One of the cleanest Win and You're In spots on the fall calendar lands at Belmont Park this Saturday. The Grade 1 Frizette Stakes is a $500,000 juvenile filly showdown at one mile, and the winner punches a direct ticket to the BC Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland on October 30 through the Dirt Dozen program. Seven fillies. Nobody with a graded stakes win. A dominant debut winner as the chalk. This is the kind of race where the price matters as much as the pick.
Let's get into it.
| # | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Revenge of the Sis (KY) | Edgard J. Zayas | George Weaver | 9-2 |
| 2 | She's a Twelve (NJ) | Dylan Davis | Kelly J. Breen | 20-1 |
| 3 | Girls Wear Pearls (KY) | J. E. Morelos | Jena M. Antonucci | 20-1 |
| 4 | Libby Lloyd (KY) | Flavien Prat | Chad C. Brown | 85 |
| 5 | Dotsy (KY) | Kendrick Carmouche | John A. Grabowski | 6-1 |
| 6 | Rum Twist (KY) | Paco Lopez | Mark A. Hennig | 3-1 |
| 7 | Velora (NY) | Manuel Franco | Linda Rice | 7-2 |
Last Updated on 10/03/2026
Morning line odds via BUSR. Check BUSR for live odds and past performances before you bet.
Start with Libby Lloyd, because that is where the market starts. Chad Brown dropping a Flavien Prat-ridden Into Mischief filly into a Grade 1 off a 10-length debut score at Saratoga is not something you ignore. That Saratoga win on August 15 had the kind of visuals that get people excited, and the connections are absolutely legitimate. Brown has won this race before. Prat knows Belmont Park. Post 4 is clean. None of that is in question.
The question is whether 8-5 is the right number for a filly making her stakes debut, stretching from debut distance to a one-turn mile, in a race where the field quality is thin enough that a well-seasoned rival can show up and take over late. As BloodHorse noted, "much more will be learned" about Libby Lloyd here. That phrase does real work when you're laying 4-5 on a filly who has run exactly once.
She is the top pick at America's Best Racing and the likely favorite per ITM's Saturday roundup. The respect is warranted. But this is a race where you want to be a little creative with your structure.
Rum Twist at 3-1 is the most logical upset threat, and the case is straightforward. Mark Hennig sends her out with Paco Lopez in the irons from post 5, sitting right outside the favorite. She has seen seven furlongs before. The stalk-and-pounce style is well-suited to the one-turn mile at Belmont, where a horse can track just off the pace through the turn and get clear in the stretch without much traffic drama. That pace scenario plays directly into her strengths.
The seasoning gap between Rum Twist and Libby Lloyd is real. When a debut winner stretches out for the first time in graded company, there are a lot of unknowns, and a horse that has already navigated those unknowns and come out the other side ready to run has a structural edge. At 3-1, you are getting a fair price on a filly who fits the spot.
Velora at 7-2 is the exotics piece worth building around. She is the only two-time winner in this field. Nobody in a seven-horse field has graded stakes experience, which levels the playing field and benefits horses with a deeper form cycle. She stalks from post 6; she has shown she can close into a pace, and the outside post in a one-turn race is not a liability. For Pick 4 players, she belongs on the ticket.
Revenge of the Sis at 9-2 is worth a trifecta look if you believe the pace gets honest early and the closers have a chance to roll. She sits just outside the chalky prices and gives you a little extra return if she fires.
Here is a practical exotic structure to consider:
For those building multi-race sequences, the Frizette is the kind of race where you use Libby Lloyd and Rum Twist together as a pair and single elsewhere. Don't try to save money by dropping either one. The field is thin enough that either one can win, and the BC Juvenile Fillies implications mean connections won't leave anything in the barn. Check the race of the week at US Racing for any added value on Saturday's card.
For context on the broader path these fillies are chasing, the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf is a parallel division running at Keeneland the same weekend, and understanding both divisions helps you frame the value in the Frizette winner's trip to the Breeders' Cup.
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The Frizette Stakes is a designated Win and You're In race for the BC Juvenile Fillies through the Dirt Dozen program. The winner earns an automatic berth into the BC Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland on October 30, 2026, without needing to navigate the points leaderboard. That makes every dollar in this field running to win, not just to finish.
Libby Lloyd is the 8-5 morning-line favorite, trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat from post 4. She won her career debut by 10 lengths at Saratoga on August 15 and is an Into Mischief filly making her stakes debut in the Grade 1. America's Best Racing and ITM both list her as the top choice, though her short form and chalky price make her a use-alongside rather than a single for most exotic bettors.
The 2026 Frizette Stakes is a Grade 1 race worth $500,000 run on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at Belmont Park. The distance is one mile on the main track. It is part of Belmont's all-stakes juvenile showcase on a blockbuster day of racing. Verify post time and updated odds at Equibase before placing any wagers.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
