It’s called “the Ascot of the North,” and when that track was being rebuilt in 2005, Royal Ascot was staged at York Racecourse. This week Yorkshire’s 294-year-old showplace is hosting its marquee meet, the four-day Ebor Festival.
Friday’s feature is the 5-furlong Nunthorpe Stakes (G1), a “Win and You’re In” event for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) Nov. 1 at Del Mar. A deep, talented field of 19 was entered for a straight run down a lefthanded layout that tends to favor speed and inside posts (lower numbers).
“I always think you want to be drawn low rather than high,” England-based commentator Jess Stafford said on FanDuel TV.
That was the case in Wednesday’s opener, a 5-furlong handicap in which the winner and runner-up came from posts 7 and 4, respectively, in a field of 20. It didn’t hold true in the day’s other 5-furlong cavalry charge, whose 1-2 finishers started from gates 14 and 19. No trend works all the time, but in the long run it makes sense to pay attention to them.
With no rain in the forecast, the turf will stay firm, so let’s try to find Nunthorpe runners that like fast ground. Here’s a list of logical contenders with program numbers (different from post positions) and morning-line odds:
He’s familiar to American horseplayers after his close second at 27-1 odds in last year’s 5-furlong BC Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) at Del Mar. Likes firm turf and just won a Group 2 at the Curragh. (Post 9)
Five-year-old mare won her first two starts this year at 5 furlongs in Group 3 and Group 2 before finishing second by two lengths to Arizona Blaze. (Post 7)
Talented teaser with a serious case of seconditis – four consecutive runner-up efforts, three by less than a length – in 5-furlong graded stakes. Win contender and a must-use in exotics. (Post 11)
Recent Group 2 winner at Goodwood has two seconds and two thirds in graded stakes at York. In the money in last six races, winning twice. (Post 13)
Beaten favorite (fifth) at the Curragh has a Group 3 win on firm going at 5 furlongs. Playable longshot. (Post 14)
Fell a neck short of winning 20-runner, 5-furlong Group 1 at Royal Ascot on firm turf, her preferred footing, where she ran first and second against lesser. (Post 6)
In a huge field like this one, the favorite probably will go off at 9-2 or better. Unless you’re convinced that it’s worth taking a stand with one horse, maybe you could bet three mid-priced runners and/or longshots to win. If one comes in, you can make money off a race in which you have no firm opinion. That happens more often than you’d think.
For those who bet horse racing ...
