Analysis of the 14 horses set to run in Saturday’s Classic
It’s the Super Bowl of dirt racing, the 1¼-mile showdown for glory and megabucks. The $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is the grand finale and often the kingmaker, with 15 of its winners voted Horse of the Year.
Yet Saturday’s 41st Classic at Del Mar may not determine the ultimate award. Unless Fierceness wins, superstar filly Thorpedo Anna could get it if she takes the Distaff. If both lose, all kinds of scenarios come into play. If the Classic goes to Ireland’s City of Troy or Japan’s Forever Young, then what?
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Time to examine the nuts and bolts and make an educated guess about the Classic’s outcome. Here’s a horse-by-horse analysis from the rail out, with jockey, trainer and odds in parentheses:
$7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), post time 5:41 p.m. ET
2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds, Post Positions and Betting Picks
1 FOREVER YOUNG (Ryusei Sakai, Yoshito Yahagi, 6-1)
Japan-based colt could be the best 3-year-old to have run in America this year. Lost the Kentucky Derby by two noses after being mugged through the stretch by Sierra Leone. That’s his only loss in seven starts, with two wins at 1¼ miles. Yahagi, the only Japanese trainer to win a Breeders’ Cup race, took two in 2021 at Del Mar. He’s a bargain if you get 6-1, which is unlikely.
Betting verdict: Win contender
2 HIGHLAND FALLS (Luis Saez, Brad Cox, 20-1)
Son and grandson of Classic heroes Curlin and Awesome Again enters off a Grade 1 victory in second-rate Jockey Club Gold Cup. This is a massive class jump.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
3 CITY OF TROY (Ryan Moore, Aidan O’Brien, 5-2)
O’Brien, one of the top trainers in history, has called the son of 2018 Triple Crown champ Justify his best horse ever. The Irish genius is 0-for-17 in the Classic, among the few marquee events he hasn’t won multiple times, and he thinks this is his best chance.
Making your dirt debut in the Classic is a monumental reach, but City of Troy may be good enough to pull it off. Moore and O’Brien are kings of the world, so a win would be no shock.
Betting verdict: Win contender
4 MIXTO (Kyle Frey, Doug O’Neill, 30-1)
Was 1-for-13 lifetime before 22-1 shocker over course and distance in very weak Pacific Classic, Grade 1 in name only. No chance.
Betting verdict: Toss
5 SENOR BUSCADOR (Joel Rosario, Todd Fincher, 30-1)
Deep closer struggled twice in California after winning $20 million Saudi Cup and running third in Dubai World Cup. Pace dependent and 0-for-4 at 1¼ miles but could slip into the trifecta or superfecta if the fractions are hot.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
6 DERMA SOTOGAKE (Christophe Lemaire, Hidetaka Otonashi, 20-1)
He’s 0-for-3, beaten 27 lengths, since his second at 26-1 odds in last year’s Classic. This field is way better. Gets first-time blinkers after sluggish fifth in prep in Japan. Off form, seems up against it.
Betting verdict: Toss
7 USHBA TESORO (Yuga Kawada, Noboru Takagi, 12-1)
Buzz horse at 7-2 for last year’s Classic but ran fifth after a slow start. That was his only time out of the exacta in 10 starts the past two years, and was second in all three 2024 starts. He’s 4-for-6 at 1¼ miles and belongs in all exotics.
Betting verdict: Use underneath, with small win bet as a saver
8 PYRENEES (Brian Hernandez Jr., Cherie DeVaux, 30-1)
A not-close second in both Grade 1 tries, and career highlight was winning Grade 3 Pimlico Special. Handles distance but speed figures don’t measure up.
Betting verdict: Toss
9 FIERCENESS (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher, 3-1)
Brilliant in-and-outer finally proved he could win back-to-back races with gritty performance in Travers. Holding off superstar Thorpedo Anna was impressive, but she was gaining on him late. Needs a trouble-free trip, and losing 1¾ lengths in final furlong of 1¼-mile Travers suggests he may not want to go that far.
Betting verdict: Win contender
10 TAPIT TRICE (Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd Pletcher, 30-1)
Erratic but talented colt is 0-for-3 (total margin 19½ lengths) at 10 furlongs and 0-for-5 in Grade 1 since winning subpar 2023 Blue Grass. Like most Tapits he’s improved with age, going 2-for-3 in stakes at 4. The 30-1 line looks too high, and he could inflate the exotics with the wily Ortiz riding.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
11 SIERRA LEONE (Flavien Prat, Chad Brown, 12-1)
Self-defeating enigma is 8-for-8 in the money but burned plenty with three straight defeats at 8-5, 4-5 and 8-5. He’s earned $2,368,000 after costing $2.3 million as a yearling, so at least his owners are breaking even. Distance is no problem, but bad habits (lugging in, mainly) keep undercutting his potential.
Betting verdict: Finally offering good odds, so he’s worth an across-the-board play, especially if you’ve been losing with him at short odds.
12 ARTHUR’S RIDE (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott, 15-1)
Need-to-lead type and likely pacesetter faded to fifth as 4-5 chalk last time in only Grade 1 at 1¼ miles. In front for as long as he lasts, probably upper stretch.
Betting verdict: Toss
13 NEWGATE (Frankie Dettori, Bob Baffert, 20-1)
Son of perennial leading sire Into Mischief lost a three-horse photo in Grade 1 California Crown. That was 1 1/8 miles but he did win the 1¼-mile Santa Anita Handicap. Training brilliantly, and late-pace figure last out is the field’s best. Collaboration of giants Dettori and Baffert makes an upset feel possible.
Betting verdict: Longshot win contender
14 NEXT (Luan Machado, William Cowans, 8-1)
Marathon man is a wild card who may be overbet. Won seven straight at 1½ miles or longer by loping along on an easy lead, but he’ll have to go a lot faster early against the best field he’s ever faced. If he tries, he’ll probably fade. If he can’t get to the front, he won’t be a factor.
Betting verdict: Toss
Also-eligible
RATTLE N ROLL (Jose Ortiz, Kenny McPeek, 30-1)
Deep closer will be in over his head if he scratches in. He’s 4-for-4 in Grade 3 but 0-for-6 in Grade 1 and 2.
Betting verdict: Toss
For those who bet horse racing …
The picks: 1 Forever Young 2 City of Troy 3 Newgate 4 Sierra Leone
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
