Nashville Derby Betting: Do Europeans Have the Edge?

Nashville Derby Betting: Do Europeans Have the Edge?

Welcome to the land of crazy purse money … also known as Kentucky Downs. The track, located about 45 minutes north of Nashville, runs a 7-day meet of turf races every year with the lure of outrageously lucrative purses. A case in point: the $3 million Nashville Derby Invitational (G2) on Saturday for 3-year-olds going 1 5/16 miles around the oddly shaped course.

The $3 million purse makes it one of the richest in North America. There is a caveat: the full $3 million is only available to horses bred in Kentucky, which covers eight of the 12 entrants. The other four runners contest $1.75 million—not exactly chump change.

With a huge purse on the line for a long-distance grass race, the four European-based runners figure to dominate the proceedings. They’ve come a long way and don’t plan on going home empty-handed.

Glacius (4-1) looks to have the upper hand. Trained in England by Hugo Palmer, Glacius shipped to Saratoga last month to post a front-running victory in the Saratoga Derby (G1). He has the advantage of being fully acclimated to U.S. racing.

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Aidan O’Brien’s Causeway 5-2 Favorite in 12-Horse Field

Ireland’s champion trainer Aidan O’Brien, who rarely skips a big-money grass event on these shores, sends out Causeway as the 5-2 morning line favorite. After winning the King Edward VII (G2) at Royal Ascot, Causeway was a disappointing seventh in the Grand Prix de Paris (G1) over soft ground at Longchamp while solidly backed at 3-1 odds. Perhaps the footing was not to his liking. He’ll undoubtedly find firmer footing in this spot for his rebound bid.

Gostam (6-1) is Germany’s hope here. He ran poorly most recently in the German Derby (G1), finishing 10th.

Nil Bua Gan Dua (10-1) won a minor stake last time out in Ireland for Joseph O’Brien, the son of Aidan.

Who is the best U.S. hope? Perhaps it is Fancy Sailor (8-1), the recent winner of the Water Tower Stakes at Ellis Park. The rest appear hard-pressed to keep pace with the Europeans.

Post time is 5:36 p.m. ET for the Nashville Derby.

The Picks: 1 Glacius, 2 Causeway, 3 Fancy Sailor

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The Field for the $3 million Nashville Derby Invitational (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

# Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Royal Causeway (KY) C A Torres D Stewart 20/1
2 Royal Guard (KY) F Geroux B H Cox 8/1
3 Glacius (GB) L Saez H Palmer 4/1
4 Caroline St Beat (NY) T Gaffalione M Clement 20/1
5 Versailles Road (KY) J R Velazquez T A Pletcher 12/1
6 Causeway (IRE) R L Moore A P O'Brien 5/2
7 Fuzzbuster (KY) M Gutierrez V H Oliver 20/1
8 Fancy Sailor (KY) B J Hernandez, Jr. B A Lynch 8/1
9 Gostam (GER) A Fresu A Wohler 6/1
10 Go Grey (KY) J L Ortiz M J Maker 20/1
11 Nil Bua Gan Dua (KY) B Curtis J P O'Brien 10/1
12 Blackmail (KY) J Castellano M E Casse 15/1

Last Updated on 09/02/2026

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