Except for Triple Crown heroes American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018), no horse has won the Preakness Stakes (G1) and the Belmont Stakes (G1) since Afleet Alex did it 20 years ago. If not for a rough trip in the Kentucky Derby (G1), Afleet Alex would have swept the series. The three were extreme outliers who had the talent and endurance to run big three times in five weeks.
Rarely do horses race in all three classics anymore, let alone excel in them. Derby winner Mystik Dan tried last spring, when he entered the Belmont off a solid second at Pimlico. The finale was too much for him as he finished a distant eighth. Which brings us to Preakness champion Journalism, who will try to match Afleet Alex's 2005 achievement.
That's a big ask, because 21st century history is against him. He's already run big three times in six weeks but hats off to his connections for taking a shot.
Trainer Michael McCarthy announced Sunday that Journalism would go in Saturday's 1 1/4-mile Belmont at Saratoga Race Course after watching him breeze a half-mile there in 47.54 seconds for regular rider Umberto Rispoli.
“I thought it was very good, more or less what we've seen all along," McCarthy said. “Got away from the pole nice and smooth, put in a decent run around the turn, and finished up the final quarter shading 24 seconds and galloped out strong.
“He's enjoying himself up here. I think he's very relaxed.”
For the seventh consecutive year, the Triple Crown isn't on the line, which seriously diminishes the buzz for the Belmont. But thanks to Journalism's presence, it's a much more intriguing race. His rematch with Sovereignty, who upset him at Churchill Downs, creates a compelling storyline. Fans of Journalism would love to see him win the rubber match with Sovereignty, but after three stressful, rough trips, starting with the Santa Anita Derby (G1), is it wise to bet him at relatively short odds? It's the old head vs. heart dilemma, and smart bettors don't lead with their heart, especially on an 8-5 morning-line favorite.
“I think sometimes with these good horses, you don't really find out until race day and the running starts,” McCarthy said. “With all of them, you can get fooled a lot, but he's a horse that I've thought could participate in all three races.”
Many consider Journalism the leader of the 3-year-old division, including the voters in the NTRA weekly top 10 poll who elevated him to No. 1 after the Preakness. If he can overcome Sovereignty and the improving Baeza in his fourth race in only nine weeks, he'll validate their support. It won't be easy.
Maybe this analysis of the eight-horse field will help you make the right wagering decision.
Closed strongly to take the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) by three-quarters of a length despite stumbling at the start and not changing leads properly in the stretch. Got away with those mistakes against a weak field whose runner-up, McAfee, looks like a one-turn horse. Makes big class jump against the 3-year-old heavyweights. Probably will pass tiring rivals and at best could complete the superfecta.
Betting verdict: Toss
The mantra is "Fresh Horses Win the Belmont," and Kentucky Derby hero Sovereignty has taken a five-week break, just like recent Belmont Stakes winners Dornoch, Mo Donegal and Essential Quality. Ran a career best at Churchill, where he may have liked the sloppy track more than Journalism and Baeza did. Speed figures aren't great, and he needs to win this to prove he's the best of his generation.
Betting verdict: Win contender
Free-running colt defeated an uninspiring bunch in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) before missing the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes because of a minor foot bruise. Both wins were wire to wire, and he should have the lead to himself unless up-and-comer Crudo presses him. In front as far as he goes until the big boys run past him.
Betting verdict: Toss
Co-owner Mike Repole's favorite race is the Belmont, which is why this overmatched colt is in the field. Showed nothing in the Peter Pan (sixth, beaten 10 lengths) and has no business being in a classic.
Betting verdict: Toss
5 CRUDO (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez), 15-1
Demolished the unlisted Sir Barton Stakes by 7 1/2 lengths on the Preakness undercard, his second straight runaway. Will be near the front early and might hasten Rodriguez's fade. Lack of experience (only his fourth start) and quantum leap in class are major hurdles for a colt who could make noise later in the season and might outrun his odds here.
Betting verdict: Worth $2 win and place bets if you like to stab.
6 BAEZA (John Shirreffs, Flavien Prat), 4-1
Ran big when third in the Kentucky Derby despite an eventful trip after slipping in off the also-eligible list. He was gaining late on runner-up Journalism, who's beaten him by only a neck and three-quarters of a length in their two meetings. He's 1-for-5 lifetime but gives the impression that his best is yet to come, and nobody is riding better than Prat. Maybe it's a mirage or maybe Saturday will be the day, and the price should be right.
Betting verdict: The pick
7 JOURNALISM (Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli), 8-5
Gifted, extremely game and giving all the right signals despite three stressful races in the past two months. Hard to root against him, and if he wins, he’ll have done something special, but it feels as if he might hit the wall in the stretch.
Betting verdict: Win contender but use underneath.
8 HEART OF HONOR (Jamie Osborne, Saffie Osborne), 30-1
Salvaged fifth-place purse of $60,000 in the Preakness Stakes by closing from ninth in the final furlong. It was a meaningless rally that almost nobody saw because Goal Oriented, Journalism and Clever Again were playing bumper cars. Won't be involved or do any better than he did at Pimlico.
Betting verdict: Toss
