Betting against Mark Casse this winter at Oaklawn Park has been painful. Not only did the Hall of Fame trainer win with 18 of his first 41 starters (41%), but he swept the track’s first two Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races – the Smarty Jones Stakes (with Strategic Risk) and the Southwest Stakes (G3) (Silent Tactic).
Casse also took the Arkansas Derby (G1) last spring with Sandman, so on Sunday he’ll be seeking his fourth straight win in a Derby tuneup in Hot Springs. He’s entered Strategic Risk and Silent Tactic in the $1 million, 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes (G2).
\Even though Silent Tactic pulled a 12-1 upset in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes, he’s only the 9-2 third choice behind 8-5 morning-line favorite Blackout Time, who hasn’t raced in almost five months. He was a well-beaten second Oct. 4 in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) behind Ted Noffey, the eventual undefeated 2-year-old champion. Bone bruising led to Blackout Time’s scratch from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) four weeks later.
Blackout Time is only 1-for-3, so taking him at short odds is a risk not worth taking, though don’t expect him to go off as low as 8-5. He’s put in three solid workouts recently, but it’s very unlikely that trainer Kenny McPeek will have him fully cranked for his 3-year-old debut. The time to peak is the first Saturday in May, not the first Sunday in March.
Besides its six-figure purse, the Rebel offers Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the first five finishers on a 50-25-15-10-5 sliding scale. Eight of the 10 entrants have accumulated points – Silent Tactic (25); 7-2 second choice Litmus Test (19); 10-1 Soldier N Diplomat (13); 10-1 Strategic Risk (10); 8-1 Bravaro (10); Blackout Time (5) and 12-1 Rancho Santa Fe (5). Only 10-1 Class President, 20-1 Honey’s to Blame and 30-1 Time for Music have none.
The field could shrink to eight. Bravaro is cross-entered in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream, and Bob Baffert may wait to run Litmus Test on March 7 in Santa Anita’s San Felipe Stakes (G2). Litmus Test, who hasn’t raced since winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in mid-December, was an early scratch from the Southwest.
That race’s 1-2 finishers shape up as strong contenders. Silent Tactic, who rallied from last under Cristian Torres, surged past Steve Asmussen’s Soldier N Diplomat in the final yards.
“I thought Silent Tactic was impressive,” Casse said. “The pace wasn’t super-fast, so it wasn’t like the race crumbled late. He came running, and it looks like the farther the better for him.”
Assistant trainer Caden Arthur oversees Casse’s stable at Oaklawn. Silent Tactic’s half-mile breeze in 47 2/5 seconds on Feb. 1 pleased him.
“This was probably the best work I’ve seen from him,” Arthur said. “Normally, he’s not really the best work horse. He did it easily. Torres was standing up straight on him, not asking him at all.”
Although Silent Tactic drew away to beat him by 3¼ lengths, Soldier N Diplomat took a big step forward in the Southwest after finishing a distant second to Strategic Risk in the Smarty Jones. After showing good early speed from post 11 for Jose Ortiz, he stalked three wide throughout in third before taking a clear lead in midstretch. He looked like the winner until Silent Tactic blew by on the outside.
“I had good position approaching the second turn and somebody outside me made me go forward a little bit sooner than I wanted to,” Ortiz said. “But he ran big, and we’re very happy with that.”
1 Bravaro (Francisco Arrieta, Saffie Joseph, Jr.), 8-1
2 Litmus Test (Flavien Prat, Bob Baffert), 7-2
3 Class President (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher), 10-1
4 Blackout Time (Brian Hernandez Jr., Kenny McPeek), 8-5
5 Honey’s to Blame (Manny Esquivel, Kenny McPeek), 20-1
6 Strategic Risk (Javier Castellano, Mark Casse), 12-1
7 Silent Tactic (Cristian Torres, Mark Casse), 9-2
8 Rancho Santa Fe (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Brad Cox), 12-1
9 Time for Music (Keith Asmussen, Steve Asmussen), 30-1
10 Soldier N Diplomat (Jose Ortiz, Steve Asmussen), 10-1
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
