretched out to a mile at Churchill Downs. Otherwise, all her races have been 7 furlongs or less. It’s a snappy resume for the filly who fetched $1.25 million at the 2-year-old in training sales.
With all due respect to Mashallah, we’d like to beef up our tickets with some value runners. And this race has several, starting with Percy’s Bar (6-1). This is a homecoming for the filly best remembered for her disqualification from a victory last October in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) for bumping a rival in the stretch. She was placed second, reducing her Keeneland ledger to 2-1-0 in three starts, including a decisive win in the Ashland Stakes (G1) back in April.
She’s done well at other tracks, with second-place finishes at Saratoga in the Spinaway Stakes (G1) and the Test Stakes (G1), and a rallying third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Del Mar. At the end of the day, Keeneland is home, sweet home for Percy’s Bar.
An added edge: Jose Ortiz will be aboard for the first time.
Let’s round out our top three with Conceit (4-1), a Juddmonte homebred trained by Brad Cox. She also carries a three-race winning streak into the race, including the Dogwood Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs.
After much deliberation, we’re going for value, even though it means facing a well-bet and deserving favorite. Post time for the Raven Run is 5:16 p.m. ET.
| # | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Army's Marauder | Luis Saez | Chris Davis | 30/1 |
| 2 | Mythical | Emisael Jaramillo | Jorge Delgado | 12/1 |
| 3 | Hen Party | Rafael Bejarano | Eoin Harty | 20/1 |
| 4 | Coco Connect | Edgar Morales | John Ennis | 50/1 |
| 5 | Yo Fancy | Cristian Torres | Ian Wilkes | 30/1 |
| 6 | Percy's Bar | Jose Ortiz | Ben Colebrook | 6/1 |
| 7 | A Fine Chardonnay | Brian Hernandez Jr. | Ian Wilkes | 12/1 |
| 8 | Conceit | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Brad Cox | 4/1 |
| 9 | Mashallah | Tyler Gaffalione | Brendan Walsh | 8/5 |
| 10 | With a Kiss | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 20/1 |
| 11 | Movie Night | Flavien Prat | Will Walden | 9/2 |
| 12 | Star Actress | Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott | 30/1 |
The Perryville is the companion event for the boys, and it also has a standout favorite in Deep Flame (7-5) from the outside post in the 12-horse field.
The key to this race is a horse who isn’t running here: Englishman, who is Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) bound.
Deep Flame ran second to Englishman in the H. Allen Jerkins Memorial (G1) at Saratoga, finishing more than seven lengths clear of the third-place finisher. That effort stamped Deep Flame the class of this field.
Chief Wallabee (8-1) danced with the big boys this spring and summer but couldn't break through for a second career win. There was no shame in his game with a neck loss in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), a close third in the Florida Derby (G1), and two fourth-place finishes in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1).
If Deep Flame encounters trouble from the extreme outside post, Chief Wallabee could pounce for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.
For some longshot spice, add in Roscoe’s Brother (15-1), making his stakes debut after a 2-for-2 career start at Del Mar. We must confess, we are partial to horses named Roscoe.
Post time for the Perryville is 4:12 p.m. ET.
| # | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solitude Dude | Jose Ortiz | Joe Sharp | 6/1 |
| 2 | Trouble Calling | Luis Saez | Gregory Foley | 20/1 |
| 3 | Chief Wallabee | Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott | 8/1 |
| 4 | Roscoe's Brother | Emisael Jaramillo | Mark Glatt | 15/1 |
| 5 | American Man | Cristian Torres | Dallas Stewart | 20/1 |
| 6 | Dr. Kapur | Tyler Gaffalione | Saffie Joseph Jr. | 12/1 |
| 7 | Mo Koko | Jaime Torres | Francisco Rodriguez | 30/1 |
| 8 | I C Light | Axel Concepcion | Mark Casse | 30/1 |
| 9 | Street Beast | Luan Machado | Ben Colebrook | 20/1 |
| 10 | Doublecents | Francisco Arrieta | Brett Creighton | 10/1 |
| 11 | Obliteration | Flavien Prat | Steve Asmussen | 9/2 |
| 12 | Deep Flame | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Brad Cox | 7/5 |
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
