Bob Baffert continues to rewrite the history books at Santa Anita Park. On February 7, 2026, the Hall of Fame trainer secured a record-extending 14th victory in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes. This victory marks his eighth consecutive win in this specific prep, a feat that borders on the impossible in modern thoroughbred racing. His latest star, Plutarch, didn’t just win; he dismantled a field that included the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes winner, Intrepido. For bettors tracking the 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds, this performance serves as a massive wake-up call. Baffert’s dominance remains the single most influential factor in West Coast racing, regardless of any lingering legal headlines or eligibility debates.
We must analyze how Baffert handled Plutarch in the lead-up to this breakout. The son of Into Mischief took five tries to break his maiden, often looking immature and green. Baffert strategically ran him on the turf at Del Mar to build his fitness and confidence. This "unusual route" culminated in a dominant maiden win on the grass before the trainer switched him back to the dirt for the Lewis. This tactical shift paid dividends as Plutarch stopped the timer in 1:37.02 for the mile. If you look at the current 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds, you see Plutarch’s price collapsing. He moved from a longshot prospect to a legitimate top-tier threat, now sitting in a tie for third on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 23 qualifying points.
Plutarch now serves as the ultimate "litmus test" for the entire West Coast sophomore crop. By defeating Intrepido, who was the 6-5 favorite in many circles, Plutarch established a new baseline for speed and grit. Jockey Florent Geroux noted that the colt "gave another gear" when challenged in the deep stretch. This indicates that Plutarch possesses the mental fortitude required for the grueling 1 1/4-mile distance at Churchill Downs. Serious players looking at 2026 Kentucky Derby betting must use Plutarch’s Beyer speed figures as the yardstick. Any horse that cannot compete with Plutarch’s mid-race fractions of :47.65 and 1:11.35 likely won't survive the first turn in Louisville.
Even when Baffert’s horses face uncertainty regarding Churchill Downs eligibility, they dictate the betting markets. The 2026 Kentucky Derby betting landscape often revolves around Baffert because his stable contains the highest concentration of raw talent. When you bet on Kentucky Derby online, you aren't just betting on a horse; you are betting against Baffert's training program. His ability to peak horses in February and March creates a "Baffert tax" on the odds. Plutarch’s win essentially forces the rest of the field to play catch-up. If you ignored him in the Kentucky Derby futures pools when he was still a "turf horse," you missed the best value of the season.
Baffert himself drew a lofty comparison after the race, stating that Plutarch reminds him of his 2020 Derby winner, Authentic. This isn't just trainer hyperbole; the physical similarities and the tactical speed are evident. Authentic was a horse that could take a punch and keep swinging, much like Plutarch did when Intrepido tried to pull even in the lane. For those monitoring 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds, a comparison to a former champion is the ultimate buy signal. The market responds to these narratives, and Plutarch is quickly becoming the "poster boy" for the Baffert barn this spring.
The current Kentucky Derby leaderboard shows a fascinating logjam at the top. Silent Tactic and Renegade lead with 25 points, but Plutarch and Intrepido are breathing down their necks with 23 points each. This leaderboard is fluid, and the West Coast path typically offers fewer but higher-quality opportunities. Bettors must recognize that Baffert often enters multiple runners in these Kentucky Derby prep races to ensure he controls the pace. In the Lewis, he also ran Desert Gate and Cherokee Nation. While they finished fourth and fifth, their presence allowed Plutarch to find his rhythm.
| Position | Horse | Points | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Silent Tactic | 25 | Mark Casse |
| 2 | Renegade | 25 | Todd Pletcher |
| 3 | Intrepido | 23 | Jeff Mullins |
| 4 | Plutarch | 23 | Bob Baffert |
| 5 | Nearly | 20 | Todd Pletcher |
| 6 | Golden Tempo | 20 | Cherie DeVaux |
| 7 | Talk to Me Jimmy | 20 | Rudy Rodriguez |
| 8 | Litmus Test | 19 | Bob Baffert |
| 9 | Chip Honcho | 14 | Steve Asmussen |
| 10 | Soldier N Diploat | 13 | Steve Asmussen |
| 11 | Universe | 13 | Kenny McPeek |
| 12 | Grittiness | 11 | Todd Pletcher |
| 13 | Napoleon Solo | 10 | Chad Summers |
| 14 | Further Ado | 10 | Brad Cox |
| 15 | Express Kid | 10 | Wade Rarick |
| 16 | Strategic Risk | 10 | Mark Casse |
| 17 | My World | 10 | Brad Cox |
| 18 | Paladin | 10 | Chad Brown |
| 19 | Incredibolt | 10 | Riley Mott |
| 20 | Mesquite | 10 | Cherie DeVaux |
Last Updated on 02/09/2026
In Baffert’s world, the "second-stringer" is often a Grade 1 winner in any other barn. Desert Gate was the 6-5 favorite in the Lewis but missed the break. Baffert called him "one-dimensional," yet he still picked up five points for the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. This depth is why 2026 Kentucky Derby betting requires a comprehensive view of the entire Baffert roster. If you only focus on the winners, you miss the value in the "disappointed" favorites who might rebound in the next round of Kentucky Derby prep races.
Smart money is already moving into Kentucky Derby futures. These pools allow you to lock in prices that won't exist on the first Saturday in May. Currently, the "All Other 3-Year-Olds" field remains a popular choice, but individual 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds on horses like Plutarch are starting to normalize. By identifying these Baffert stars early, you avoid the late-market FOMO (fear of missing out). The Robert B. Lewis was the announcement; the next major West Coast prep will be the coronation.
Betting on a Baffert horse always carries a layer of administrative risk, but the performance on the track is undeniable. To mitigate this, successful gamblers diversify their portfolios by looking at other Kentucky Derby contenders like Renegade or Silent Tactic. However, the raw data suggest that Baffert’s horses are faster, stronger, and better prepared for the "Big Dance." When you decide to bet on Kentucky Derby online, ensure your platform offers competitive lines on Baffert’s entries, as they will likely be over-bet as we approach the Santa Anita Derby.
Baffert’s decision to fly in Florent Geroux specifically for Plutarch speaks volumes. Geroux is a world-class rider who knows how to handle high-pressure situations. This move suggests Baffert knew Plutarch was ready for a breakout. When analyzing 2026 Kentucky Derby betting trends, always look at who is getting the "live" mounts. A jockey of Geroux’s caliber doesn't fly across the country for a horse that doesn't have a legitimate shot at the roses.
The Road to the Kentucky Derby intensifies in March with 50-point and 100-point races on the horizon. Plutarch has already proven he can handle the "slugfest" style of racing. For those tracking Kentucky Derby contenders, the next month will determine who has the stamina to go ten furlongs. Plutarch’s pedigree (by Into Mischief out of the champion Stellar Wind) suggests that distance is an asset, not a liability.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds will never be as favorable as they are today. Bob Baffert’s 14th Robert B. Lewis win proves that his "monopoly" on West Coast racing is as strong as ever. Plutarch is no longer a sleeper; he is a verified powerhouse who just cleared a major hurdle on the dirt. Whether you are a seasoned handicapper or a casual fan, the time to act is now.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
