Oak Leaf Stakes Betting Analysis and Odds: Can Baffert Pull Off the Trifecta?

Oak Leaf Stakes Betting Analysis and Odds: Can Baffert Pull Off the Trifecta?

The $200,000 Oak Leaf Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita on Saturday is a test for 2-year-old fillies to find out if they can move forward to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at the end of the month.

The 1 1/16-mile Oak Leaf offers the winner an automatic berth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland. The race also is a prep for the Kentucky Oaks (G1), with qualifying points of 10-5-3-2-1 on a sliding scale going to the top finishers.

Oak Leaf History: Another Race Dominated by Baffert 2-Year-Olds

First run in 1969 during the original Oak Tree meeting, the race spent 2012–2023 as the Chandelier Stakes before reclaiming its historic name in 2024.

The Oak Leaf has served as a key West Coast steppingstone for juvenile fillies into both the Breeders’ Cup and the Kentucky Oaks the following spring. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert owns a record 14 victories and sends out a powerful trio again.

Notable winners include Hall of Famer Serena’s Song (1994), champion and BC Juvenile Fillies winner Stardom Bound (2008), two-time champion Songbird (2015), Blind Luck (2009), Landaluce (1982) and It’s In the Air (1978). Last year’s Oak Leaf winner Super Corredora later captured the BC Juvenile Fillies and earned her ticket back to the World Championships with her win in last week’s Zenyatta Stakes (G2).

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Odds Favor a Baffert Trifecta

A compact field of six has been entered for this year’s renewal, including three stars from Baffert’s powerful juvenile army (he also has four entered in the American Pharoah Stakes on Saturday).

Holmby is the 9-5 second choice for Baffert and will be ridden by Ricky Gonzalez. The Indiana-bred Corniche filly has won two of three starts; she broke her maiden at 5 furlongs, then won the 6-furlong Sorrento Stakes (G3) as the 4-5 choice at Del Mar over the summer. In the Del Mar Debutante (G1) last out, she stalked three-wide and finished a clear third but 8 ¼ lengths behind standout stablemate Miss Monica. A tactical stalker stretching out for the first time, she looks like the one to beat.

Quattro Passi (5-2), a dark bay daughter of Girvin trained by Baffert for Debbie Lanni, drew the rail with Hall of Famer Mike Smith set to ride. In her second career start, she demolished a Del Mar maiden field by 9 ¼ lengths going 6 furlongs on Sept. 6, earning big speed figures. The filly, named for a restaurant on the Amalfi Coast, figures to sit off the pace or stalk and should handle the added distance if her late kick translates around two turns.

Deluge, the 8-5 morning-line favorite, completes Baffert’s three-horse entry. The Maximus Mischief filly, who will be ridden by Juan Hernandez, won her debut going 6 furlongs at Del Mar on Aug. 28 and will be stretching out for the first time and is expected to show early speed. A modest figure leaves her with something to prove, but Baffert first-timers stretching out have historically been dangerous.

Free Closer (6-1), the lone California-bred, is trained by Michael McCarthy for Reddam Racing and will be ridden by Joel Rosario. The Pavel filly has two wins from four starts, including the CTBA Stakes at Del Mar, and she most recently finished fourth in the Del Mar Debutante. She has shown both speed and a closing kick and represents the main hope to upend Baffert’s plan for a 15th winner in the race.

Domain Expansion (20-1) is a maiden by Speaker’s Corner who finished second on debut in a Del Mar maiden special weight on Sept. 5 for trainer Leonard Powell and makes a giant leap into this spot. She will be ridden by Adrian Escobedo, and though she has shown some late interest, she will need to show more to threaten the Baffert trio.

Janie Not Jeanie (20-1), a Mandaloun filly trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Kazushi Kimura, remains a maiden after four career starts. She was second in a Santa Anita maiden in June, then most recently third at Los Alamitos. She will need a significant improvement in both figure and running style to factor at this level.

The Oak Leaf is race 3 with a post time of 5:01 p.m. ET.

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The Picks: 1 Holmby 2 Quattro Passi 3 Deluge

The Field for the $200,000 Oak Leaf Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

#HorseJockeyTrainerOdds
1Quattro Passi (KY)Mike E. SmithBob Baffert5/2
2Holmby (IN)Ricardo GonzalezBob Baffert9/5
3Domain Expansion (KY)Abel EscobedoLeonard Powell20/1
4Free Closer (CA)Joel RosarioMichael W. McCarthy6/1
5Janie Not Jeanie (KY)Kazushi KimuraDoug F. O'Neill20/1
6Deluge (KY)Juan J. HernandezBob Baffert8/5
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