It’s a few days out from the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1), and it appears wet weather could be a huge factor in determining who can handle an off-track, be it muddy or sloppy.
The forecast for Louisville on Saturday is calling for temperatures in the mid-60s and about a 40% chance of showers during the early afternoon, with partly cloudy skies and a 20% chance of rain right around post time, which is 6:57 p.m. ET (NBC Sports).
The Churchill Downs track conditions can change the entire setup of a race, especially with a full field of 20 3-year-olds charging out of the gate with wet dirt or mud flying all over the place.
With that, here’s a look at the Derby contenders who have dealt with a wet track – most of them at 30-1, at least for now:
Won the Wood Memorial (G2) over a fast track on April 5 at Aqueduct, but under showery conditions.
Won over a sloppy track at Evangeline Downs in his first career start last July 25; won the Jean Laffit Stakes over a muddy track at Delta Downs on Nov. 28.
Has yet to win a race in seven starts but ran third over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs on Sept. 27 and second over a muddy track on Dec. 29 at Oaklawn Park.
Ran eighth over a sloppy track in a maiden race on Sept. 27 at Churchill Downs; broke his maiden over a muddy track (beating Publisher) on Dec. 29 at Oaklawn Park.
Two of his first three starts came in showery conditions – second over a firm turf on Sept. 1 at Kentucky Downs and fifth in the Pilgrim (G2) on a yielding turf Sept. 28 at Aqueduct. This will be his first start on dirt.
Although the track was listed as fast, Grande ran second behind Rodriguez in showery conditions in the Wood Memorial (G2) on April 5 at Aqueduct.
In his first race, at Gulfstream Park over a sloppy track, he was bumped at the start and lost his rider. He won an allowance race over a sloppy track on Jan. 23 at Gulfstream.
The first year it rained on Derby Day was 1890 (track listed as muddy). and the track was listed “muddy.” The track has been listed as fast on 105 Derby Days (70%) despite at least a bit of precipitation for 71 of 150 editions (47.3%).
Fast: 105 (Mystik Dan, 2024)
Good 11 (Unbridled, 1990)
Muddy 7 (Sunday Silence, 1989)
Sloppy 9 (Country House, 2019, via DQ of Maximum Security)
Wet-Fast (Always Dreaming, 2017)
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
