American Pharoah Stakes Odds, Analysis and Picks: Hughes Looks to Stay Perfect

American Pharoah Odds, Analysis and Picks: Hughes Looks to Stay Perfect

Whatever the name, be it the Norfolk Stakes, the FrontRunner Stakes, and now the American Pharoah Stakes, a promising 2-year-old trained by Bob Baffert is a good bet to end up in the winner’s circle.

The Hall of Fame trainer has saddled 13 winners off this 1 1/16-mile race dating back to 1997. That’s a 44.8% win rate.

On Saturday, Baffert not only sent out unbeaten Hughes as the 4-5 morning-line favorite in the American Pharoah (named for Baffert’s 2015 Triple Crown winner), he also entered three others in a field of six – Imperial Honor (9-5), Emancipate (10-1) and Domus (8-1).

“It's the next step, to stretch them out, and it's a step up for the Breeders' Cup to see what they do," Baffert told bloodhorse.com. “A lot of questions are answered in these races. They all look good breaking their maidens, but the second out is very important.”

Trainer Doug O’Neill sends out Dang Son, and Antonio Garcia goes with Net Par, both at 12-1, to round out the field.

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Breeders’ Cup “Win, and You’re In” and Kentucky Derby Prep

The winner earns an automatic berth in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland on Oct. 30. The race is also a Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race, with the top five finishers earning points on a 10-5-3-2-1 sliding scale.

Can Hughes Live Up to 4-5 Odds in American Pharoah?

Hughes, named for Jack Hughes, the U.S. Olympic Team star, has done everything right so far. The Into Mischief colt has won his three races by a combined margin of 18 ½ lengths. In his debut, he dueled for the lead through the backstretch and then pulled away for a six-length win at 5 furlongs at Los Alamitos on June 21.

He was moved up to stakes company and went gate-to-wire in taking the Best Pal Stakes (G3) at Del Mar by 7 ¾ lengths on Aug. 8. A month later, Hughes took the lead in the stretch and won by 4 ¾ lengths.

Juan Hernandez, who has been aboard all four of Baffert’s entries, will stick with Hughes, who breaks from post 2.

Imperial Honor won in his only start, a front-running 5 ¼-length win at Del Mar on Sept. 7. Emancipate broke his maiden at second asking, winning at Del Mar on Aug. 29. Domus is 1-for-2, winning in his debut and running fourth to Hughes in the Del Mar Futurity.

Dang Son comes in off a third-place finish in the Del Mar Futurity, while Cal-bred Net Par is 2-for-4, most recently a distant second in the I’m Smokin Stakes at Del Mar on Sept. 7.

American Pharoah (Stakes) History

The race was first contested in 1971 as the Norfolk Stakes, then was renamed the FrontRunner Stakes in 2012 for a popular dining and seating area at Santa Anita – and a shift in track management. It became the American Pharoah Stakes in 2018 – three years after Baffert’s champion won the Triple Crown.

Baffert has won six of the last editions of the American Pharoah – Citizen Bull (2024), Muth (2023), Cave Rock (2022), Corniche (2021), Eight Rings (2019) and Game Winner (2018).

Post time for the American Pharoah at 7:04 p.m. ET

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The Picks: 1 Hughes, 2 Dang Son, 3 Domus

The Field for the $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes (G1), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

# Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Dang Son (KY) Edgard J. Zayas Doug F. O'Neill 12/1
2 Hughes (KY) Juan J. Hernandez Bob Baffert 4/5
3 Net Par (CA) Victor Espinoza Antonio C. Garcia 12/1
4 Imperial Honor (KY) Joel Rosario Bob Baffert 9/5
5 Emancipate (KY) Mike E. Smith Bob Baffert 10/1
6 Domus (KY) Kazushi Kimura Bob Baffert 8/1
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