In the weeks leading up to the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs on May 3, the USRacing Handicappers will lay out $100 worth of betting options on selected races.
The $1.1 million yearling purchase is long on potential but short on experience. This will be only his third start and stakes debut.
In this instance, "In Todd we trust". Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has won this race a record eight times. He is putting all his eggs in the Disruptor basket, so we’re going along for the ride.
Disruptor, 4-1 on the morning line, comes into this fresh from a 9 ¼- length maiden win on March 1. The improving pace figures suggest he will be prominent throughout. It’s a lot to ask of a colt, to make the leap from his first win to a Grade 1 stakes, but Pletcher rarely makes mistakes.
Pletcher has won three of the last four Florida Derbys. It’s hard to argue with success, so we’ll say, “Yes!”
Sovereignty, the 8-5 favorite for this Florida Derby, turned in one of the most visually impressive 2025 Kentucky Derby prep races victories thus far when he stormed home to win Gulfstream’s Fountain of Youth (G2) in his season debut with a last-to-first rally.
The eye-catching effort moved him squarely into the Derby mix, but things haven’t gone his way since then—no significant catastrophes but nagging annoyances that could knock him off his game.
This first issue: Sovereignty will need a new rider (it’ll be Manny Franco). Junior Alvarado, aboard for all four career starts, suffered a slight shoulder blade fracture Sunday in a racing spill and will be sidelined for several weeks.
The second issue is the outside post, which is always a concern in the short run to the first turn at 1 1/8-mile races at Gulfstream.
Sovereignty might be talented enough to overcome all that, but we’d like to see a better price to reward the risk.
Like Disruptor, Jimmy’s Daily is making his stakes debut here. He was a solid second most recently in his first try around two turns at Gulfstream. In a race where tactical early speed looks like the way to play, Jimmy’s Daily offers solid value at 12-1.
Never discount trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. in a Gulfstream stakes race. He has a knack for hitting the board, as when Neoequos ran third in the Fountain of Youth at 14-1.
Joseph is having another bang-up meet at his home track, winning at a 20% clip. His Florida-bred contender lacks the fancy pedigree of some other horses in here, but he possesses tactical speed and the rail.
That could be enough to put Neoquos in the mix at a healthy 10-1 price.
Total Investment: $102
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
