Everyone is confident and cautious. The owners. The trainers. The jockeys. No matter the odds, no matter the opposition, no matter the weather, they all have a chance to win the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1).
Favorites win. Longshots — and we mean longshots — win. On top of that, in the past four years, two first-place finishers were disqualified.
Longshots have won past 5 Derbys; favorites prevailed 6 previous years
A year ago, a dark cloud hung over Churchill Downs as 12 horses died at the track ion the days before, during, and after the Run for the Roses.
As well, Also, the Derby favorite Forte was scratched hours before the race by stet veterinarians due to a bruised foot.
So here we are at the 150th Derby, where safety is the major priority under the new Horseracing Integrity and Security Authority (HISA) tasked with monitoring whether a horse is fit to run.
With added technology, more vets at the track, and horses on site eight days out rather than five, the HISA staff, working with track officials, believes it is equipped to detect any potential problems.
Millions will be watching from home and 125,000 plus-fans will be at the track cheering for whichever they bet to win. Everyone, though, will be on pins and needles hoping for a safe day at the races.
Derby post time is 7:03 p.m. ET (NBC coverage begins at 2:30 p.m.)
Weather: Could be a muddy track
Weather could play a big role in the outcome. The National Weather Service is calling for a 70% chance of rain with a possible thunderstorm after 2 p.m. ET. Later, there’s a 60% chance of showers and a possible thunderstorm before 8 p.m. Temperatures range from a high of 77 degrees in mid-afternoon, dropping to about 61 in the early evening.
Fierceness, Sierra Leone top two betting choices
Sierra Leone
When the 20-horse gate springs open Saturday night, Fierceness will likely be the betting favorite for two-time Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher and three-time Derby winner John Velazquez, both Hall of Famers.
The Florida Derby (G1) winner leaves from post 16 and the plan is to get near the front without any early jostling for position. He won at first asking over a muddy track at Saratoga and ran seventh over a sloppy track in Champagne (G1) at Aqueduct in his second start.
The likely second-betting choice is Sierra Leone for trainer Chad Brown and jockey Tyler Gaffalione. The $2.3 million colt is a deep closer, and after breaking from post 2 you’ll probably find him well back in the pack for much of the race before barreling down the stretch. Sierra Leone is a mudder – he was a closer second to Dornoch in a muddy Remsen (G2) and won the Risen Star (G2) in slop.
Cox, Prat (aboard Catching Freedom) hope to cross finish line first
Catching Freedom. Coady Photo.
Catching Freedom, the Louisiana Derby (G2) winner, gives both trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat a solid chance to win a Derby, this time by crossing the finish line first.
Cox trained Mandaloun, who ran second in the 2021 Derby but was declared the winner after Medina Spirit was disqualified for a medication violation a week later; Prat’s Derby win came in 2019 with Country House, who finished second behind Maximum Security, who was DQ’d for interference.
“We’re looking forward to crossing the wire first,’’ said Cox, who also sends out Just a Touch. “We didn’t experience the thrill of victory with being placed first through a DQ. We’re looking forward to finishing first someday, hopefully Saturday, and experience that thrill.”
Japan bids for first Derby win
Forever Young. Coady Photo.
Forever Young, winner of the UAE Derby (G2) and unbeaten in five races, gives Japan a good shot at winning the Derby for the first time. The colt seems comfortable after the long journey to America, but he’s a huge question mark – can he run a winning race at 1 ¼ miles against a lineup of Grade 1 winners over a wet track?
West Saratoga gets trainer Demiritte to first Derby
There are many intriguing storylines in this Derby, highlighted by Larry Demiritte, the trainer fighting cancer who sends out West Saratoga. He’ll be the first Black trainer in 35 years to saddle a Derby starter and could be the first Black trainer or jockey to win since 1902 with Jimmy Winkfield.
“I feel like I’m representing a lot of people,’’ he said.
Lukas, 88, goes for fifth Derby win
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas goes after his fifth Derby win with Just Steel, a viable contender who ran second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) behind Muth.
No Baffert, no Baffert-trained horses in Derby
Which leads us to who won’t be at the Derby: six-time winner and Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. He trains Muth and several other top 3-year-olds but remains suspended by Churchill Downs, Inc, since his Medina Spirit was disqualified after finishing first in 2021.
Upgrades to Derby purse, paddock area
Churchill Downs boosted the Derby purse to $5 million for this 150th Derby, with the winner earning $3.1 million. The track also unveiled its new $200 million paddock area, loaded with luxury suites and cocktail lounges.
Celebrities, fashionistas, and Mint Juleps will be everywhere, and so will the betting windows. With rain in the picture, the odds could drop on the likes of Dornoch and Mystic Dan, the Southwest Stakes (G3) winner over a muddy track.
Unfolding the race
Look for the Dornoch, leaving from post 1, Track Phantom, T O Password, and Fierceness to be up front early. Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Stronghold, Wood Memorial (G2) winner Resilience, Domestic Product, Just Steel, and Just a Touch should be in the next group, followed by at least a half dozen others, including Sierra Leone, Mystic Dan, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, and Endlessly.
When the field turns for home, depending on the pace, the closers will put in their runs, and if the pace was fast, the leaders will have a tough time holding on.
Saffie Joseph, Jr. returns to Churchill Downs
Saffie Joseph Jr.
Saffie Joseph, Jr. is back in the Derby with longshot Catalytic, a distant second to Fierceness in the Florida Derby. A year ago, he was preparing Lord Miles for the Derby before two of his other horses died at Churchill Downs; he was suspended, and Lord Miles was scratched.
He’s just happy to be back, even if he’s not as confident about winning as just about everyone else.
“On paper, it’s hard to see that he [Catalytic] can win,” Joseph said. “But in racing, you have to have a hope and a dream.”
The picks: 1 Just a Touch 2 Sierra Leone 3 Dornoch
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
